长江电力长期投资价值分析

发布时间：2018-03-16 05:09

本文选题：投资价值　切入点：行业分析　出处：《山东大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,我国的证券市场虽然得到了长足发展,但依然未能摆脱非成熟市场所固有的弊端,价值投资理念淡薄、投机气氛浓厚、概念跟风炒作盛行等问题依旧存在。其中一个重要原因就是我国证券投资市场投资主体结构不合理,中小散户占比过大。中小散户往往不注重对标的公司基本面的分析,不注重对标的公司内在价值的分析,盲信盲从,追涨杀跌。本文以水电行业中的长江电力股份有限公司为例,探索如何对公司基本面进行分析,如何对公司内在价值进行评估。首先结合我国经济和能源发展的概况对水电行业的发展前景进行了论述,然后对长江电力公司的基本情况和竞争优势进行详尽分析,最后在对长江电力财务状况进行分析和预测的基础上,运用市盈率(PE)法、市净率(PB)法和均值估价法分别对长江电力的投资价值进行了计算。得出的结论是,水电行业是成长性良好的行业,长江电力公司当前价值偏低,极具长期投资价值。本文的创新点在于在分析常用价值评估方法的基础上,扬长避短,首次提出了均值估价法的估值模型。均值估价法以市净率法为基础,继承了其简单易懂、便于操作的优点,同时更注重对资产的持续盈利能力的评估；其借鉴经济增加值法,引入了“预期收益率”概念,强化资本的时间价值,但同时尽力避免过于复杂的计算过程；同时又借鉴贴现现金流量法的优点,注重对公司未来价值影响因素的分析,在对公司未来现金流和现金分红能力考量的同时,巧妙采取均值计算的方法来避免预测的复杂性、尽量保证预测的准确性。均值估价法是基于广大中小散户知识水平参差不齐、时间精力有限的特点,所提出的一种较为通俗易懂的公司价值评估方法,希望能对引导散户养成理性投资和价值投资的投资习惯、提高投资水平有所帮助。
[Abstract]:In recent years, although the securities market of our country has made great progress, it still can not get rid of the defects inherent in the immature market, the concept of value investment is weak, and the atmosphere of speculation is strong. One of the important reasons is that the structure of the investment main body in China's securities investment market is unreasonable, the proportion of small and medium-sized retail investors is too large, and small and medium-sized retail investors often do not pay attention to the analysis of the fundamental aspects of the underlying companies. Do not pay attention to the underlying value of the company analysis, blind faith blindly follow, chasing rise and fall. Taking Changjiang Electric Power Co., Ltd in hydropower industry as an example, this paper explores how to analyze the fundamentals of the company. How to evaluate the intrinsic value of the company. Firstly, the development prospect of hydropower industry is discussed in combination with the general situation of economic and energy development in China, and then the basic situation and competitive advantage of the Yangtze Electric Power Company are analyzed in detail. Finally, on the basis of analyzing and forecasting the financial situation of Changjiang Electric Power, the paper calculates the investment value of Changjiang Electric Power by using the method of P / E ratio (P / E), P / E ratio (P / B) and mean value respectively. Hydropower industry is a good growth industry, the current value of Yangtze River Power Company is low, and has very long-term investment value. The innovation of this paper is that on the basis of analyzing the common valuation methods, the author puts forward the valuation model of the mean valuation method for the first time, which is based on the price-to-book ratio method and inherits its advantages of being simple and easy to understand and easy to operate. At the same time, it pays more attention to the evaluation of the sustainable profitability of assets, which uses the economic added value method for reference, introduces the concept of "expected rate of return", strengthens the time value of capital, but tries to avoid the too complicated calculation process at the same time. At the same time, we draw lessons from the advantages of discounted cash flow method, pay attention to the analysis of the influencing factors of the company's future value, and at the same time, skillfully adopt the method of average value calculation to avoid the complexity of prediction while considering the company's future cash flow and cash dividend ability. To ensure the accuracy of the prediction, the mean value evaluation method is based on the wide range of small and medium-sized retail investors' knowledge level is uneven, limited time and energy, the proposed a relatively easy to understand the company value evaluation method, Hope to guide retail investors to develop rational investment and value investment habits, improve the level of investment.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F275;F426.61;F832.51

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