管理者过度自信与上市公司现金股利分配行为的实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-18 17:09

本文选题：管理者过度自信　切入点：股利分配行为　出处：《北京工商大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：现金股利分配行为是上市公司是否分配股利及分配方案设计与讨论的各利益主体行为。如何制定现金股利政策关系到企业、债权人、债权人等多方市场参与主体的利益，其在本质上体现了不同市场参与者之间以合作和竞争的方式相互博弈的结果，而管理者作为上市公司现金股利分配行为的主要执行主体之一，管理者过度自信必然会影响到现金股利分配行为。中国资本市场起步较晚但发展迅速，上市公司在现金股利分配上的非理性行为尤为明显，，市场上充斥着不分配、超能力派现和高送转等异常现象。根据传统的基于理性范式的股利理论已无法完全解释这些股利分配中的异常现象，这迫切需要学者挖掘出中国上市公司的股利政策的一个全新的研究视角，对上市公司现金股利分配行为做出全新的阐释。基于心理学研究成果对经济人假设的放松和行为公司金融的发展，经济人非理性假设被引入到公司现金股利分配行为的研究领域，对现金股利分配的各种异常现象表现出了强大的解释力。非理性是人类心理与行为偏差的重要特征，是管理层的一种普遍现象。目前我国上市公司大部分都是由国有企业改制而来，存在公司治理结构不完善，国有产权所有者的虚置，“一股独大”与“内部人控制”等问题。公司内部治理机制不健全、外部治理机制几乎缺失的条件下，上市公司管理者在现金股利决策行为中扮演着绝对主导的角色，管理者非理性表现得更为突出，严重影响了上市公司的绩效和创值能力。管理者非理性的研究内容较多，考虑过度自信是管理者非理性行为中最为普遍、得到最为系统确认的行为偏差，本研究将把管理者非理性行为仅局限于过度自信行为，进而研究管理者过度自信是否会对现金股利分配行为的影响及影响路径。本文首先对股利政策及管理者过度自信进行了介绍和界定，随后对各学者的现金股利政策研究按照理性范式及行为范式进行分类及整理，为下文的研究奠定理论基础；同时对我国现金股利分配现状及特点进行了分析；运用理论模型分析，在相关假设及上市公司管理者决策函数的基础上，推导出上市公司管理者过度自信对现金股利分配行为的影响路径；最后以中国A股上市公司2005-2011年数据，对上市公司管理者过度自信与现金股利分配行为之间的关系进行了Logistic模型和OLS模型的实证检验。理论模型和实证研究结果发现，上市公司管理者过度自信显著影响现金股利分配行为，上市公司管理者过度自信更倾向于不分配现金股利或少分配现金股利，且上市公司管理者过度自信程度越强，现金股利支付水平越低，管理者过度自信的上市公司更倾向于实行较为保守的现金股利分配行为。
[Abstract]:The behavior of cash dividend distribution is the behavior of the main body of interest whether or not the listed company allocates dividend and the design and discussion of the distribution scheme. How to formulate the policy of cash dividend is related to the interests of enterprises, creditors, creditors and other multi-party market participants, such as enterprises, creditors, creditors and so on. In essence, it reflects the result of game between different market participants in the way of cooperation and competition, and the manager is one of the main executive bodies of cash dividend distribution behavior of listed companies. Overconfidence of managers will inevitably affect the behavior of cash dividend distribution. China's capital market starts late but develops rapidly. The irrational behavior of listed companies in cash dividend distribution is particularly obvious, and the market is full of non-distribution. According to the traditional dividend theory based on rational paradigm, the abnormal phenomena in dividend distribution can not be fully explained. It is urgent for scholars to dig out a new perspective of dividend policy of listed companies in China and to explain the behavior of cash dividend distribution of listed companies. Based on the relaxation of the hypothesis of economic man and the development of corporate finance, the irrational hypothesis of economic man is introduced into the research field of the behavior of corporate cash dividend distribution. Various abnormal phenomena of cash dividend distribution show a strong explanatory power. Irrationality is an important feature of human psychological and behavioral deviations. It is a common phenomenon of management. At present, most of the listed companies in China come from the reform of state-owned enterprises, and the corporate governance structure is not perfect. Under the condition that the internal governance mechanism of the company is not perfect and the external governance mechanism is almost missing, Managers of listed companies play an absolute leading role in cash dividend decision-making, and the irrational performance of managers is more prominent, which seriously affects the performance and value creation ability of listed companies. Taking into account that overconfidence is the most common behavior of managers and the most systematically confirmed behavior deviation, this study will limit the irrational behavior of managers to overconfidence behavior. Then the paper studies whether the manager overconfidence will affect the behavior of cash dividend distribution and the influence path. This paper first introduces and defines the dividend policy and managers' overconfidence, then classifies and arranges the research of cash dividend policy according to rational paradigm and behavioral paradigm, which lays a theoretical foundation for the following research; At the same time, the present situation and characteristics of cash dividend distribution in China are analyzed, and the theoretical model is used to analyze, on the basis of relevant assumptions and the decision function of the managers of listed companies, The influence of overconfidence of managers on the behavior of cash dividend distribution in listed companies is deduced. Finally, the data of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2005 to 2011 are given. The relationship between manager overconfidence and cash dividend distribution behavior in listed companies is tested by Logistic model and OLS model. The theoretical model and empirical results show that overconfidence of managers of listed companies significantly affects the behavior of cash dividend distribution, and managers overconfidence of listed companies tend not to distribute cash dividends or to distribute cash dividends less. Moreover, the stronger the degree of overconfidence of managers, the lower the level of cash dividend payment, and the more conservative behavior of cash dividend distribution is preferred for overconfident managers.
【学位授予单位】：北京工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F275;F832.51;F272.9

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