我国证券分析师盈利预测准确性的影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-03-18 21:20

本文选题：证券分析师　切入点：盈利预测　出处：《暨南大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近十几年来，我国资本市场得到了极大的发展，证券分析师作为资本市场的参与者之一，在其中扮演的角色越来越重要。证券分析师是一类拥有着专业的知识和技能的高素质群体，他们分析并研究搜集到的关于上市公司的各类数据信息，做出盈利预测和投资评级，然后向投资者发布投资建议。一方面，证券分析师是上市公司各类信息的使用者，另一方面，证券分析师提高了企业管理层与投资者之间的信息沟通效率，起到了桥梁的作用。分析师的预测信息既能对投资者的投资决策产生影响，从而一定程度上影响着市场的资源配置效率，还会对企业信息和股票价格之间的传导机制产生一定的作用。鉴于盈利预测的重要性，，本文着重研究哪些因素会对证券分析师盈利预测准确性产生影响。本文对证券分析师及其盈利预测的概念进行了界定，以我国证券分析师对A股上市公司2005-2010年度的每股收益预测数据为样本，研究我国证券分析师盈利预测的准确性，从公司特征因素和分析师自身因素两个大的方面出发，利用多元回归的实证研究方法,对证券分析师盈利预测准确性的影响因素进行了研究。研究结果表明：我国证券分析师对上市公司的每股收益盈利预测存在一定的误差，而且存在较明显的乐观估计倾向。另外，对同一家公司做出预测的券商机构家数、机构投资者持股比例、无形资产占比与分析师的盈利预测准确性显著正相关，分析师预测的时间跨度、盈余管理动机、资产负债率、盈余的可预测性与分析师的盈利预测准确性显著负相关，而券商规模、分析师的经验和分析师的声誉等因素与预测的准确性的关系不显著。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China's capital market has been greatly developed. As one of the participants in the capital market, securities analysts, Securities analysts are a group of highly qualified people with professional knowledge and skills who analyze and study the various types of data they collect about listed companies, making profit forecasts and investment ratings. On the one hand, securities analysts are users of all kinds of information in listed companies, and on the other hand, securities analysts improve the efficiency of information communication between corporate management and investors. The forecast information of the analyst can influence the investment decision of the investor, and thus affect the resource allocation efficiency of the market to some extent. In view of the importance of earnings forecast, this paper focuses on which factors will affect the accuracy of earnings forecast of securities analysts. This paper defines the concept of securities analysts and their earnings forecasts, and takes the earnings per share forecast data of China's securities analysts for the year 2005-2010 as a sample to study the accuracy of earnings forecasts of securities analysts in China. In this paper, the factors influencing the accuracy of earnings forecast of securities analysts are studied by using the empirical method of multiple regression from the two aspects of corporate characteristic factors and analysts' own factors. The results show that there are some errors in the forecast of earnings per share of listed companies, and there is an obvious tendency of optimistic estimation. The proportion of institutional investors holding shares, the proportion of intangible assets and the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts are significantly positively correlated, the time span of analysts' forecasts, earnings management motivation, asset-liability ratio, The predictability of earnings is significantly negatively correlated with the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts, while factors such as brokerage size, analysts' experience and analysts' reputation are not significantly related to the accuracy of forecasts.
【学位授予单位】：暨南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.51

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