上海市信贷规模对住宅价格影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-25 07:31

本文选题：住宅价格　切入点：信贷规模　出处：《华东师范大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：金融业与房地产业是国民经济体系中的两个重要组成部分,金融业是国民经济的“血液”,有“第二金融”美誉的房地产业被称作国民经济的“晴雨表”,由此可以看出房地产业对国民经济发展的重要性和对金融的高度依赖。受美国次贷危机影响,国家和地方政府出台了一系列的经济刺激计划,信贷资源通过各类途径流入包括房地产在内的各行各业,就在国民经济不断走出危机阴霾的同时,高通胀、高房价成为社会关注的热点,银行信贷和房地产价格的关系再次成为专家学者研究的焦点。上海是国内金融中心、一线大城市,如何遏制房价的过快上涨、实现房地产的民生属性是中央和地方政府思考的重要问题。自1997年以房屋置换为突破口实现住宅两级市场联动以来,两级市场的联动效应愈发明显,面对以信贷调控为主要手段的宏观调控,究竟是新房市场受到的影响大,还是二手房市场受到的影响大,两个市场究竟哪个占主导,这两个问题是本文研究的重点。本文综合运用规范研究与实证研究手段,对信贷规模与新房价格、二手房价格的关系进行研究并分析差异存在的原因,从原因出发提出有关未来发展的政策建议。本文前两章总结归纳了国内外有关信贷与住宅价格关系的研究成果和理论基础。在将上海市房地产市场划分为增量市场和存量市场的基础上,第三章运用规范分析方法分析信贷规模对两个市场的影响和存在的差异。第四章运用实证分析方法得出三个重要结论：其一、信贷扩张推动了房价上涨而不是相反；其二、信贷对二手房价格的推动作用大于其对新房价格的推动作用;其三、新房价格的波动决定了二手房价格的波动而不是相反,这三个结论成为本文第五章提出政策建议的出发点；第六章对全文的研究进行总结并指出未来进一步研究的方向。
[Abstract]:The financial industry and the real estate industry are two important parts of the national economic system. The financial industry is the "blood" of the national economy. The real estate industry, which has the reputation of "the second finance", is called the "barometer" of the national economy. From this, we can see the importance of the real estate industry to the development of the national economy and the high dependence on the finance. Affected by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, The state and local governments have issued a series of economic stimulus plans. Credit resources flow into various industries, including real estate, through various channels. As the national economy continues to emerge from the gloom of the crisis, high inflation occurs. The relationship between bank credit and real estate prices has once again become the focus of experts and scholars. Shanghai is a domestic financial center and a first-tier city. How to curb the excessive rise in house prices? It is an important issue for the central and local governments to realize the people's livelihood attribute of real estate. Since 1997, the linkage effect of the two levels of housing market has become more and more obvious since the housing replacement as the breakthrough point to realize the linkage between the two levels of housing market. In the face of the macro-control with credit regulation as the main means, whether the new housing market is greatly affected or the second-hand housing market is greatly affected, which of the two markets is the dominant, these two issues are the focus of this paper. This paper studies the relationship between credit scale and new house price and second-hand house price by means of normative research and empirical research, and analyzes the reasons for the difference. The first two chapters of this paper summarize the research results and theoretical basis of the relationship between credit and housing price at home and abroad. The real estate market in Shanghai is divided into incremental market. On the basis of market and stock market, Chapter three uses the normative analysis method to analyze the impact of credit scale on the two markets and the differences between the two markets. Chapter four uses the empirical analysis method to draw three important conclusions: first, the credit expansion promotes the rise of house prices, not the other way around. The third, the fluctuation of the new house price determines the fluctuation of the second-hand house price, but not the opposite. These three conclusions become the starting point of the fifth chapter of this article to put forward the policy proposal; The sixth chapter summarizes the research and points out the direction of further research in the future.
【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.4;F299.23

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