烟台大悦城商业地产项目投资风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-03-27 05:39

本文选题：商业地产项目　切入点：风险识别　出处：《中国海洋大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,项目投资风险已经成为商业地产项目业主方非常重视的问题,但在投资风险管理实践中存在诸多亟需解决的问题：诸如风险意识差、缺乏实证分析等。学术界对于商业地产项目风险管理的理论研究还缺乏实证分析,风险应对措施缺乏针对性。鉴于此,探讨商业地产项目投资风险管理问题,具有重要的理论价值和实践意义。本研究对烟台大悦城商业地产项目投资风险进行实证研究,在研究过程中,查找了大量的相关文献资料,收集了有关项目全生命周期各个阶段的风险因素,通过访谈等方式,设计了《烟台大悦城商业地产项目初始问卷调查表》,包括19个题项,然后经过预测,确定了《烟台大悦城商业地产项目正式问卷调查表》,包括16个题项。运用因子分析法对调研样本展开统计分析,结果表明,风险因素归为4个因子,基于此,构建了烟台大悦城商业地产项目投资风险指标体系。烟台大悦城商业地产项目投资风险评估,考虑到各种风险发生概率和各种风险损失量的相对严重程度综合确定风险等级,期间采用了德菲尔法和层次分析法,然后提出了2种关键风险因素,如合同风险和火灾风险。对于这两种风险,运用鱼刺图法分析了具体原因,最后,有针对性地提出了相应风险防范措施。本研究的主要结论：(1)编制了烟台大悦城商业地产项目投资风险正式调查问卷,该问卷包括16个题项。(2)构建了烟台大悦城商业地产项目投资风险指标体系。一级指标包括组织风险风险、经济与管理风险、工程环境风险、技术风险；二级指标包括16种风险。(3)确定烟台大悦城商业地产项目投资风险的2种关键风险因素为“合同风险”和“火灾风险”。(4)运用鱼刺图法查找了“合同风险”、“宏观与微观经济风险”、“火灾风险”、“可行性研究风险”等4种关键风险因素具体产生原因,提出了具有操作性的风险防范措施。
[Abstract]:In recent years, project investment risk has become a very important problem for commercial real estate project owners, but in the practice of investment risk management, there are many problems that need to be solved, such as poor risk awareness. Lack of empirical analysis, etc. The theoretical research of commercial real estate project risk management is still lack of empirical analysis, risk countermeasures are not targeted. In view of this, this paper discusses the commercial real estate project investment risk management. This study makes an empirical study on the investment risk of Yantai Dayuecheng commercial real estate project. In the course of the research, it looks up a lot of relevant documents. This paper collects the risk factors of each stage of the whole life cycle of the project, designs the "Yantai Dayuecheng Commercial Real Estate Project initial questionnaire" by means of interviews, including 19 items, and then forecasts it. The formal questionnaire of Yantai Dayuecheng Commercial Real Estate Project is determined, including 16 items. The result shows that the risk factors are classified into 4 factors, and based on this, the factor analysis method is used to analyze the survey samples. The investment risk index system of Yantai Dayuecheng commercial real estate project is constructed. The risk assessment of Yantai Dayuecheng commercial real estate project is carried out, considering the probability of occurrence of various risks and the relative severity of various risk losses, the risk grade is determined synthetically. During this period, Deffel method and Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) are used, and then two key risk factors, such as contract risk and fire risk, are put forward. The main conclusion of this study is: 1) the formal questionnaire of investment risk of Yantai Dayuecheng commercial real estate project is compiled. The questionnaire includes 16 items. (2) the investment risk index system of Yantai Dayuecheng commercial real estate project is constructed. The first level index includes organizational risk risk, economic and management risk, engineering environmental risk and technical risk. The second level index includes 16 kinds of risk. 3) two key risk factors are "contract risk" and "fire risk". 4) "contract risk" and "fire risk" are determined in Yantai Dayuecheng commercial real estate project investment risk. Looking at the economic risk, the fire risk and the feasibility study risk, the causes of the four key risk factors are as follows:. The operational risk prevention measures are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F299.23

【相似文献】