MJ地产酒店项目财务评价

发布时间：2018-04-03 00:11

本文选题：地产酒店　切入点：财务评价　出处：《华南理工大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：MJ地产酒店项目是一个结合房地产开发与酒店营运的综合性项目，本文将对此项目进行财务评价。佛山市三水HS房地产发展有限公司（以下简称“HS公司”），是一家享有地区本土优势的房地产开发公司，近年在房地产领域累积到一定的经验和资金。为了避免房地产市场未来增长放缓让企业陷于被动，HS公司拟投资开发并经营MJ地产酒店项目，寻求跨行业的转型突破机会。 HS公司计划按两个阶段实施该项目：第一阶段，2013年全年为项目建设期，借助HS公司在房地产开发领域的优势，在已有土地使用权的前提下，，完成MJ地产酒店的建筑工程建设、设备购置及装配，为酒店的经营做好硬件和软件准备；第二阶段，2014年至2023年（共10年）为项目首个经营周期，通过科学合理的酒店经营，为项目投资者HS公司带来长期的营业收入，并且在项目经营周期结束时出售酒店项目，估算项目出售收入。因此，MJ地产酒店项目不同于一般的房地产投资项目，也不同于一般的酒店营运项目，它包含房地产开发的投资与价值估算，也包含酒店经营周期的长期现金流估算。那么，如何科学地对此项目进行财务评价，分析影响投资收益的敏感因素，制定风险对策，为HS公司提供决策支持，正是本文需要解决的问题。本文首先对MJ地产酒店项目行业环境和项目概况进行分析，确定项目的定位与规划；并且通过资料查找、专家访谈和实地考察，搜集财务评价需要的数据和依据；利用各项数据和依据计算项目建设期和营运期的现金流；然后本文运用行为资本资产定价模型（BAPM）估算MJ地产酒店的资本成本为9.87%，进而计算得出项目净现值为873万元、内部报酬率为12.48%。接着，考虑影响项目财务评价指标的因素，运用单因素敏感性分析法找出敏感性因素，结合这些因素的变动性，运用多因素敏感性分析法识别风险的影响程度；最后，针对各个风险因素进行分析并制定风险对策，最终得到项目财务可行的判断。由于房地产酒店项目投资与营运的综合性和不确定性，本文运用行为资本资产定价模型、估测现金流直接法、单因素和多因素敏感性分析法等理论对MJ地产酒店进行财务评价，希望为HS公司对项目的开发和营运决策提供参考。
[Abstract]:MJ Real Estate Hotel Project is a comprehensive project combining real estate development with hotel operation.Foshan Sanshui HS Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "HS Company") is a real estate development company with local advantages. In recent years, it has accumulated certain experience and funds in the field of real estate.To avoid a future slowdown in the real estate market, HS intends to invest in the development and operation of MJ real estate hotels, seeking opportunities for cross-industry transformation breakthroughs.HS plans to implement the project in two stages: the first stage, the whole year of 2013 as the project construction period, with the help of HS's advantages in the field of real estate development, under the premise of the existing land use right, the construction of MJ real estate hotel will be completed.Equipment acquisition and assembly to prepare for the management of the hotel hardware and software; the second stage, 2014 to 2023 (a total of 10 years) as the first business cycle of the project, through a scientific and reasonable hotel operation,Generate long-term operating income for the project investor HS, and sell the hotel project at the end of the project cycle, and estimate the project sale income.Therefore, the MJ real estate hotel project is different from the general real estate investment project and the general hotel operation project. It includes the investment and value estimation of the real estate development, and the long-term cash flow estimation of the hotel operation cycle.Therefore, how to scientifically evaluate the project, analyze the sensitive factors that affect the investment return, formulate the risk countermeasures, and provide decision support for HS Company is the problem to be solved in this paper.Firstly, this paper analyzes the industry environment and project situation of MJ real estate hotel project, determines the location and planning of the project, and collects the data and basis of the financial evaluation needs through data searching, expert interview and field investigation.Using the data and basis to calculate the cash flow during the construction and operation period of the project, and then using the behavioral capital asset pricing model (BAPM) to estimate the capital cost of the MJ real estate hotel is 9.87, and then calculate the net present value of the project is 8.73 million yuan.The internal rate of return is 12.48%.Then, considering the factors that affect the financial evaluation index of the project, using the single factor sensitivity analysis method to find out the sensitivity factors, combining the variability of these factors, using the multi-factor sensitivity analysis method to identify the impact degree of the risk; finally,Analyze each risk factor and draw up the risk countermeasure, finally get the project finance feasible judgment.Because of the comprehensive and uncertainty of investment and operation of real estate hotel project, this paper uses the behavioral capital asset pricing model, direct method of estimating cash flow, single factor and multi-factor sensitivity analysis to evaluate the finance of MJ real estate hotel.Hope to provide a reference for HS company to the project development and operation decisions.
【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.233.4

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