利益冲突对分析师预测能力的影响

发布时间：2018-04-03 03:31

本文选题：证券分析师　切入点：负面曝光事件　出处：《复旦大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：在证券市场中,证券分析师比一般投资者拥有更全面的信息来源和专业的解读分析能力,因而他们的投资建议对证券市场参与者产生直接或者间接的影响,他们的各种行为也对信息流动、市场效率有至关重要的作用。但是证券分析师也是一个利益群体,他们的行为受到多方面因素的影响。相比西方国家,中国证券市场有自己的特点,证券分析师行业起步晚、发展快,各种情况层出不穷。因此,研究证券分析师的行为、利益冲突根源以及产生的结果,都是具有理论意义和实际意义的。通常证券分析师在对信息进行搜索、筛选、分析后给出“买入”、“卖出”等有利于投资者理解的推荐评级。但是,是否所有的推荐评级都是客观有效的呢?分析师所处的经济环境会不会对他们的决策有影响呢?这些问题不仅关系到分析师行业的信誉和证券行业的发展,也关系到投资者的投资决策和利益。这些问题同样是本文的研究目的。本文筛选出在2010年1月至2012年12月期间发生过重大产品安全事件和污染事件的上市公司,收集事件发生前后两个月内证券分析师发表的股票评级作为研究样本,从分析师角度和证券市场角度,通过事件研究、T检验、秩和检验等方法,对券商跟踪、分析师跟踪、持股或主承销商关系、券商是否提供基金交易席位对分析师独立性的影响以及分析师推荐评级的投资效果进行了研究。研究结果发现：分析师评级存在乐观倾向,大多数分析师建议买入或者增持；假设的经济利益因素对分析师独立性有不同程度的影响,关联分析师往往给出更高的评级水平；分析师跟踪和持股或主承销商关系对分析师影响程度较大,而券商跟踪、基金席位对分析师独立性影响较弱；同时丑闻事件之后的股票市场波动异常,分析师的评级报告有短期的指导价值。最后,由实证结果提出政策建议,规范证券市场,提高证券分析师的专业能力和职业素质,加强投资者的投资理念与自我保护意识。
[Abstract]:In the stock market, securities analysts have more comprehensive sources of information and professional ability to interpret and analyze than average investors, so their investment advice has a direct or indirect impact on participants in the securities market.Their actions also play a vital role in information flow and market efficiency.But securities analysts are also an interest group whose behavior is influenced by many factors.Compared with western countries, China's securities market has its own characteristics.Therefore, it is of theoretical and practical significance to study the behavior of securities analysts, the root causes of conflicts of interest and the resulting results.Usually, securities analysts give "buy", "sell" and other recommended ratings that are good for investors to understand after searching, sifting and analyzing information.But are all the recommended ratings objective and effective?Will the economic climate of analysts influence their decisions?These problems are not only related to the credibility of the analyst industry and the development of the securities industry, but also related to the investment decisions and interests of investors.These problems are also the purpose of this paper.From January 2010 to December 2012, we selected listed companies with major product safety events and pollution incidents, and collected stock ratings published by securities analysts within two months before and after the incident as research samples.From the perspective of the analyst and the securities market, through the event study T test, rank sum test and so on, we track the securities firm, the analyst tracking, the stock holding or the lead underwriter relationship.The impact on analysts' independence and the investment effectiveness of analysts' recommended ratings were studied whether brokers offered fund trading seats.The results show that the analyst rating tends to be optimistic and most of the analysts recommend buying or increasing their holdings. The hypothetical economic interest factors affect the independence of the analyst to varying degrees and the associated analysts tend to give a higher rating level.Analyst tracking and shareholding or lead underwriter relationships have a greater impact on analysts, while brokerage tracking, fund seats have a weaker impact on analysts' independence, and stock market volatility is unusual after the scandal.The analyst rating report has short-term guidance value.Finally, some suggestions are put forward to standardize the securities market, to improve the professional ability and professional quality of securities analysts, and to strengthen investors' investment concept and self-protection consciousness.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.51

【参考文献】