中国房地产调控下房贷违约率变动规律研究

发布时间：2018-04-09 01:24

本文选题：房地产调控　切入点：房贷违约率　出处：《华南理工大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：中国房地产调控对房地产市场的健康发展发挥着重大的作用。21世纪以来中国经历了多次房地产调控。近几年中国进入最严厉的紧缩性房地产调控时期，调控政策使房地产价格过快上涨得到控制，同时对房地产信贷风险也产生一定的影响。社会各界仅仅关注调控政策对房贷违约率短期的负面影响，但对其深层影响认识不多。学术界在相关领域的研究较少，且缺乏实证研究。本文通过定性与定量相结合的方法分析房地产调控对房贷违约率变动规律的影响，具有较大的理论和现实意义。本文在正确认识中国房贷违约率特征的基础上，通过对2001-2011年房地产调控政策的回顾，对调控政策的成效及其对房贷违约率的影响进行分析。并论证了房地产调控对违约率变动规律产生以下深层影响：一是降低房贷违约率；二是降低房贷违约率的顺经济周期效应。紧缩性政策通过以下渠道降低房贷违约率：（1）引导房价理性回归；（2）促进房地产业结构优化与行业整合；（3）规范金融机构行为。扩张性政策通过促进房地产市场复苏；加强金融支持，推进房地产融资多元化来降低房贷违约率。在理论分析的基础上，本文通过修正CPV模型，，构建了考虑调控政策因素的房贷违约率测算模型，并分别对全样本和分时段子样本进行实证研究。全样本的研究表明，该模型是一个有效度量中国房贷违约率的工具。房贷违约率的顺周期效应明显，GDP增长率与房贷违约率呈负相关关系；国房景气指数、长期利率与违约率成正相关关系；房地产调控政策使违约率降低且影响显著。分样本研究发现调控政策影响下房贷违约率的顺经济周期效应不断减弱。最后，本文就政府在实施房地产调控的前提下如何更好地防范和控制房地产信贷风险、降低房贷违约率，提出以下政策建议：建立信贷违约数据库；建立房地产信用风险度量模型；加强宏观调控力度与政策执行力度；提高房地产调控政策的有效性；建立可持续的房地产金融制度。
[Abstract]:China's real estate regulation plays an important role in the healthy development of real estate market. China has experienced many real estate regulation and control since the 21st century.In recent years, China has entered the most severe period of tightening real estate regulation and control policy, which controls the rapid rise of real estate prices and also has a certain impact on the real estate credit risk.The society only pays attention to the negative impact of the adjustment and control policy on mortgage default rate in the short term, but does not know much about its deep impact.Academic research in related fields is less, and lack of empirical research.This paper analyzes the influence of real estate regulation on the changing law of mortgage default rate through the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, which has great theoretical and practical significance.Based on the correct understanding of the characteristics of China's mortgage default rate, this paper analyzes the effect of the regulation policy and its impact on the mortgage default rate through the review of the real estate regulation and control policies from 2001 to 2011.It also demonstrates that the regulation of real estate has the following deep effects on the law of default rate: first, to reduce the rate of mortgage default; second, to reduce the procyclical effect of mortgage default rate.The contractionary policies reduce the default rate of mortgage loans through the following channels: (1)) guide the rational return of housing prices) and promote the optimization of the real estate industry structure and the integration of the real estate industry. (3) standardize the behavior of financial institutions.Expansionary policies reduce mortgage default rates by boosting the recovery of the real estate market, strengthening financial support and diversifying real estate financing.On the basis of theoretical analysis, this paper, by modifying the CPV model, constructs a real estate loan default rate calculation model considering the factors of adjustment and control policy, and carries on the empirical research on the whole sample and sub-sample respectively.The full sample study shows that the model is an effective tool to measure the default rate of Chinese mortgage.The pro-cyclical effect of mortgage default rate shows that the GDP growth rate is negatively correlated with the mortgage default rate; the national housing boom index, long-term interest rate and default rate are positively correlated; the real estate regulation policy reduces the default rate and has a significant impact.The sub-sample study found that the pro-business cycle effect of mortgage default rate is weakening under the influence of regulation and control policies.Finally, this paper puts forward the following policy suggestions on how to better prevent and control the real estate credit risk and reduce the mortgage default rate under the premise of the implementation of real estate regulation and control: establish a credit default database;Establish real estate credit risk measurement model; strengthen macro-control and policy implementation; improve the effectiveness of real estate regulation and control policies; establish a sustainable real estate financial system.
【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.45

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