重庆市房地产泡沫测度、成因及对策研究

发布时间：2018-04-14 18:29

本文选题：重庆房地产泡沫 + 指标体系　；参考：《重庆工商大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：进入新世纪以来，我国的房地产业发展迅速，已经逐步成为了我国的支柱产业之一。从2000年开始，重庆市的房地产业逐步步入了繁荣发展的时期，其中商品住宅价格、销售面积不断上涨，同时投资性和投机性购房也开始大量的增加。随着重庆市房地产业的蓬勃发展，房地产价格泡沫问题逐渐成为老百姓关注的热点，市场上开始出现“泡沫论”和“非泡沫论”的争论。本文以此争论出发，展开关于重庆市泡沫问题的研究，目的在于验证重庆市房地产市场究竟是否存在泡沫以及泡沫的程度如何，因为只有首先确定了房地产市场泡沫的程度，才能正确的制定房地产业发展计划和管理措施。论文首先对房地产泡沫的相关理论进行归纳和分析，对房地产泡沫的区别进行了说明，接着从宏观、制度和微观三个层面对房地产泡沫的形成机制进行了分析，同时还分析了房地产泡沫的运行机制和结束机制，为下文提出相应的预防政策打下基础。接着简要介绍了重庆市房地产业的现状，指出其已经是重庆市经济社会发展的支柱产业之一。论文的主要部分之一是对重庆市房地产泡沫进行测度，分为两个层次，分别采取了指标指示法和计量模型法进行验证。指标指示法采用了“房地产投资占全社会固定资产总额”、“房屋销售额增长率与社会零售品销售额增长率之比”、“房价收入比”和经过修正的“房价收入比”来考察重庆市房地产市场的健康程度；基于供求角度的计量模型则通过计算均衡价格，与实际价格相比，来检验重庆市房地产市场的泡沫程度，两种方法相互验证，得出了重庆市自2001-2004年房价泡沫开始酝酿，2005年、2007年显著膨胀，2006年和2008年有一定程度收敛，2009年至2011年房价泡沫非常严重但有一定收敛趋势的结论。两种方法有力的驳斥了房地产市场的“无泡沫论“。接下来论文在得到的重庆市房地产泡沫度基础上从宏观、制度、微观三个层面对重庆市房地产市场泡沫的成因进行了分析，，并针对重庆市房地产市场的具体情况，以产业政策理论为指导，提出了相应的政策建议来预防并降低其危害。主要从政府资源调控、干预土地市场的角度出发，提出了如何有效化解和防范房地产泡沫的手段与政策措施，指出政府应该综合运用金融、税收、行政等手段调控重庆房地产市场，以防止泡沫的进一步膨胀。
[Abstract]:Since entering the new century, the real estate industry of our country has developed rapidly and has gradually become one of the pillar industries of our country.Since 2000, the real estate industry in Chongqing has gradually stepped into a period of prosperity and development, in which the price of commodity housing and the area of sales have been rising, while the investment and speculative purchase of houses have also begun to increase in a large number.With the booming development of the real estate industry in Chongqing, the issue of real estate price bubble has gradually become the focus of common people's attention, and the controversy between "bubble theory" and "non-bubble theory" is beginning to appear in the market.Based on this argument, this paper carries out a study on the bubble in Chongqing, the purpose of which is to verify whether or not there is a bubble in the real estate market of Chongqing and the extent of the bubble, because only the extent of the bubble in the real estate market is first determined.In order to correctly formulate the real estate development plan and management measures.First, the paper summarizes and analyzes the relevant theories of real estate bubble, explains the difference of real estate bubble, and then analyzes the formation mechanism of real estate bubble from macro, institutional and micro levels.At the same time, it analyzes the operation mechanism and the ending mechanism of the real estate bubble, which lays the foundation for the corresponding prevention policy.Then it briefly introduces the current situation of Chongqing's real estate industry, and points out that it has become one of the pillar industries of Chongqing's economic and social development.One of the main parts of this paper is to measure the real estate bubble in Chongqing, which is divided into two levels."Real estate investment accounts for the total fixed assets of the whole society" and "the ratio of housing sales growth rate to the growth rate of social retail sales" is adopted in the indicator indicator method.The "price-to-income ratio" and the revised "price-to-income ratio" are used to examine the health of the real estate market in Chongqing, while the econometric model based on the angle of supply and demand calculates the equilibrium price, which is compared with the actual price.To test the bubble degree of the real estate market in Chongqing, the two methods verify each other.This paper draws the conclusion that the housing price bubble in Chongqing has been brewing since 2001-2004, expanded significantly in 2005, 2007, converged to a certain extent in 2006 and 2008, and became very serious from 2009 to 2011, but has a certain convergence trend.Two methods powerfully refute the "bubble-free theory" of the real estate market.On the basis of the degree of real estate bubble in Chongqing, the paper analyzes the causes of the bubble in Chongqing real estate market from the macro, institutional and micro levels, and aims at the specific situation of the real estate market in Chongqing.Under the guidance of industrial policy theory, the corresponding policy suggestions are put forward to prevent and reduce its harm.From the angle of government resource regulation and intervention in the land market, this paper puts forward the means and policy measures to effectively resolve and prevent the real estate bubble, and points out that the government should make comprehensive use of finance and taxation.Administrative and other measures to control the real estate market in Chongqing to prevent further expansion of the bubble.
【学位授予单位】：重庆工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23;F224

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