基于行为的实物期权方法的应用研究

发布时间：2018-04-15 14:02

本文选题：实物期权 + 资本投资决策　；参考：《华南理工大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：实物期权方法因考虑了管理柔性的价值而受到理论界的推崇，但调查研究发现在资本投资决策实践中，管理者几乎不应用或不能正确应用实物期权方法，这是由于现有的实物期权方法是在理性决策框架中提出，即假设管理者是完全理性的，但实际决策过程是行为决策，，会受到管理者心理因素与认知偏差的影响。行为决策理论的研究是将人的行为特征考虑到决策方法中，从而达到更有效的解决实际决策问题的目的。本文基于行为决策理论解决实物期权方法的推广应用问题，提出有助于实物期权方法更好应用的步骤，供管理者在资本投资实践中遵循。本文对丰富行为决策理论关于实物期权方法的研究与提高现实中资本投资决策的效率具有一定的价值和意义。本文依据行为决策理论分析现实中管理者不应用以及不能正确应用实物期权方法的原因，通过改进实物期权方法的两个关键逻辑步骤（实物期权识别与实物期权价值评估）中的具体技法，同时在实物期权方法的应用步骤中增加规避非理性行为的步骤，最终提出基于行为的实物期权方法的应用步骤，具体步骤为：组织管理者学习实物期权知识；组织管理者学习行为决策理论；识别影响项目价值的不确定因素；识别对项目价值影响程度大的敏感性因素；识别对项目价值影响程度大且发生概率高的重要风险因素；提出管理应对策略；识别实物期权；组织管理者学习二叉树实物期权价值评估技法；估算标的项目的价值；估算标的项目价值波动标准差；根据二叉树方法评估实物期权的价值；依据决策准则做出资本投资决策。
[Abstract]:The real option method is respected by the theoretical circle because of considering the value of management flexibility. However, the investigation and research shows that in the practice of capital investment decision, the real option method is almost not used or can not be applied correctly by managers.This is because the existing real option method is put forward in the framework of rational decision-making, that is, assuming that the manager is completely rational, but the actual decision-making process is behavioral decision, which will be influenced by the psychological factors and cognitive bias of managers.The study of behavioral decision theory is to consider the characteristics of human behavior into the decision making method, so as to achieve a more effective solution to the actual decision-making problem.Based on the behavioral decision theory, this paper solves the problem of the extension and application of the real option method, and puts forward the steps that will be helpful to the better application of the real option method, which can be followed by the managers in the practice of capital investment.This paper has certain value and significance for enriching the research on real option method in behavioral decision theory and improving the efficiency of capital investment decision in reality.Based on the behavioral decision theory, this paper analyzes the reasons why managers do not use the real option method and can not use it correctly.By improving the specific techniques in the two key logical steps of the real option method (real option identification and real option value evaluation), and adding steps to avoid irrational behavior in the application steps of the real option method,Finally, the application steps of Behavior-based Real option method are put forward. The specific steps are as follows: organizational managers learn real option knowledge, organizational managers learn behavior decision theory, identify the uncertain factors that affect the value of the project.Identify the sensitive factors that have a great impact on the project value; identify the important risk factors that have a great impact on the project value and high probability of occurrence; propose management response strategies; identify real options;Organization managers learn the binary tree real option valuation techniques; estimate the value of the underlying project; estimate the standard deviation of the value fluctuation of the underlying project; evaluate the value of real options according to the binary tree method; and make capital investment decisions based on the decision criteria.
【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F830.9

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