房地产宏观调控影响下的房价与租金关系研究——基于中国35个大中城市面板数据的实证分析

发布时间：2018-04-20 01:03

本文选题：房价 + 租金　；参考：《数理统计与管理》2014年02期

【摘要】：本文通过对我国35个大中城市1998-2010年的房屋销售价格指数和房屋租赁价格指数的研究发现,在房地产宏观调控影响下的房价和租金之间的关系因城市而异。杭州、上海、广州、青岛等东部经济区沿海城市,房价与租金呈现正相关关系,由于投资性需求占主导,使得租金变动对房价的影响较大,房价变动对租金的影响较小;银川、昆明、太原、西安、呼和浩特等中西部经济区城市,房价与租金也呈现正相关关系,但房地产市场更多为刚性需求,使得租金变动对房价的影响较小,房价变动对租金的影响最大;南宁、武汉、兰州、大连、成都、乌鲁木齐等城市,由于流动人口相对较少,房地产销售市场和租赁市场具有竞争性和替代性,使得房价与租金呈现负相关关系.通过调控政策对房价和租金的影响分析发现,我国大多数城市房价和租金一路上扬,实施的宏观调控政策没有达到预期效果,其原因在于调控期间的城市经济发展、物价变动、流动人口构成、房地产供给结构、国家扶持性政策(如西部大开发政策、海南国际旅游岛建设发展政策)等影响了人们的预期,从而制约了调控效果.因此,国家房地产宏观调控政策必须与其他相关政策配套实施,而且要对不同城市实施差异性政策,才能有效达到调控的预期目标.
[Abstract]:Through the study of the housing price index and the housing rental price index of 35 large and medium cities in China for 1998-2010 years, this paper finds that the relationship between house price and rent under the influence of real estate macro-control is different because of the cities in Hangzhou, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Qingdao and other coastal cities of the Eastern Economic Zone, and the house price and rent are positively related. Due to the dominant investment demand, the rent change has a greater impact on the house price, and the change of house prices has little influence on the rent. The housing price and rent are also positively related in Yinchuan, Kunming, Taiyuan, Xi'an, Hohhot and other central and western economic areas, but the real estate market is more rigid demand, making the change of rent change to the house price. Small, housing price changes have the greatest impact on rent; Nanning, Wuhan, Lanzhou, Dalian, Chengdu, Urumqi, and other cities, because of relatively small floating population, the real estate sales market and rental market are competitive and substitutable, making the house price and rent negative correlation. Through the analysis of the effect of regulation policy on house price and rent, I found that In most cities, the price and rent of most cities are rising, and the macro-control policies are not achieved. The reasons are the influence of the economic development, the price change, the composition of the floating population, the structure of the real estate supply, the state support policy (such as the policy of the western development and the development policy of the Hainan international tourism island). Therefore, the national real estate macro-control policy must be implemented with other relevant policies, and the implementation of different policies in different cities can effectively achieve the expected goal of regulation.

【作者单位】：山西财经大学管理科学与工程学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(70973072);国家自然科学基金项目(70573066) 教育部人文社科青年基金项目(12YJCZH098) 山西省高等学校哲学社会科学研究项目(2012233)
【分类号】：F293.3;O212

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