开发商行为、土地管制与住房供给的动态调整

发布时间：2018-04-23 15:39

本文选题：开发商行为 + 土地管制　；参考：《当代财经》2014年09期

【摘要】：基于一个住房存量部分调整模型,估算了住房市场上供给方对需求冲击的反应速度。实证分析表明,面对我国住房市场上的正向需求冲击,供给方不能做出快速反应以增加住房供给是近些年我国房价持续高涨的重要原因。住房建设周期不能完全解释过慢的反应速度,开发商基于房价的预期而采取的囤积土地、延长开发等行为以及政府对土地的严格管制是供给方调整缓慢的原因。因此,在住房需求持续增加的大环境下,政府应重视供给方的管理。一方面改变市场预期,严厉打击囤地等行为以调节住房供给速度;另一方面,逐步放开土地管制,发挥市场在土地资源优化配置中的作用,实现供需平衡。
[Abstract]:Based on a partial adjustment model of housing stock, the response speed of supply side to demand shock in housing market is estimated. The empirical analysis shows that in the face of the positive demand impact in China's housing market, the supply side can not make a rapid response to increase housing supply is an important reason for the sustained upsurge of housing prices in China in recent years. The housing construction cycle cannot fully explain the slow pace of response. Developers' behavior of hoarding land, prolonging development, and strict government controls on land are the reasons for the slow adjustment on the supply side, based on the expectation of house prices. Therefore, in the environment of increasing housing demand, the government should attach importance to the management of the supply side. On the one hand, we should change the market expectation and severely crack down on land hoarding to adjust the housing supply speed; on the other hand, we should liberalize the land control step by step, give play to the role of the market in the optimal allocation of land resources, and realize the balance between supply and demand.
【作者单位】：广东财经大学金融学院;中山大学管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金重点项目“房地产金融资产及衍生物定价与风险管理”(71231008) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目“中国住房抵押贷款的信用风险缓释工具研究”(13wkpy28)
【分类号】：F293.3;F301

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