老年公寓项目风险评价与控制研究

发布时间：2018-04-25 21:15

本文选题：老年公寓 + 风险　；参考：《浙江大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着老龄化进程的加速,人口老龄化成为未来必然趋势,随着产生的养老问题已经引起了许多学者的重视。我国传统的家庭结构正在发生着转变,传统的家庭养老观念受到了一些挑战,社会化养老方式正在被逐渐接受。老年公寓作为社会化养老方式的一种,在我国起步较晚,发展中还存在一些列问题。考虑到老年公寓高投入、高风险的特点,开发和管理过程中受到来自政策、经济、技术等因素的影响,面临较大不确定性。在此背景下,本文以峰汇老年公寓项目为例,分析开发和管理过程中面临的风险因素,为项目决策提供依据。本文选择峰汇项目的风险管理为研究对象,作者介绍了老年公寓开发风险的相关概念,对风险评价的方法进行了梳理,为全文的研究奠定理论基础。结合苏州市的情况分析了老年公寓的发展现状以及存在的问题,对老年公寓建设项目和一般房地产开发项目进行了对比,点出其特殊性,从自然风险、政策风险、市场风险、技术风险、管理风险六个方面对老年公寓建设项目进行了风险分析。作者邀请行业以及开发企业的若干名专家,利用头脑风暴法建立了峰汇老年公寓项目风险评价指标体系,利用层次分析法计算了指标权重,同时利用模糊综合评价法对风险进行了评价,认为该项目面临的主要风险在于经济、技术、市场以及管理方面。针对以上风险,作者提出了若干应对措施。本文的研究对于峰汇老年公寓项目的开发和建设具有一定的指导作用,同时对于类似项目的风险管理工作也有一定的借鉴。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of the aging process, population aging has become an inevitable trend in the future, with the emergence of pension problems have attracted the attention of many scholars. The traditional family structure of our country is changing, the traditional concept of family pension has been challenged, and the way of socialized old-age support is gradually accepted. As one of the ways of socialized old-age support, apartment for the aged starts late in our country, and there are still some problems in its development. Considering the characteristics of high investment and high risk, the development and management process is influenced by the factors of policy, economy, technology and so on. In this context, this paper takes the Fenghui elderly apartment project as an example, analyzes the risk factors in the process of development and management, and provides the basis for project decision-making. In this paper, the risk management of Fenghui Project is selected as the research object. The author introduces the related concepts of the risk of the development of the elderly apartment, and combs the methods of risk assessment, which lays a theoretical foundation for the research of the full text. Technical risk, management risk six aspects of the elderly apartment construction project risk analysis. The author invited some experts from the industry and the development enterprise to establish the risk evaluation index system of Fenghui elderly apartment project by using the brainstorming method, and calculated the index weight by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). At the same time, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to evaluate the risk. It is concluded that the main risk of the project lies in the aspects of economy, technology, market and management. In view of the above risks, the author puts forward some countermeasures. The research in this paper has a certain guiding role for the development and construction of Fenghui elderly apartment project, and also has some reference for the risk management work of similar projects.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23

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