台商直接投资的大陆对台出口效应研究

发布时间：2018-04-26 10:32

本文选题：台商直接投资 + 出口规模　；参考：《宁波大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着海峡两岸关系逐步发展，特别是经济合作框架协议（ECFA）及投资保障协议等一系列合作协议的成功签署和实施，台商对大陆直接投资与两岸双边贸易迅速发展，已进入制度化与机制化阶段。此间台商直接投资不仅弥补了大陆建设资金不足，而且带来先进生产技术与管理经验，促进大陆对台及对外出口贸易增长。新形势下，分析、研究台商直接投资的进展，尤其是与大陆对台出口贸易间的内在联系及其成因，，对缩小大陆对台湾地区贸易逆差、推动两岸经贸关系深化发展和区域经济一体化，无疑具有重要战略与现实指导意义。在简要梳理相关理论与实践研究进展基础上，本文主要从规模与结构两个方面构建外商直接投资的东道国出口效应理论分析框架；进而就台商直接投资与大陆对台出口贸易问题进行描述性统计分析，得出二者可能存在的相关关系；同时运用协整检验与误差修正模型等计量方法，实证研究了台商直接投资的大陆对台出口规模与结构效应。在此基础上，建立台商直接投资的技术溢出效应模型，分析台商直接投资对大陆出口产生引致效应的实质；借鉴Manuel等（2005）总投资模型，分析台商直接投资对大陆资本的挤入效应。在计量方法上，以回归分析为主，同时结合时间序列ADF检验、Johansen协整检验等多种检验方法，使实证结论更加严谨准确。实证分析结果表明：台商直接投资扩大了大陆对台出口规模，缩小了大陆对台贸易逆差；同时优化了大陆对台出口结构，台商直接投资与初级制成品出口比重之间不存在协整关系，与资源密集型、低技术密集型、中技术密集型、高技术密集型产品出口比重的增加正相关，且对高技术密集型产品出口比重增加的促进作用大于低、中技术密集型产品出口的促进作用。深入分析台商直接投资引致大陆对台出口结构优化原因，结果显示：台商直接投资存在正向技术溢出效应，能够提升大陆境内企业技术水平，促进对台湾地区出口产品跨越非关税壁垒；也存在资本挤入效应，增加大陆境内总资本积累，一定程度上改变大陆境内要素结构。最后，根据研究结论，提出了新形势下利用台资带动大陆对台出口及进一步优化大陆对台出口结构的相应对策建议。
[Abstract]:With the gradual development of cross-strait relations, especially the successful signing and implementation of a series of cooperation agreements, such as the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFAA) and the Investment guarantee Agreement, direct investment by Taiwan businessmen to the mainland and bilateral trade between the two sides have developed rapidly. It has entered the stage of institutionalization and institutionalization. Direct investment by Taiwanese businessmen not only makes up for the shortage of capital for construction in the mainland, but also brings advanced production technology and management experience, and promotes the growth of mainland's trade with Taiwan and its foreign exports. Under the new situation, this paper analyzes and studies the progress of direct investment by Taiwan businessmen, especially the internal relations and causes of the export trade with the mainland to Taiwan, so as to reduce the trade deficit between the mainland and Taiwan. It is undoubtedly of strategic and practical significance to promote the development of cross-strait economic and trade relations and regional economic integration. On the basis of briefly combing the research progress of relevant theory and practice, this paper constructs the theoretical analysis framework of host country's export effect of FDI from two aspects: scale and structure. Then, the paper makes a descriptive statistical analysis on the direct investment of Taiwan businessmen and the export trade of mainland China to Taiwan, and obtains the possible correlation between the two. At the same time, it uses the co-integration test and error correction model, etc. This paper empirically studies the scale and structure of mainland exports to Taiwan. On this basis, the technology spillover effect model of Taiwanese direct investment is established, and the essence of the effect of Taiwanese direct investment on mainland exports is analyzed, and the total investment model of Manuel et al. 2005) is used to analyze the crowding effect of Taiwanese direct investment on mainland capital. In terms of measurement methods, regression analysis is the main method and Johansen cointegration test is combined with time series ADF test to make the empirical conclusion more precise and accurate. The results of empirical analysis show that direct investment by Taiwan businessmen has enlarged the scale of mainland exports to Taiwan, reduced the mainland's trade deficit with Taiwan, and optimized the structure of mainland exports to Taiwan. There is no cointegration relationship between the direct investment of Taiwan businessmen and the proportion of primary manufactured goods exports, but it is positively related to the increase in the proportion of exports of resource-intensive, low-technology-intensive, medium-technology-intensive, and high-technology-intensive products. Moreover, the promotion effect on the export proportion of high technology intensive products is greater than that of low, and the promotion effect of medium technology intensive products is higher than that of medium technology intensive products. An in-depth analysis of the reasons for the optimization of the mainland's export structure resulting from Taiwan's direct investment shows that there is a positive technology spillover effect on Taiwan's direct investment, which can enhance the technology level of mainland enterprises. To promote exports to Taiwan across non-tariff barriers, there is also the effect of capital crowding in, increasing the total capital accumulation in the mainland, and to a certain extent changing the structure of the elements in the mainland. Finally, according to the conclusion of the research, the paper puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions of using Taiwan capital to promote mainland's export to Taiwan and to further optimize the structure of mainland's export to Taiwan under the new situation.
【学位授予单位】：宁波大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127

【参考文献】