房价变动对居民消费影响的门限测度——基于中国35个大中城市的实证研究

发布时间：2018-04-27 02:34

本文选题：房价 + 居民消费　；参考：《经济科学》2014年04期

【摘要】：本文分析房价影响居民消费的非线性机制,并对中国35个大中城市房价变动影响居民消费的门限效应进行实证研究。结果发现:总体上看,当房价处于低增长机制或居民收入处于高增长机制时,房价上涨对居民消费产生显著促进作用,反之,房价对居民消费的影响不明显甚至出现挤出效果;以购房首付比区分不同城市后发现,当高首付比城市的房价或居民收入处于低增长阶段,而低首付比城市的房价或收入处于高增长阶段时,房价对居民消费产生显著正向影响;可支配收入是居民消费的决定因素。因此,如果政策当局希望有效实现促消费之目标,则需在总体上将房价维持在低速增长机制,并保持居民收入较高增长。
[Abstract]:This paper analyzes the nonlinear mechanism of housing price influencing residents' consumption, and makes an empirical study on the threshold effect of house price change on residents' consumption in 35 large and medium-sized cities in China. The results show that, on the whole, when the house price is in the low growth mechanism or the resident income is in the high growth mechanism, the rise of the house price has a significant promoting effect on the resident consumption, whereas the impact of the house price on the resident consumption is not obvious or even extruding effect. After distinguishing different cities with the ratio of purchase down payment, it is found that when the house price or resident income of the city with high down payment is in a low growth stage, and the house price or income of a city with a low down payment is in a high growth stage, the house price has a significant positive impact on the consumption of residents. Disposable income is the decisive factor of residents' consumption. Therefore, if the policy authorities want to achieve the goal of promoting consumption effectively, they need to maintain the low growth mechanism of house prices and maintain higher income growth in general.
【作者单位】：厦门理工学院商学院;
【基金】：中国博士后科学基金项目“房价冲击下的宏观经济波动与货币政策研究”(编号:20110490850) 福建省高校新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目“房价冲击对宏观经济的传导机制及其货币政策研究”(编号:JA11240S)的资助
【分类号】：F299.23;F126.1

【参考文献】