我国银行信贷渠道传导有效性研究

发布时间：2018-04-30 15:01

本文选题：货币政策 + 银行信贷渠道　；参考：《首都经济贸易大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着货币政策在一国的经济发展中起着越来越重要的作用，各国的中央银行利用货币政策来调节宏观经济的频率越来越频繁。这也促使各个经济学流派推动了货币基础理论的发展，其中主要理论有：货币内生性和外生性理论、货币中性和非中性理论、货币政策传导机制。货币政策可以通过利率、资产价格、汇率、信贷规模等不同的渠道来影响实体经济的发展，并且其传导的速度和效果依据各国的发展情况而有不同。现如今，中国处于计划经济体制向市场经济体制过渡的时期，虽然金融市场经历了从无到有的迅猛发展过程，但是还是处于初级阶段，存在着金融市场发展不完善、金融资产种类单一等缺陷，所以在我国的金融市场还是以银行体系为主的间接融资市场，从而我国的货币政策传导机制是以银行信贷渠道为主导渠道的，所以对银行信贷渠道的研究是重要的，可以证实货币政策的有效性问题。通过数量经济学的理论知识和计量软件Eviews的运用，对银行信贷渠道分阶段和整体研究的实证分析得出：货币政策通过信贷渠道的传导是有效的，三个层次的货币供应量和金融机构贷款总额存在长期协整关系，能够影响贷款总额的变动，但对其作用的显著性和稳定性又是各不相同的；而金融机构贷款总额和产出、通货膨胀也存在长期协整关系，贷款总额的增长会促进经济的增长。从VAR模型的脉冲响应和方差分解结果来看，货币供应量和金融机构贷款总额对产出都有一定促进作用，其中货币供应量对GDP的影响要大于贷款总额对产出的影响，这说明我国在运用货币政策进行经济调控时，短期内主要依靠贷款总额，长期内主要依靠调整货币供应量。经过实证分析可得，，我国银行信贷渠道传导是有效的，但也存在着不畅通的情况，并对不畅通的方面进行分析和提出解决建议。
[Abstract]:With the monetary policy playing a more and more important role in the economic development of a country, the central banks of various countries use monetary policy to adjust the frequency of macro-economy more and more frequently. This also promotes the development of monetary basic theory in various economic schools, among which the main theories are: endogenous and exogenous monetary theory, monetary neutral and non-neutral theory, monetary policy transmission mechanism. Monetary policy can influence the development of real economy through different channels, such as interest rate, asset price, exchange rate, credit scale, etc. Nowadays, China is in the period of transition from planned economy system to market economy system. Although the financial market has experienced a rapid development from scratch, it is still in the primary stage, and there is an imperfect financial market development. Because of the defects such as the single type of financial assets, the financial market in our country is still an indirect financing market dominated by the banking system. Thus, the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in our country is dominated by the credit channels of banks. Therefore, the study of bank credit channels is important to verify the effectiveness of monetary policy. Based on the theoretical knowledge of quantitative economics and the application of econometric software Eviews, it is concluded that the transmission of monetary policy through credit channels is effective through the empirical analysis of bank credit channels in stages and as a whole. There is a long-term cointegration relationship between the three levels of money supply and the total amount of loans of financial institutions, which can affect the changes of the total amount of loans, but the significance and stability of their effects are different, while the total amount of loans and output of financial institutions are different. Inflation also has a long-term co-integration relationship, the growth of total loans will promote economic growth. According to the results of impulse response and variance decomposition of VAR model, both money supply and total loan amount of financial institutions can promote the output to some extent, in which the effect of money supply on GDP is greater than that of total loan on output. This shows that in the use of monetary policy for economic regulation, China mainly depends on the total amount of loans in the short term, and mainly on the adjustment of the money supply in the long term. Through empirical analysis, we can find that the transmission of bank credit channels in China is effective, but there is also a lack of smooth situation, and the unsmooth aspects are analyzed and some suggestions are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F832.4

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