中国开展住房反向抵押贷款的可行性研究与实证分析

发布时间：2018-05-02 15:47

本文选题：反向抵押贷款 + 可行性　；参考：《华侨大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：住房反向抵押贷款是在世界人口老龄化趋势逐渐加剧的大背景下，，逐渐兴起的一种新型金融工具。它旨在改善老年人退休后的生活质量，缓解当前沉重的社会养老压力。在美国，住房反向抵押贷款已经成为了其社会养老保障体系中一种重要的补充养老方式，并取得了显著的效果。早在20世纪90年代，我国就已经有学者开始研究和探讨将其引入中国市场的可行性。2007年前后，北京、上海、广州等一线城市纷纷掀起了一场关于住房反向抵押贷款的试点浪潮，遗憾的是最终均以失败告终。政府层面上，银监局也曾于2011年对此进行了专项调研，最终得出的结论是“房屋产权70年，以房养老难以推行”。为什么住房反向抵押贷款在中国会出现这种“水土不服”的现象？又为何仍然有一批国内学者大力推崇中国开展住房反向抵押贷款业务呢？本文试图从住房反向抵押贷款产品自身的特性和运作机制出发，构建一个比较清晰的分析框架来分析其在中国市场发展的适用性和可行性。并在综合借鉴国外三大基础定价模型的基础上，根据中国的具体情况对保险精算定价模型及其参数进行一些修正，以便提高产品定价的准确性。最后，以上海市为例，通过蒙特卡罗模拟的方法对贷款利率和房价波动的路径进行全方位仿真模拟，定价结果表明住房反向抵押贷款确实能显著提高上海市退休老人的收入水平，从而保障其退休后的生活质量。同时，本文还发现无论是一次性趸领支付产品还是终身年金支付产品对贷款利率和房屋折旧率的变化都非常敏感，这对我国今后具体开展住房反向抵押贷款具有重要的现实意义。
[Abstract]:Reverse mortgage is a new type of financial instrument under the background of the aging of the world population. It aims to improve the quality of life of the elderly after retirement and relieve the current heavy social pressure on the aged. In the United States, reverse mortgage has become an important supplementary pension system in the social security system, and has achieved significant results. As early as the 1990s, some scholars in China began to study and explore the feasibility of introducing them into the Chinese market. Around 2007, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and other first-tier cities have set off a pilot wave on reverse mortgage loans for housing. Unfortunately, they all ended up failing. At the government level, the BCB also conducted a special survey in 2011, and finally concluded that "70 years of housing property rights, housing pension is difficult to implement." Why is the reverse mortgage in China such a "hard to accept" phenomenon? Why is there still a group of domestic scholars who strongly advocate China's housing reverse mortgage business? This paper attempts to construct a clear analysis framework to analyze the applicability and feasibility of the development of the reverse mortgage in China from the perspective of its own characteristics and operation mechanism. In order to improve the accuracy of product pricing, the insurance actuarial pricing model and its parameters are modified according to the specific conditions of China on the basis of the three basic pricing models abroad. Finally, taking Shanghai as an example, the path of loan interest rate and house price fluctuation is simulated by Monte Carlo simulation method. The pricing results show that the reverse mortgage of housing can improve the income level of retired people in Shanghai and guarantee their quality of life after retirement. At the same time, this paper also found that both one-off wholesale payment products and lifetime annuity payment products are very sensitive to the change of loan interest rate and house depreciation rate. This has important practical significance for our country to carry out the housing reverse mortgage loan in the future.
【学位授予单位】：华侨大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.45

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