房地产项目投资风险分析和评价研究

发布时间：2018-05-03 17:22

本文选题：房地产 + 项目　；参考：《西安建筑科技大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：伴随着我国经济的快速发展，我国在房地产领域的投资活动也越来越活跃。房地产业经历了20多年的不断发展和成熟，己成为我国国民经济的基础性产业，已经成为关乎社会是否和谐、人民生活是否安定的民生产业。与此同时，出于我国房地产市场的管理机制尚不完善，政策法规制度尚不健全的原因，导致了近些年在我国房地产市场上出现的房地产投资过热、房产价格迅速上涨、国家的调控不理想等现象。目前房地产行业已经成为国内众多高风险行业之一，所以对房地产投资风险进行分析和研究也成为理论界和实业界面临的重要课题。本文以房地产项目的投资风险为研究对象，首先通过对房地产项目投资风险的含义及分类，房地产项目的风险风管理内容及流程的陈述，点名了对项目的投资风险进行评价在整个风险管理过程中的重要地位。其次结合我国房地产投资的实际情况，应用层次分析法的基本原理，将房地产项目的投资风险划分为宏观政策风险因素、市场环境风险因素、经济状况风险因素、前期筹备阶段的风险因素，建设阶段的风险因素，后期租售阶段的风险因素等六个准则层指标，同时对这六个风险指标所包含的21个子因子进行了详细分析，在此基础上构建了针对房地产项目投资风险的评价指标体系，建立了基于多层次灰色评价法的房地产项目投资风险的评价模型。最后本文以西安市某房地产项目为例，，对其投资风险进行了研究。通过研究得出结论：文章中所应用的多层次灰色评价模型充分发挥了层次分析法和灰色评价法的优势，充分利用了专家们的实践和理论经验，令最终评价结果与该项目的实际开发情况基本相符，能够达到帮助投资者对项目投资风险的分析与评价目的，进而为房地产项目的投资者提供更加科学，直观的决策依据，具有较强的实用性。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of our country's economy, our country's investment activities in the real estate field are more and more active. After more than 20 years of continuous development and maturity, the real estate industry has become the basic industry of our national economy, and has become a livelihood industry related to the harmony of society and the stability of people's life. At the same time, because the management mechanism of the real estate market in our country is not perfect and the policies and regulations are not perfect, the real estate investment in our country's real estate market has overheated in recent years, and the real estate price is rising rapidly. The national regulation and control is not ideal and so on. At present, the real estate industry has become one of the many high-risk industries in China, so the analysis and research on the real estate investment risk has become an important subject facing the theoretical and industrial circles. This paper takes the investment risk of real estate project as the research object. First of all, it states the meaning and classification of the investment risk of the real estate project, the management content and process of the risk style of the real estate project. The important position of investment risk evaluation in the whole process of risk management is named. Secondly, combining the actual situation of real estate investment in our country, applying the basic principle of analytic hierarchy process, the investment risk of real estate project is divided into macro policy risk factor, market environment risk factor and economic condition risk factor. The risk factors in the preparatory stage, the risk factors in the construction phase, the risk factors in the later stage of leasing and sale, and so on, are analyzed in detail. At the same time, the 21 sub-factors included in these six risk indicators are analyzed in detail. On this basis, the evaluation index system of investment risk of real estate project is constructed, and the evaluation model of investment risk of real estate project based on multi-level grey evaluation method is established. Finally, this paper takes a real estate project in Xi'an as an example to study its investment risk. The conclusion is that the multi-level grey evaluation model used in this paper has made full use of the advantages of the analytic hierarchy process and the grey evaluation method, and made full use of the practice and theoretical experience of the experts. The final evaluation results are basically consistent with the actual development of the project, which can help investors to analyze and evaluate the investment risk of the project, and then provide more scientific and intuitive decision basis for the investors of the real estate project. It has strong practicability.
【学位授予单位】：西安建筑科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F275;F299.233.4

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