上海市房地产价格分布和泡沫度研究

发布时间：2018-05-05 14:45

本文选题：幂率分布 + 空间分布　；参考：《华东理工大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文主要研究了上海市房地产的分布和泡沫程度,在从各大房地产网站搜集和整理大量数据的基础上进行了如下研究：首先是对上海房价进行拟合,看其服从怎样的分布；其次是把空间经济学的知识应用到上海房地产市场,利用经纬度画出等高线,看一下房价在空间上是如何分布的；最后以野口悠纪雄的土地价格模型为基础,引入了人口增长率、CPI增长率、可支配收入增长率和GDP增长率等供需因素对房地产价格的影响,建立新的房地产定价模型。进一步采用模型计算上海房地产的无泡沫价格,与实际收集到的房地产价格数据进行比较,并计算出泡沫程度。本文还根据其他学者对房地产周期的划分,并结合各年份房地产的相关政策,对房地产泡沫程度划分的合理性进行解释。通过实证研究我们发现：(1)上海市的房地产价格分布总体上服从幂率分布。(2)上海市房地产价格在空间上呈现多中心的特点,并且房价与其距离中心地段的距离成反比例关系。(3)上海市房地产的泡沫度在2004年至2010年大致上表现出上升的趋势。2004年至2006年属于轻微泡沫年份,2007年以后进入了严重泡沫期,并且在2005年和2010年这两年房地产泡沫程度都有所回落。
[Abstract]:This paper mainly studies the distribution and bubble degree of real estate in Shanghai. On the basis of collecting and collating a large number of data from various real estate websites, this paper makes the following research: first, fitting the housing prices in Shanghai to see what the distribution of the real estate service is from; The second is to apply the knowledge of spatial economics to the Shanghai real estate market, draw contours using latitude and longitude to see how housing prices are distributed in space. Finally, it is based on Noguchi's land price model. This paper introduces the influence of supply and demand factors such as population growth rate, disposable income growth rate and GDP growth rate on real estate price, and sets up a new real estate pricing model. Furthermore, the model is used to calculate the bubble price of Shanghai real estate, which is compared with the real estate price data collected in practice, and the bubble degree is calculated. This paper also explains the rationality of the classification of real estate bubble degree according to other scholars' division of real estate cycle and the relevant policies of real estate in different years. Through the empirical study, we find that the real estate price distribution in Shanghai is generally from the power-rate distribution. (2) the real estate price in Shanghai presents the characteristics of multi-center in space. And the relationship between house prices and their distance from the central area is inversely proportional.) the bubble degree of real estate in Shanghai generally showed an upward trend from 2004 to 2010. It was a mild bubble year from 2004 to 2006, and entered a severe bubble period after 2007. And in 2005 and 2010 in the two years of real estate bubble levels have declined.
【学位授予单位】：华东理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F293.35;F224

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