房地产客户信用风险度量研究

发布时间：2018-05-10 22:15

本文选题：房地产客户信用风险 + 信用风险度量　；参考：《浙江大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文利用国内上市房地产公司数据和国内某大型机械设备制造商(房地产上游企业)的内部非上市房地产公司数据,运用成熟的传统非线性技术Logit二分类模型来研究反映我国房地产公司信用风险的度量模型。在指标选取上,本文基于对公司违约本质的理论分析,企业守约充分必要条件是企业必须具有一定的还款意愿和相应的还款能力,本文所采用的指标分为财务类指标(体现企业还款能力)和非财务指标(影响企业还款意愿)。本文适用的违约标志是“房地产公司因逾期不支付、无力支付到期债务而遭受债权方诉讼并败诉”,即房地产公司实际发生违约。模型检验方面通过分类预测正确性检验对各模型的效力进行了比较分析。通过实证研究发现,Logit模型具有良好的违约预测能力,财务类指标使用违约前一年数据建模更有效,进一步引入影响企业还款意愿的非财务类指标后,能更好地反映公司信用风险的情况。通过利用非上市房地产公司数据对模型进行检验,发现“以上市房地产公司作为建模样本而获得的信用风险度量模型”基本适用于判别非上市房地产公司的违约风险。最后,由于本文所关注的信用风险主要是以企业间赊销为内容的商业信用风险,基于我国企业信用风险管理现状,尤其是房地产上游企业所面临的严峻环境,本文就如何管理房地产客户信用风险提供实践建议,结合笔者自身企业信用管理工作实践经验,提出“信用风险管理操作流程方案”及实施的细化建议,并就如何将房地产类客户信用风险度量模型运用到企业信用风险管理操作流程的实践中提供建议。
[Abstract]:This paper uses domestic listed real estate company data and internal non-listed real estate company data of a large domestic machinery and equipment manufacturer (real estate upstream enterprise). This paper studies the measurement model of the credit risk of real estate companies in China by using the Logit two-classification model, which is a mature nonlinear technique. In the selection of indicators, based on the theoretical analysis of the nature of corporate default, the sufficient and necessary conditions for the enterprise to keep the contract is that the enterprise must have a certain willingness to repay and the corresponding repayment ability. The indicators used in this paper are classified into financial indicators (reflecting the repayment ability of enterprises) and non-financial indicators (affecting the willingness of enterprises to repay). The sign of breach of contract applied in this paper is that the real estate company is in breach of contract because of overdue payment and inability to pay its debts due to the creditor's lawsuit. In the aspect of model test, the validity of each model is compared and analyzed by the correctness test of classification prediction. Through empirical research, it is found that the logit model has a good ability to predict default, and the financial indicators are more effective to use the data of one year before default, and further introduce the non-financial indicators that affect the willingness of enterprises to repay. Can better reflect the company's credit risk situation. By using the data of non-listed real estate companies to test the model, it is found that "the credit risk measurement model obtained by the real estate companies above the city as the modeling sample" is basically suitable for judging the default risk of the non-listed real estate companies. Finally, because the credit risk of this paper is mainly the commercial credit risk which is based on the content of credit sale between enterprises, based on the current situation of enterprise credit risk management in our country, especially the severe environment faced by the upstream enterprises of real estate. This paper provides practical advice on how to manage the credit risk of real estate customers, combining with the author's own practical experience of enterprise credit management, puts forward the "credit risk management operation flow plan" and the detailed suggestions for implementation. It also provides some suggestions on how to apply the real estate customer credit risk measurement model to the practice of enterprise credit risk management.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.45;F299.23;F224

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