基于实物期权理论的X房地产公司土地储备开发决策分析

发布时间：2018-05-14 03:20

本文选题：土地储备 + 决策　；参考：《北京工业大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着市场环境的变化、行业竞争的激烈演变、公司自身发展的内外需求，公司决策者已经深刻认识到单纯地依靠主观判断越来越不能正确指导公司的土地储备开发工作，，对其进行科学精确的评价是非常必要的。传统的评价方法已不能满足现今房地产项目储备开发的计算，实物期权理论作为对传统评价方法的补充也得到了充分证实。本文旨在运用实物期权评价方法对X房地产公司M项目的土地储备开发工作做出科学决策指导，文章的主要工作分为以下三部分：第一，分别从X房地产公司的外部环境和内部环境要素两方面详细分析了X房地产公司土地储备开发决策环境。通过PEST模型分析认为外部环境利于本公司的发展，并从项目自身因素上分析了内部环境，为后面用实物期权理论进行决策计算打下基础。第二，构建X房地产公司M项目的土地储备开发决策模型。依照实物期权方法在土地储备开发决策中的一贯流程依次完成了对实物期权类别的判断、参数的计算、模型计算方法的构建。第三，计算X房地产公司M项目的土地储备开发价值。通过对比传统评价方法和实物期权方法的差异，得出土地的延迟开发权利在很大程度上增加了土地储备的价值的结论。在此基础上，分析了土地储备开发的时机选择问题。解决了最佳等待时间和决策点到达概率两个问题。最后，通过各因素对土地价值的敏感性分析得到各因素对土地价值的影响程度大小。通过上述分析计算，本文得到了X房地产公司M项目包含延迟期权的土地储备开发价值，及到达最高价值的等待时间和概率。不仅为决策提供了科学指导，也证明了实物期权理论在X房地产公司土地储备开发决策运用上的可行性，为项目开发及公司发展提供了全新视角。
[Abstract]:With the change of the market environment, the fierce evolution of the industry competition and the internal and external demand of the company's own development, the decision-makers have realized that it is more and more difficult to guide the development of the company's land reserve by relying solely on subjective judgment. It is necessary to evaluate it scientifically and accurately. The traditional evaluation method can not meet the current real estate project reserve development calculation, the real option theory as a supplement to the traditional evaluation method has been fully confirmed. The purpose of this paper is to use the real option evaluation method to make scientific decision guidance for the land reserve development of X real estate company M project. The main work of this paper is as follows: Firstly, the paper analyzes X real estate company's land reserve development decision environment in detail from two aspects: external environment and internal environment factor. Through the analysis of PEST model, the author thinks that the external environment is beneficial to the development of the company, and analyzes the internal environment from the project's own factors, which lays the foundation for the decision calculation based on the real option theory. Second, build X real estate company M project of land reserve development decision-making model. According to the consistent process of real option method in land reserve development decision, the classification of real option, the calculation of parameters and the construction of model calculation method are completed in turn. Third, calculate X real estate company M project land reserve development value. By comparing the difference between the traditional evaluation method and the real option method, it is concluded that the delayed development right of land increases the value of land reserve to a great extent. On this basis, this paper analyzes the timing of land reserve development. The optimal waiting time and the decision point arrival probability are solved. Finally, through the sensitivity analysis of each factor to the land value, the influence degree of each factor on the land value is obtained. Through the above analysis and calculation, this paper obtains the value of land reserve development, the waiting time and the probability of reaching the highest value in M project of X real estate company. It not only provides scientific guidance for decision-making, but also proves the feasibility of real option theory in the decision making of land reserve development in X real estate company, and provides a new perspective for project development and company development.
【学位授予单位】：北京工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23

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