宏观调控下的商品住宅价格影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-05-16 13:01

本文选题：商品住宅价格 + 供给　；参考：《大连海事大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文来源于当前的热点话题房地产业,具有现实的研究价值。近些年来,全国一线城市商品住宅市场升温,也引起二三线城市房价攀升,远超过居民的同期收入增长水平,而政府对房价的调控政策的接连出台,也没有压下房价快速上涨的势头。在这种情势下,了解房价上涨的根本原因是至关重要的,本文正试图在这方面做一些有益的尝试。此外,城市住宅价格是政府进行房地产调控的重点所在。通过参考大量文献,发现大多数研究都只从某一角度进行分析,注重某一因素的变化对房价的影响,或只从理论上进行分析,得出的结论明显缺乏说服力。本文的研究思路简要且清晰。首先,从住宅价格、销售量、房企投资、住宅供需情况以及土地的价格和供需情况等主要方面分析了近年来我国住宅商品房市场的现状。然后,从经济学的经典供求理论入手,通过数据表格,折线图,流程图等来阐述导致房价变化的原因,包括分别影响供求两端的主要因素和能够同时影响供求的主要因素。同时,结合2003-2012年北京、上海、深圳、广州、南京、沈阳、宁波等一二三线城市住宅市场相关数据,分区域对这些变量因素与住宅价格的多元关系进行例证分析。研究结果表明：供给方面,成本的增加对房价有推动作用,但不是主要因素；房价的上涨主要受土地供应量和贷款额的影响。土地供应量与房价一般成正相关,而贷款额越大,商品住宅市场就越繁荣。股价主要通过贷款额来影响商品住宅销售价格,但这个过程十分缓慢。和股价相同, 银行拆借利率和货币供应量也是通过影响贷款额进而影响房价。需求方面,住宅刚性需求和投资性需求是房价上涨的两个推动力,而造成需求增加的主因是年龄结构,城市化率和居民人均可支配收入等。最后探讨了国家宏观调控政策对供给和需求端的影响,主要研究了土地政策、货币政策及税收政策的基本机理和传导机制,并重点对设计开征物业税和建设国家保障性住房解决住房供需矛盾的有效性提供了参考建议。现阶段,要想彻底解决房价过高的问题,必须认识到推动房价过高的根本原因是其背后强大的需求群体。因此,政府的调控不应仅仅局限于抑制投资性需求,一方面要保持现阶段宏观调控的力度,另一方面加大力度进行保障性住房的建设,解决根本的住宅性需求。
[Abstract]:This article comes from the current hot topic real estate industry, has the realistic research value. In recent years, The heating up of the commodity housing market in first-tier cities in China has also caused house prices to rise in second-and third-tier cities, far exceeding the number of residents in the same period. The level of income growth, and the government's regulation and control of housing prices, the introduction of successive policies, also did not suppress the rapid rise in house prices The momentum. In this context, it is essential to understand the root causes of the rise in house prices. Some useful attempts are made in this respect. In addition, urban housing prices are the focus of government real estate regulation and control In. By referring to a large number of documents, it is found that most of the studies are only analyzed from a certain angle and pay attention to a certain cause. The effect of the change of element on house price, or only theoretical analysis, the conclusion is obviously not convincing. The research idea of this paper is simple and clear. First, from the house price, the sales volume, the housing enterprise investment, the residence The supply and demand situation, land price and supply and demand situation are analyzed in recent years. The state of the market And then, starting with the classic supply and demand theory of economics, through the data table, the broken line diagram, the flow. To explain the causes of the change in house prices, including the main factors affecting both ends of supply and demand and the same When the main factors affecting supply and demand. At the same time, from 2003 to 2012, Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, The related data of residential market in Nanjing, Shenyang, Ningbo and so on. The multivariate relation of housing price carries on the example analysis. The results show that: on the supply side, the increase of the cost of housing Price is the driving force, but not the main factor; the rise in house prices is mainly influenced by the supply of land and the amount of loans. Land supply is generally positively correlated with house prices, and the larger the loan, the more prosperous the commodity housing market is. Stock price Mainly through the amount of loans to affect commodity residential sales prices, but this process is very slow. The same as the stock price, Bank lending rates and money supply also affect housing prices by influencing loan volumes. On the demand side, housing Rigid demand and investment demand are the two driving forces of house price increase, and age is the main reason for the increase in demand. Structure, urbanization rate and per capita disposable income. Finally, it discusses the supply of the national macro-control policy. And demand-side influence. The basic mechanism and transmission of land policy, monetary policy and tax policy are studied. Mechanism, and focus on the design of property tax and the construction of national affordable housing to solve the housing supply and demand contradictions effective Sex provides reference suggestions. At the present stage, if we want to solve the problem of excessive housing prices, we must realize the root cause of pushing prices too high. The reason is the strong demand group behind it. Therefore, government regulation should not be limited to the suppression of investment demand. On the one hand, it should maintain the strength of macro-control at the present stage, on the other hand, it should strengthen the construction of affordable housing. Set up to solve the fundamental housing needs.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.233.5

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