中国房地产泡沫影响因素研究—从异质性分析的角度

发布时间：2018-05-18 23:00

本文选题：房地产泡沫 + 异质性　；参考：《青岛大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,我国房地产业发展迅猛,并已迅速成为我国经济的支柱产业。我国房地产业的快速发展不仅促进了国民经济的快速增长,而且极大地满足了人民群众的居住需求。但与此同时,我们也应当看到,我国的房地产市场价格,尤其是大中城市房地产价格上涨过快,引发了关于房地产市场是否存在房地产泡沫的讨论。如果房地产市场存有泡沫,一旦泡沫破灭将会对整个国民经济造成严重的负面影响。因此,对于房地产市场泡沫的研究就具有非常深远的现实意义。本文旨在从异质性角度对房地产市场泡沫进行研究。其中理论部分以德隆的DSSW模型中的正反馈交易为基础,将原有模型的假设条件进行改进以使其符合我国房地产市场的实际情况,并以此研究现有房地产市场调控政策(如限购、二手房交易税率、首付款比率等)对房地产市场泡沫的影响效果。研究表明,提高资金借贷利率、二手房交易税率以及限购政策中的首付款比率能够有效的抑制房地产市场泡沫的形成,而对于购置房产数量的限制则不能抑制房地产市场泡沫。在实证分析方面,本文以上海市房地产市场价格为样本,采用1997年-2005年的月度数据,研究分析了人均收入、利率、股指收益、汇率以及前期房价等变量因素对于房地产市场价格波动的影响效果。本文同时运用GARCH模型对上海市2005年后的房地产市场价格进行了预测,并与实际值进行比较,以此检测政府房地产市场调控政策的有效性。实证分析表明：前期房价、汇率、人均收入和利率因素都对当期房价波动具有显著影响。同时,前期房价、汇率、人均收入变化与当期房价波动呈正相关趋势,利率变化与当期房价波动则呈负相关趋势,而股指收益对当期房价波动没有显著影响。运用GARCH模型得出的预测结果与实际房地产市场价格的对比显示：2005年后政府在房地产市场的调控政策对于房价上涨与房地产市场泡沫都有很好的抑制效果,但随着时间的推移,调控政策对房市场市场价格的抑制效果有所降低,造成了房地产市场价格的小幅反弹。为此,本文认为,政府应进一步出台更为严厉的房价调控政策,以遏制房地产市场的投机性投资,保持房地产市场的稳定发展。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China's real estate industry has developed rapidly, and has rapidly become the pillar industry of our economy. The rapid development of China's real estate industry not only promotes the rapid growth of the national economy, but also greatly meets the living needs of the people. But at the same time, we should also see that the real estate market prices, especially the real estate prices in large and medium-sized cities are rising too fast, which leads to a discussion on whether there is a real estate bubble in the real estate market. If there is a bubble in the real estate market, once the bubble burst, it will have a serious negative impact on the whole national economy. Therefore, the real estate market bubble research has a very profound practical significance. The purpose of this paper is to study the bubble of real estate market from the perspective of heterogeneity. The theoretical part is based on the positive feedback transaction in Delon's DSSW model. The hypothesis of the original model is improved to make it conform to the real estate market of our country, and the existing real estate market regulation policy (such as limiting purchase) is studied. Second-hand housing transaction tax rate, down-payment ratio and so on) to the real estate market bubble effect. The research shows that raising the interest rate of capital borrowing, the rate of second-hand housing transaction and the ratio of down payment in the policy of limiting purchase can effectively restrain the formation of real estate bubble, but the restrictions on the amount of property purchased can not restrain the bubble of real estate market. In the empirical analysis, this paper takes the Shanghai real estate market price as the sample, uses the monthly data from 1997 to 2005, studies and analyzes the income of per capita income, interest rate and stock index. The effect of exchange rate and housing price on real estate market price fluctuation. This paper also uses GARCH model to forecast the real estate market price in Shanghai after 2005, and compares with the actual value, so as to test the effectiveness of the government's real estate market regulation policy. The empirical analysis shows that the factors of house price, exchange rate, per capita income and interest rate have significant influence on the current house price fluctuation. At the same time, the change of house price, exchange rate and per capita income is positively correlated with the fluctuation of current house price, while the change of interest rate is negatively correlated with the fluctuation of current house price, while the return of stock index has no significant effect on the fluctuation of current house price. The comparison between the forecast results obtained by using GARCH model and the real estate market prices shows that the government's regulation and control policies in the real estate market after 2005 have a good restraining effect on both the housing price rise and the real estate market bubble, but with the passage of time, Regulation and control of the housing market price suppression effect has been reduced, resulting in a small rebound in real estate prices. Therefore, this paper holds that the government should further introduce more severe housing price control policies in order to curb speculative investment in the real estate market and maintain the stable development of the real estate market.
【学位授予单位】：青岛大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23;F224

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