小额贷款公司客户信用风险影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-05-21 13:12

本文选题：小额信贷 + 小额贷款公司　；参考：《西南财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：小额信贷(Microcredit)是一种特殊的信贷服务,它专门服务于一个社会群体,这个社会群体很难通过传统常规的融资渠道进行融资,而小额信贷通过对他们提供小额度、持续的贷款来满足他们日常生产经营的资金需求。其主要的服务对象包括了个体工商户、小作坊主、小业主、微型、中小型企业以及中低收入群体。小额信贷放贷机构在中国包括了农村商业银行、城市商业银行、邮政储蓄银行等正规金融机构,也包括专业的小额信贷公司。本文侧重研究的是类似作者曾经实习过的成都某外资小额贷款公司这样的专业的商业小额贷款公司,它们的建立合理的集中了民间资金,规范了民间借贷市场,同时也有效地解决了个体工商户、微型、中小型企业融资难的问题。小额贷款对满足个体工商户、微型、中小型企业、农户等中小融资强烈的融资需求,规范民间资本借贷,增加就业,推动经济发展起着巨大的促进作用。但是,我国小额贷款公司成立时间不长,许多问题亟待解决,特别是信贷风险的控制问题。从信用制度和风险评估手段来看,农户、城市个体工商户以及中小企业没有完善的信用环境,也缺乏有效的技术手段对他们进行风险管理；从运营角度来看,很多省市和地区并没有制定对商业小额贷款公司的具体实施规范和措施；此外,资金来源受到限制、业务单一、贷款缺乏抵押物以及服务对象的弱势,导致了小额贷款公司的抗风险能力脆弱。因此探索如何控制和规避小额贷款的风险,促进其健康发展具有重要的现实意义。一、研究目的中国小额贷款由于发展时间不长,小额信贷机构逐步的商业化,开始自主经营、自负盈亏,向着探索能够实现可持续发展的目标而努力,但在此过程中,仍然面临了一些亟待解决的问题,如覆盖率低、难以形成规模、达到盈亏平衡点、信用体系建设滞后、信用风险难以被有效的识别和评估以及管理,这些问题严重制约了我国小额信贷业务发展的进程。而究其本源,造成这些问题的一个非常主要的原因是：小额信贷机构难以有效的对其目标客户进行信用风险水平的识别、评估以及管理,若无法对信用风险水平进行有效的识别就无法保证高比例的偿还率,如果没有一套先进的针对于信用风险的审批流程,就更加的无法在大规模拓展业务的同时保证其较低的坏账率水平。正是因为各大商业银行在这个问题上觉得难以处理,与较大型的企业相比其风险难控,将这部分群体视为高风险群体,避而远之,才给了小额信贷机构这样的一个良机,使得小额信贷机构能够应运而生。再加上小额信贷单笔金额小的基本特征就决定了其运营机构要达到收益覆盖成本这一目标必须形成规模,贷款的量必须上去,这样对于信用风险的审核和控制就显得更加的重要,它是在小额信贷商业化进程中,实现长期可持续性发展中迫在眉睫、亟待突破的一项关键任务。文章的选题思路来自于实习的实际工作中发现小额信贷信用风险管理的不足,如信贷员的激励机制而引起的过量放贷问题,以及由于信贷员水平的不同造成的判断标准不统一的问题,和维持相当数量的信贷员而带来的不必要的业务成本问题等。本文从小额信贷以及小额贷款公司的定义入手,结合国内外对小额信贷信用风险的研究,尝试找出影响商业小额贷款公司客户信用风险的主要因素,并建立相关预测模型。二、研究内容本文共有五章,主要内容如下：第一章是绪论。介绍本文的研究背景及意义,研究内容及结构安排,以及本文的创新之处。第二章是相关理论和文献综述。首先介绍了小额信贷和小额贷款公司的概念、特征等内容；其次,阐述了信用风险的定义以及评价方法,并在此基础上,比较了小额贷公司和商业银行信用风险管理的差异；然后对小额贷款信用风险及其影响因素的相关文献进行了回顾,最后,对以上内容进行了相应的评述,并得到了本文的研究视角。第三章是研究设计。包括样本的设计,变量的选择,假设的提出,研究程序和模型设计。第四章是实证分析。采用logit回归模型,本着全面、有效的原则,搜集了目前国内小额信贷市场活跃的参与群体、具有典型代表性的群体——个体工商户的第一手资料信息,并且从个人自然特征和经济特征两大方面去设计和统计其指标、变量,以达到有效评估的目的。并在logit回归基础上,采用在样本均值水平上计算出边际影响和计算平均边际影响(在每一条观测上计算出边际影响并取均值)这两种方法,对商业小额贷款公司客户信用风险的违约影响因素进行了边际效应分析,并建立了较为简便有效的客户信用风险预测模型。第五章是研究结论及建议。根据第四章实证分析得出本文研究结果,并将研究结果与预期假设进行对比；然后针对本文研究对象提出相应的政策建议与前景展望。最后对本文研究局限性予以说明。三、本文的主要贡献 1.研究视角比较新颖出于保护客户贷款信息的隐私以及防止小额贷款公司商业机密的泄露,通常很难获得商业小额贷款公司客户的具体资料。因此,国内目前的小额贷款研究中,很多是对小额贷款机构的经营模式、规范发展和可持续发展等理论的研究。对于小额贷款信用风险的影响因素,主要的研究领域是：以扶贫和发展农村经济为主要目标的农户小额信贷,以及站在商业银行等正规金融机构的立场上,对客户进行风险管理。而选择以盈利为目的的商业小额贷款公司为视角,进行的相关实证研究还比较少。而本文在合法的基础上获取了大量样本,借鉴其他金融主体对小额信贷违约影响因素研究,以商业小额贷款公司为放款主体,分析客户的信用风险影响因素,对其进行风险控制具有一定意义。此外,本文实证研究的数据来源于成都外资小额贷款公司。数据的范围包括了“大成都地区”,它包括了温江、彭州、郫县、新都、龙泉、华阳等成都郊县,也包含了较大规模的个体工商户的零售市场和批发市场,比如荷花池、双流家具市场等。因此,研究样本较多,原始数据材料接近100页。数据涵盖了整个成都地区融资需求旺盛的个体工商户群体,由于这个群体具有自己的特点,因此本文是站在以成都为代表的西部地区角度上对小额贷款公司客户的信用风险进行研究。 2.改善商业小额贷款公司的风险管理引入logit模型进行小额贷款信用评价之后,信贷人员可以挑选对逾期行为有显著影响的因素进行重点审查。由于模型总体预测能力较高,因此可以通过模型对客户资料进行信用评价,将得出的数值与预先设定的阈值相比较,对客户进行分类,确定是否放贷或者贷款的定价,避免信贷人员因为业绩压力或以权谋私而放宽审核条件而做出的错误的信贷决定。同时,公平、客观的预测模型也避免了因为信贷员水平的参差不齐、主观情绪变化、关注角度的不同而导致的信贷决定的不一致,有利于业务的统一性和规范性。此外,快速有效的信用预测模型可以减少信贷人员的数量和工作量,有利于提高工作效率,降低业务成本。因此该研究对于改善商业小额贷款公司的信用风险管理具有实践意义。 3.变量设计等方面有一定的创新在变量设计方面,本文不仅仅使用从业时间这一变量来衡量客户在业内的资历状况,更创造性的利用管理经验和当前地址经营年限这两个变量,对贷款客户在其行业领域中的经验、人脉、营运能力和稳定性进行考察。本文在logit回归基础上,采用在样本均值水平上计算出边际影响和计算平均边际影响(在每一观测水平上计算出边际影响并取均值)这两种方法,对商业小额贷款公司客户信用风险的逾期影响因素进行了边际效应分析,并学习借鉴对农户小额信贷风险管理的研究,建立了信用风险识别模型。不可否认的是,由于实证研究所用的样本数据来源于大成都地区的客户,存在一定的地域性,且所掌握的材料有限,因此分析过程中的不足,是今后需要进一步加强的地方。另外,鉴于作者的能力水平有限,论文中难免出现偏颇之处,敬请各位专家、学者指正。
[Abstract]:Microcredit (Microcredit) is a special kind of credit service. It specializes in a social group. This social group is very difficult to finance through traditional regular financing channels. Microcredit meets the demand for their daily production and operation by providing small amount and continuous loans to them. It includes individual business, small workshop owners, small owners, micro, small and medium enterprises and middle and low income groups. Microfinance lending institutions in China include rural commercial banks, urban commercial banks, postal savings banks and other regular financial institutions, including professional microfinance companies. This article focuses on the study of similar author Ceng Jingshi. The specialized commercial small loan companies of a foreign small loan company in Chengdu have been established to centrally centralized the private funds and standardize the private lending market. At the same time, it has also effectively solved the problem of financing for individual business households, micro, small and medium enterprises.
Microfinance to meet individual business households, micro, small and medium-sized enterprises, farmers and other small and medium financing demand, standardize private capital lending, increase employment, promote economic development plays a tremendous role in promoting. However, the establishment of small loan companies in China is not long, many problems need to be solved, especially the control of credit risk. From the credit system and risk assessment means, farmers, urban individual industrial and commercial households, and small and medium-sized enterprises have no perfect credit environment, and lack of effective technical means to manage them. From the point of view of operation, many provinces and cities and regions have not formulated specific implementation norms and measures for commercial small loan companies. In addition, the source of funds is limited, the business is single, the loan is lack of collateral and the weakness of the service object, which leads to the vulnerability of the risk resistance of the microfinance companies. Therefore, it is of great significance to explore how to control and avoid the risk of small loans and promote the healthy development of the small loans.
First, the purpose of the study
Because of the low development time and the gradual commercialization of microfinance institutions in China, small credit institutions have begun to operate independently and take their own profits and losses, and strive to explore the goal of achieving sustainable development. However, in this process, there are still some problems to be solved, such as low coverage, difficulty in forming scale, reaching the balance point of profit and loss, and credit body. It is difficult to identify, evaluate and manage credit risk effectively. These problems seriously restrict the development of microfinance business in China. The main reason for these problems is that microcredit institutions are difficult to identify the credit risk level of their target customers effectively. If there is no effective recognition of the credit risk level, the high rate of reimbursement can not be guaranteed. If there is no advanced needle for the credit risk examination and approval process, it is more impossible to guarantee the lower bad debts at the same time in the large-scale expansion of business. It is because the big commercial banks are in this problem. It is difficult to deal with it, and it is difficult to control the risk compared with the larger enterprise. It is a good opportunity to take this part of the group as a high risk group and avoid it. It has given the micro credit institution a good opportunity to make the microcredit institutions come into being. The target of income cover cost must form the scale, the amount of the loan must go up, so it is more important to audit and control the credit risk. It is an urgent task to be breakthroughs in the development of long-term sustainable development in the process of commercialization of micro credit.
The idea of selecting the topic of the article comes from the lack of credit risk management in the practical work of the practice, such as the excessive loan problem caused by the incentive mechanism of the credit clerk, and the disunity of the judgment standards caused by the different levels of the credit officers, and the unnecessary business of maintaining a considerable number of credit officers. Starting with the definition of microfinance and microfinance companies, this paper tries to find out the main factors that affect the credit risk of commercial microfinance companies and establish a related prediction model.
Two, research content
There are five chapters in this paper. The main contents are as follows:
The first chapter is an introduction. It introduces the background and significance of the study, the contents and structure of the research, as well as the innovation of this paper.
The second chapter is related theory and literature review. First, it introduces the concept and characteristics of microfinance and microfinance companies. Secondly, it expounds the definition and evaluation method of credit risk. On this basis, it compares the differences of credit risk management between microfinance companies and commercial banks. Then, the credit risk of microfinance and the credit risk of microfinance are compared. The relevant literature on influencing factors is reviewed, and finally, the above contents are commented accordingly, and the research perspective of this paper is obtained.
The third chapter is research design, including sample design, variable selection, hypothetical proposition, research procedure and model design.
The fourth chapter is an empirical analysis. By using the logit regression model, in accordance with the comprehensive and effective principles, we have collected the active participation groups in the domestic microcredit market, which have typical representative groups, the first hand information of individual business households, and design and statistics their indicators from two aspects of individual natural characteristics and economic characteristics. On the basis of logit regression, two methods are used to calculate the marginal effect and calculate the average marginal effect on the average level of the sample (the marginal effect of each observation and take the mean value) on the basis of the mean level of the sample. The marginal effect of the factors of default on the customer credit risk of the commercial microfinance company is made. It is necessary to analyze and establish a simple and effective prediction model of customer credit risk.
The fifth chapter is the conclusion and suggestion of the study. According to the empirical analysis of the fourth chapter, the results of this study are obtained, and the results are compared with the expected hypothesis; then the corresponding policy suggestions and prospects are put forward. Finally, the limitations of this paper are explained.
Three, the main contribution of this article
1. the perspective of research is new
In order to protect the privacy of customer loan information and prevent the disclosure of commercial secrets of microfinance companies, it is often difficult to obtain specific data from commercial microfinance companies. Therefore, many of the domestic microfinance research is the research on the management model, standard development and sustainable development of microfinance institutions. The main research fields are: microfinance of farmers with the main goal of poverty alleviation and development of rural economy, and the risk management of customers on the standpoint of commercial banks and other regular financial institutions. The empirical study is still relatively small, and this article has obtained a large number of samples on the basis of legal basis, drawing on the influence factors of other financial entities on microfinance default, taking commercial microfinance companies as the main body of lending, analyzing the factors affecting the credit risk of customers, and having certain significance for the risk control.
In addition, the data of this empirical study came from the Chengdu foreign capital microfinance company. The data range includes the "big Chengdu area". It includes Wenjiang, Pengzhou, Pixian, Xindu, Longquan, Hua Yang and other Chengdu suburbs. It also includes a large scale of individual business households, such as the zero sale market and wholesale market, such as Lotus Pond, double flow furniture market, etc. Therefore, the research sample is more, the original data material is close to 100 pages. The data covers the individual industrial and commercial households with high financing demand in Chengdu area. Because the group has its own characteristics, this paper is to study the credit risk of the small loan company customers in the perspective of the western region represented by Chengdu.
2. improving the risk management of commercial microfinance companies
After introducing the logit model to the credit evaluation of small loans, the credit officers can select key factors that have significant impact on overdue behavior.
As a result of the high overall prediction ability, the model can be used to evaluate the customer data through a model, to compare the value to the predetermined threshold, to classify the customers, to determine whether the loan or loan is priced, and to avoid the mistakes made by the credit personnel because of the pressure of performance or the relaxation of the audit conditions. At the same time, the fair, objective prediction model also avoids the inconsistency of credit decisions because of the uneven level of the credit officers, the change of subjective emotions, and the different angles of concern, which is beneficial to the unity and standardization of business.
In addition, a fast and effective credit prediction model can reduce the number and workload of credit personnel, improve work efficiency and reduce business costs. Therefore, this study is of practical significance to improve the credit risk management of commercial microfinance companies.
There are some innovations in the design of 3. variables.
In terms of variable design, this paper not only uses the variable of working time to measure the customer's seniority in the industry, more creative use of management experience and the current address of the two variables, to examine the experience, human connections, operational power and stability of the loan clients in their industry.
On the basis of logit regression, the two methods are used to calculate the marginal effect and calculate the average marginal influence on the average level of the sample (the marginal effect of each observation level and take the mean value). The marginal effect of the customer credit risk in the commercial microfinance company is analyzed, and the study is used for reference to the farmers. Credit risk identification model is established based on the research of micro credit risk management.
It is undeniable that, because the sample data used in the empirical study originates from the customers in the great Chengdu region, there is a certain regional and limited material, so the shortage in the analysis process is the place to be further strengthened in the future. In addition, in view of the limited ability of the author, it is unavoidable to be biased in the paper. Experts and scholars have corrected them.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.4

【参考文献】