我国商品房市场理性预期行为研究

发布时间：2018-05-27 00:17

本文选题：托宾q + 理性预期　；参考：《华东师范大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：约翰·弗雷泽穆思于1961年提出了理性预期假说,这一假说在以罗伯特·卢卡斯为代表的“理性预期学派”的奔走呼吁下,逐渐赢得了越来越多人的关注和研究。由于商品房市场本身就是一个参与人数众多,资金密集,信息量巨大的市场,因此预期因素不可避免的在交易中扮演着不可或缺的角色。就国内的有关商品房市场的研究而言,将理性预期因素纳入其分析框架的不在少数。但这些研究存在着一个共同的特点,就是将理性预期作为研究我国商品房市场时的前提条件,其研究结论都是建立在这一前提之上。这里面就存在一个问题,那就是我国的商品房市场是否是理性预期的?本文就对这一核心问题进行了解答。为了推导出商品房市场的理性预期模型,本文将托宾的q理论纳入了理论模型的推导框架,并将托宾q定义为商品房售价与其重置成本的比,而分析重置成本时,主要考虑了土地的购置费用和竣工造价成本。与其他已有的将托宾q理论应用于研究商品房市场投资额和托宾q关系所不同的是,本文将托宾的q理论应用于商品房市场的供给和需求与托宾q的关系研究,结果发现商品房市场的供给与托宾q正相关,而需求则与托宾q负相关。在将托宾q作为联系商品房供给和需求的价格指标后,推导出了理性预期条件下商品房销售面积的均衡解。检验理性预期假说有两种检验方法,一种是直接检验法,即检验预测的无偏性和有效性；另一种是间接检验法,即结合具体的理论模型对理性预期假说进行检验。本文结合理论部分推导出商品房市场的理性预期模型,采用了间接检验法,检验了商品房市场房屋重置成本的变化对商品房销售面积的影响,结果发现只有未预期到的商品房重置成本的变化才会对商品房销售面积的增长率产生影响,而预期到的商品房重置成本的变化并不会对商品房销售面积的增长率产生实质性的影响,从而证明了我国商品房市场是理性预期的。接着,在上述研究的基础上,本文对政府针对商品房市场的宏观调控应该如何实施提出了相应的意见和建议。最后,从模型的假设、数据的选取、数据的真实准确性、未考虑理性预期对商品房价格的影响等方面揭示了本文研究的不足,又从托宾q和商品房存量的动态图、政府的商品房市场宏观调控的有效性、商品房市场的理性泡沫、个体理性是否能够导致集体非理性,这四个方面指明了下一步研究的方向。
[Abstract]:John Fraser put forward the hypothesis of rational expectation in 1961. Under the appeal of "rational expectation School" represented by Robert Lucas, the hypothesis has gradually won more and more attention and research. As the commercial housing market itself is a large number of participants, capital intensive, huge information market, so the expected factors inevitably play an indispensable role in the transaction. As far as the domestic research on the commercial housing market is concerned, the rational expectation factors are included in its analytical framework. However, there is a common characteristic in these studies, which is to regard rational expectation as the precondition for the study of the commercial housing market in China, and its research conclusions are all based on this premise. There is a problem in this, that is, our commercial housing market is rational expectations? This article has carried on the solution to this core question. In order to deduce the rational expectation model of commercial housing market, this paper brings Tobin's Q theory into the derivation frame of the theoretical model, and defines Tobin Q as the ratio of the selling price of commercial housing to its replacement cost. Mainly considered the land purchase cost and the completion cost. In this paper, we apply Tobin's Q theory to the study of the relationship between the supply and demand of the commercial housing market and Tobin Q, which is different from other existing studies on the relationship between the amount of investment in the commercial housing market and the Tobin Q relationship, and the application of Tobin's Q theory to the study of the supply and demand of the commodity housing market. The results show that the supply of commercial housing market is positively correlated with Tobin Q, while demand is negatively correlated with Tobin Q. Taking Tobin Q as the price index to link the supply and demand of commercial housing, the equilibrium solution of the sales area of commercial housing under the condition of rational expectation is deduced. There are two testing methods to test rational expectation hypothesis, one is direct test method, which is to test the unbiased and validity of prediction, the other is indirect test method, that is, combining with specific theoretical model to test rational expectation hypothesis. In this paper, the rational expectation model of the commercial housing market is deduced in combination with the theory, and the indirect test method is used to test the effect of the change of the replacement cost of the house in the commercial housing market on the sale area of the commercial housing. The results show that only unexpected changes in the replacement cost of commercial housing will have an impact on the growth rate of commercial housing sales area. The change of the expected replacement cost of commercial housing will not have a substantial impact on the growth rate of commercial housing sales area, which proves that the market of commercial housing in our country is rational expectation. Then, on the basis of the above research, this paper puts forward the corresponding opinions and suggestions on how to implement the macro-control of the commercial housing market. Finally, from the hypothesis of the model, the selection of the data, the accuracy of the data, the influence of the rational expectation on the price of the commercial housing, this paper reveals the deficiency of this paper, and from the dynamic graph of Tobin Q and the stock of the commercial house, The effectiveness of the government's macro-control of the commercial housing market, the rational bubble of the commercial housing market, and whether the individual rationality can lead to collective irrationality, these four aspects point out the direction of further research.
【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23

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