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新建商品住房吸纳周期在住房市场监测中的应用研究

发布时间:2018-05-31 17:37

  本文选题:住房流动性 + 吸纳周期 ; 参考:《中国软科学》2014年01期


【摘要】:吸纳周期是表征住房市场流动性特征的重要指标,本文研究了这一指标在住房市场监测中的应用原理与方法,并使用我国40个大中城市数据进行了实证分析。研究表明:吸纳周期存在一个表征市场供求均衡与价格稳定的均衡水平,市场当前吸纳周期水平与其均衡水平的对比关系可以作为判断市场发展趋势变化的重要参考。当吸纳周期高于均衡水平时,价格下跌的概率增加,土地购置与开发活动减弱;当吸纳周期低于均衡水平时,价格上涨的概率增加,土地购置与开发活动增强。通过实证研究发现,我国40个主要城市平均的吸纳周期均衡水平约为12个月,但存在着较大的城市间差异。除了数据统计质量的影响以外,住房价格上涨预期、土地与开发成本、市场风险以及市场垄断程度等因素都会影响到均衡水平的大小。因此,在实际应用中,需要在不同城市设置相应的吸纳周期均衡水平。
[Abstract]:The absorption cycle is an important indicator to characterize the liquidity characteristics of the housing market. This paper studies the application principle and method of this index in housing market monitoring, and makes an empirical analysis using the data of 40 large and medium-sized cities in China. The study shows that there exists an equilibrium level of market supply and demand equilibrium and price stability in the absorption cycle. The contrast between the current absorption cycle level and its equilibrium level can be used as an important reference to judge the change of market development trend. When the absorption cycle is higher than the equilibrium level, the probability of price falling increases and the land acquisition and development activities weaken, and when the absorption cycle is below the equilibrium level, the probability of price rising increases and the land acquisition and development activities increase. Through empirical research, it is found that the average equilibrium level of absorption cycle is about 12 months in 40 major cities in China, but there are large differences among cities. In addition to the impact of statistical quality, the expected rise in housing prices, land and development costs, market risks and market monopoly will affect the size of the equilibrium level. Therefore, in practical application, it is necessary to set up corresponding absorption cycle equilibrium level in different cities.
【作者单位】: 清华大学恒隆房地产研究中心;
【基金】:国家自然科学基金项目(70873072) 国家社科基金重大项目(09&ZD042)
【分类号】:F293.3

【参考文献】

相关期刊论文 前4条

1 郑思齐 ,刘洪玉;吸纳周期:一个比空置率更能有效反映住宅市场供求状况的指标[J];中国房地产;2004年02期

2 杨振鹏;刘洪玉;;新建住房吸纳周期:一个领先的预警指标[J];中国房地产;2011年02期

3 吴t,

本文编号:1960712


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