我国房地产泡沫的经济分析与对策研究

发布时间：2018-06-03 09:21

本文选题：中国房地产 + 泡沫　；参考：《西安科技大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来，中国的房地产行业快速发展，投资量和销售量都大幅度增加。房地产业已经成为我国国民经济支柱产业之一，促进了我国经济的繁荣。然而，快速发展并不代表发展的合理与高效，供求结构的不平衡，房价高位运行我国房地产业发展中的主要问题。中国政府近年来对房地产加大调控力度，各种政策不断出台，以促进房地产价格的理性回归，，十八大又重申了对房地产的调控是稳定的方向，不能放松。本文对房地产泡沫的定义和相关理论进行了总结归纳，在此基础上，对中国房地产市场的现状进行了分析。文中选取了不同的指标对泡沫进行了测度，在对统计年鉴的数据整理的基础上，运用需求因素模型和Ramsey模型对当前的泡沫水平进行了实证分析。分析表明我国房地产市场存在泡沫。房地产泡沫形成有供求两方面的原因。我国土地资源的稀缺性，过度的金融支持，加之租赁市场欠发达，投机氛围浓厚，促成了房价高位运行，滋生了房地产泡沫。房地产泡沫的危害很大，应该及时得到遏制。由于虚拟经济的虚假繁荣，金融风险加大，房价过高也引起了投机猖獗，实体经济的发展受到打击，经济结构失衡，社会道德滑坡，这都不利于和谐社会的建设。本文借鉴美国、日本、新加坡等国政策措施的经验教训，提出了我国控制房地产泡沫的对策建议。在土地方面增加有效供给，同时拓展融资渠道，减小金融风险。政府的调控政策也应当稳定，从而引导公众的预期以及资金的合理流向，发展实业。国家应该建立更完善的保障住房系统，来保障中低收入人群的住房问题。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China's real estate industry has developed rapidly, investment and sales volume have increased significantly. The real estate industry has become one of the pillar industries of our national economy and promoted the prosperity of our economy. However, the rapid development does not represent the reasonable and efficient development, the imbalance of supply and demand structure, and the main problems in the development of the real estate industry in our country. In recent years, the Chinese government has stepped up the regulation and control of real estate, and various policies have been introduced to promote the rational return of real estate prices, and the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China has reiterated that the regulation and control of real estate is a stable direction and cannot be relaxed. In this paper, the definition of real estate bubble and related theories are summarized, and on this basis, the current situation of China's real estate market is analyzed. In this paper, different indexes are selected to measure the bubble. On the basis of the statistical yearbook data collation, the demand factor model and Ramsey model are used to analyze the current bubble level empirically. The analysis shows that there is a bubble in our real estate market. Real estate bubble formation has two reasons for supply and demand. The scarcity of land resources, excessive financial support, underdeveloped rental market and strong speculative atmosphere have contributed to the high operation of house prices and created a real estate bubble. Real estate bubble harm is very big, should be contained in time. Because of the fictitious prosperity of fictitious economy, the increase of financial risk, the high house price also causes the speculation rampant, the development of the real economy is hit, the economic structure is out of balance, the social morals is declining, all these are unfavorable to the construction of the harmonious society. This paper draws lessons from the policies and measures of the United States, Japan and Singapore, and puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions for controlling the real estate bubble in China. Increase effective supply of land, at the same time expand financing channels, reduce financial risks. The government's regulation and control policy should be stable so as to guide the public's expectation and the reasonable flow of capital to develop industry. The country should establish a better housing system to protect the housing problems of low-and middle-income people.
【学位授予单位】：西安科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23

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