基于风险管理视角下我国股票市场泡沫研究

发布时间：2018-06-15 21:35

本文选题：风险管理 + 股市泡沫　；参考：《云南师范大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着社会经济的不断发展，股票作为经济发展的产物之一不断被各国家和企业所重视，为经济的发展作出了巨大的贡献。但是，伴随股票产生的还有一种人们不愿见到的现象——股票泡沫。它是指股票市场中的绝大多数股票的价格在一定时期内（通常时间较短）的持续性、非正常性以及无规律性地上涨，使得股票的市盈率迅速上升，股票的实际价格与其理论内在价值严重相偏离的一种恶性经济现象。特别在信用制度空前发达的今天，股票泡沫发生的频率越来越高、影响的规模越来越大、波及的范围也越来越广。 2008年发生的美国次贷危机①席卷全球，给世界各国的经济带来了严重的影响，并且对全球的股票市场也造成了极大的重创。我们不禁要问，下一次的股市泡沫会在什么时候，在什么地方以及以种形式再次发生？但是至今为止，还没有人能够对这个问题给出准确的回答。目前，，经济学家们对股票泡沫的研究尚处于初步认识阶段，它的产生机理和运行的过程还有许多问题没有得到大家的普遍认同，应对股市泡沫的有效措施目前也在不断的探索之中。本文试图从风险管理的视角来分析研究我国股票市场的泡沫问题。首先对风险管理和股市泡沫相关理论进行梳理和总结；然后对1929年的美国纽约股市大崩盘、1997年亚洲金融危机和2008年美国次贷危机进行分析，并得出应对股市泡沫的相关启示；最后对我国的股市进行基本面描述，并基于风险管理的视角，从股市泡沫的识别、股市泡沫的测量以及股市泡沫发生后的处理这三方面来描述我国股票市场从1997年至2011年的泡沫情况。通过市盈率模型、F-O模型计和马歇尔K值系数模型算出历年的股市泡沫度。通过相关分析比较后得出结论：我国股票市场在2000年和2007年具有非常大的泡沫，而在其它年份，我国股票市场的泡沫程度和成熟的证券市场相比仍然处于较高区位运行。目前，由于受到国际经济不景气的大背景的影响，我国股票市场的泡沫度处于相对较低水平。本文的主要创新点为：主要从风险管理的视角下来研究我国的股市泡沫问题，具体细化为股市泡沫的识别、股市泡沫的计量及股市泡沫的处理三个方面来具体的风险研究，并为股市泡沫风险预警的具体实现和操作作出了积极的理论探索和建设。
[Abstract]:Along with the development of the social economy , the stock as one of the products of economic development has been paid more and more attention by various countries and enterprises , and has made great contribution to the development of the economy .

However , there is a phenomenon _ stock bubble that people do not want to see along with the stock market . It refers to the persistent , abnormal and non - regular rise of the price of most stock in the stock market , which makes the price - earnings ratio of the stock rise rapidly , and the actual price of the stock deviates from the intrinsic value of the theory . Especially in the unprecedented developed credit system , the frequency of the stock bubble is getting higher and more , the scale of the influence is more and more extensive , and the scope of the wave is also more and more extensive .

The U.S . subprime crisis , which took place in 2008 , swept around the world and had a serious impact on the economies of the world , and the global stock market created a huge hit . What time did the next stock market bubble and where and what sort of form would happen again ?

But so far , no one can give an accurate answer to this question . At present , economists are still in the preliminary cognition stage of the research on the stock bubble , and there are many problems in its production mechanism and operation . There are many problems that have not been widely accepted , and the effective measures to deal with the stock market bubble are still being explored .

This paper tries to analyze the problem of bubbles in China ' s stock market from the perspective of risk management . Firstly , the theories of risk management and stock market bubble are summarized and summarized .
Then the 1929 American New York stock market crash , the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and the American subprime crisis in 2008 were analyzed , and the relevant revelations to the stock market bubble were obtained .
Finally , the stock market of our country is described , and based on the perspective of risk management , the bubble in China ' s stock market from 1997 to 2011 is described from the recognition of stock market bubble , the measurement of stock market bubble and the treatment of stock market bubble .

It is concluded that China ' s stock market has a very large bubble in 2000 and 2007 , while in other years , China ' s stock market is still at a higher level than the mature stock market . At present , China ' s stock market has a relatively low level of foam due to the big background of the international economic downturn .

The main innovation points of this paper are : mainly from the perspective of risk management , we study the stock market bubble in our country , which is detailed into the recognition of the stock market bubble , the measurement of the stock market bubble and the treatment of the stock market bubble , and makes a positive theoretical exploration and construction for the concrete realization and operation of the stock market bubble risk early warning .
【学位授予单位】：云南师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.51

【参考文献】