我国货币政策调控房地产价格有效性分析

发布时间：2018-06-16 10:14

本文选题：货币政策 + 房地产价格　；参考：《山西财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：虽然我们国家的房地产市场发展迅速，但是也带来了许多问题，诸如：房价逐步上涨远超过人们的预期等等问题。本文正是在这种大背景下，从金融学的角度来研究我国货币政策调整会对房地产业产生什么样的影响，，以及怎么样才能有效发挥市场对房价的调节作用。本文首先在货币政策和资产价格相互关系研究的成果基础上进行系统概述，从货币渠道和信贷渠道两种途径重点分析了货币政策传导机制相关理论，以及对货币政策的房地产价格传导途径进行了理论分析。其次，充分运用Eviews6.0软件，搜集国家相关部门公布的2004年2月到2012年7月货币政策变量和房价的月度数据，在实证的角度对改变国内货币政策变量对房地产价格的影响效果进行检验，验证结果显示利率的改变对房地产价格的影响为负，央行改变货币发行量对房地产价格的影响为正；同时证明货币供给量和银行利率能够在一定程度上解释房价的波动趋势，但是利率水平的变动对我国的房地产价格只能产生比较微弱的影响，表明央行通过调整货币供给调控房价的效果比通过利率手段更显著。最后根据理论和实证结论，本文从提高中国货币政策调控体系的有效性，维持中国房地产市场稳定有序的发展及相关配套措施三个层面，提出了一些对策建议。
[Abstract]:Although our country's real estate market is developing rapidly, it also brings many problems, such as: the rising of house prices far exceeds people's expectations and so on. Under this background, this paper studies the influence of the adjustment of monetary policy on real estate industry from the perspective of finance, and how to play the role of market to adjust the housing price effectively. Based on the results of the research on the relationship between monetary policy and asset prices, this paper first analyzes the relevant theories of monetary policy transmission mechanism from two ways: monetary channel and credit channel. As well as the monetary policy of real estate price transmission approach for theoretical analysis. Secondly, we should make full use of Eviews6.0 software to collect monthly data on monetary policy variables and house prices published by relevant state departments from February 2004 to July 2012. The effect of changing domestic monetary policy variables on real estate price is tested from the empirical point of view. The results show that the change of interest rate has negative effect on real estate price, and the effect of central bank change on real estate price is positive. At the same time, it proves that money supply and bank interest rate can explain the fluctuation trend of house price to some extent, but the change of interest rate level can only have a relatively weak influence on the real estate price of our country. The result shows that the central bank can adjust the money supply to control the house price more effectively than through the interest rate. Finally, according to the theoretical and empirical conclusions, this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions from three aspects: improving the effectiveness of China's monetary policy control system, maintaining the stable and orderly development of China's real estate market and related supporting measures.
【学位授予单位】：山西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F822.0;F299.23

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