省际资本流动—理论与实证研究

发布时间：2018-06-17 13:51

本文选题：FH之谜 + 资本流动　；参考：《辽宁大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：省际资本流动性高低关系到全国市场范围的大小及资本的有效利用问题，斯密认为分工受市场范围的限制，要素流动性的强弱是市场范围的直接体现，要素的有效利用则关系到最终产出的大小。本文主要研究1992年深化市场经济体制改革后省际间资本流动情况，时间为1992-2009，采用最新的面板时间序列方法，对省际间储蓄率和投资率的关系进行了估计，进行面板单位根检验后，发现储蓄率与投资率都是I（1）变量，但存在协整关系。传统的固定效应、随机效应模型得出储蓄率与投资率之间高度相关，但这种估计忽视了个体异质性、相关性以及储蓄留存系数随时间的变化性，对个体间的相关性进行检验后发现不同个体间存在显著相关性，为了克服异质性、时变性与相关性，分别用MG与CMG估计量估计，发现CMG估计的系数已经不显著，而这一估计具有良好的统计性质。随后用GMM方法对储蓄与投资关系进行动态面板估计发现储蓄留存系数依然是不显著的。右手边方程中加入fdi之后进行的同样估计发现储蓄留存系数依旧不显著，在这些估计之后我们认为储蓄率与投资率之间不存在显著的关系。这一结论与Li Cheng(2010)和Boyreau-Debray and Wei（2004）的研究结果不一样，主要原因在于我们这里使用的样本区间为1992-2009，，而这一时间内省际间的资本和劳动等要素流动性已经有大幅度提高。 92年之后确立了建立市场经济体制的目标，中央政府下决心打破地方保护主义建立统一的国内市场，进行了中央地方税制改革，金融机构重组与垂直管理重塑；2001年加入了WTO，这都有利于要素流动。地方也有激励来增加要素流动性，在政治集权与经济分权的治理模式下，地方政府经济上有很大的自主权，政治上存在晋升激励。地方政府官员为了获得政治上晋升，必须以政绩为筹码，形成了为增长而竞争的格局。比较资本流动与不流动，资本流动对经济增长是有利的，中央政府是福利性政府，追求经济增长，地方政府在经济增长方面的目标与中央政府一致，他们为了获得更快的经济增长和政治晋升，地方政府增加基础设施投资以及采取好的政策以吸引资本流入，地方政府间的竞争使得省际间的资本流动性增强。这种解释与资本自动向收益高的地方流动不一样，地方政府的干预使得资本流动性增强。Li Cheng（2010）也证实各省投资率与GDP增长率间并不存在明显的Granger因果关系。说明资本并不必然流向收益高的地方。
[Abstract]:The inter-provincial capital liquidity is related to the size of the national market and the effective use of capital. Smith thinks that the division of labor is restricted by the market scope, and the strength of the factor liquidity is the direct embodiment of the market scope. The effective use of elements is related to the size of the final output. This paper mainly studies the situation of inter-provincial capital flow after deepening the reform of market economy system in 1992, the time is 1992-2009.Using the latest panel time series method, the paper estimates the relationship between inter-provincial savings rate and investment rate. After panel unit root test, it is found that both savings rate and investment rate are I / 1) variables, but there is cointegration relationship. The traditional fixed effect, stochastic effect model shows that the savings rate is highly correlated with the investment rate, but this estimate ignores individual heterogeneity, correlation and the variation of savings retention coefficient over time. In order to overcome the heterogeneity, time variability and correlation, MG and CMG estimators were used to estimate the coefficients of CMG estimation, and it was found that the coefficients of CMG estimation were not significant. This estimate has good statistical properties. Then the GMM method is used to estimate the relationship between savings and investment. It is found that the retention coefficient of savings is still not significant. After adding fdi to the right-hand side equation, the same estimate shows that the retention coefficient of savings is still not significant. After these estimates, we think there is no significant relationship between savings rate and investment rate. This conclusion is different from the findings of Li Cheng-2010 and Boyreau-Debray and Weiwei 2004. The main reason is that the sample interval we use here is 1992-2009, and the inter-provincial capital and labor mobility has been greatly improved during this period. After 92 years, the goal of establishing a market economy system was established. Determined to break local protectionism and establish a unified domestic market, the central and local tax system reform, the restructuring of financial institutions and vertical management remodeling; in 2001 joined WTO, which are conducive to the flow of factors. Under the governance mode of political centralization and economic decentralization, local government has great autonomy in economy and promotion incentive in politics. In order to get political promotion, local government officials must take achievements as chips and form a pattern of competition for growth. Compared with capital flow and non-mobility, capital flow is beneficial to economic growth. The central government is a welfare government and pursues economic growth. Local governments have the same goals in terms of economic growth as the central government. To achieve faster economic growth and political advancement, local governments have increased infrastructure investment and adopted good policies to attract capital inflows, and competition between local governments has increased inter-provincial capital mobility. This explanation is different from the automatic flow of capital to areas with high returns. The intervention of local governments enhances capital liquidity. Li Chengwei 2010) also proves that there is no Granger causality between the investment rate and GDP growth rate in each province. It shows that capital does not necessarily flow to areas with high returns.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.5;F224

【参考文献】