实地调研对分析师盈利预测准确性的影响

发布时间：2018-06-18 11:59

本文选题：分析师 + 盈利预测　；参考：《复旦大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：与一般投资者相比,证券分析师具有专业优势和信息优势,能够通过发布盈利预测向资本市场提供新的信息,从而减少资本市场的信息不对称,提高资源配置效率。大量研究表明,分析师的盈利预测具有一定的准确性和价值相关性,但影响分析师盈利预测准确性的因素较多,主要可以分为目标公司方面的影响因素和分析师方面的影响因素。本文主要研究实地调研对分析师盈利预测准确性的影响,是对分析师方面影响因素研究的一个有效补充。本文以2008～2010年中国证券分析师的盈利预测和实地调研数据为样本,对实地调研对分析师盈利预测准确性的影响,以及目标公司盈余管理动机、信息披露质量对这种影响的作用进行了深入研究,研究结果表明,目前我国分析师的实地调研具有一定的有效性。本文发现,实地调研能够显著降低分析师盈利预测的误差,提高盈利预测的准确性,即实地调研作为分析师获取私有信息的重要渠道,能够提供有价值的信息。本文的实证结果也为之前学者的研究提供了证据支持,即预测期的长短、目标公司的规模、盈利波动性、盈余管理动机的存在会对分析师盈利预测准确性产生负向影响,而信息披露质量、目标公司得到的分析师关注度会对分析师盈利预测准确性产生正向影响。本文还发现,对于存在明显盈余管理动机和信息披露质量较低的公司进行实地调研,对分析师盈利预测准确性的提高效应越大。因为在这类公司中,公共信息的可获得性较差、信息质量较低,针对这些公司的实地调研所获取的私有信息具有更高的边际收益,是对公共信息披露不足的一种有效补充。
[Abstract]:Compared with general investors, securities analysts have professional advantages and information advantages, and can provide new information to the capital market by issuing profit forecasts, thus reducing the information asymmetry in the capital market and improving the efficiency of resource allocation. A large number of studies have shown that analysts' earnings forecasts have certain accuracy and value correlation, but there are many factors that affect the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts. It can be divided into the influence factors of the target company and the influence factors of the analysts. This paper focuses on the impact of field research on the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts, which is an effective complement to the research on the factors affecting analysts. This paper takes the profit forecast and field survey data of Chinese securities analysts from 2008 to 2010 as samples to analyze the impact of field research on the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecast, as well as the earnings management motivation of target companies. The effect of the quality of information disclosure on this kind of influence has been studied in depth. The results show that the field research of Chinese analysts is effective. This paper finds that field research can significantly reduce the error of analysts' earnings forecasts and improve the accuracy of earnings forecasts. As an important channel for analysts to obtain private information, field research can provide valuable information. The empirical results of this paper also provide evidence support for previous studies, that is, the length of the forecast period, the size of the target company, the volatility of earnings, and the existence of earnings management motivation will have a negative impact on the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecast. And the quality of information disclosure and the analyst focus on target companies will have a positive impact on the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts. It is also found that the higher the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts, the greater the effect of field research on companies with obvious earnings management motivation and low disclosure quality. Because of the poor availability of public information and the low quality of information in these companies, the private information obtained by field research for these companies has higher marginal income, which is an effective supplement to the insufficient disclosure of public information.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.51;F275

【参考文献】