油轮运费率与油轮公司股价关联性分析

发布时间：2018-06-24 09:51

本文选题：油轮运费率 + 股票价格　；参考：《大连海事大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：由于受到之前世界经济状况不良的影响,航运市场进入萧条状态,许多航运上市公司的股票价格也是一落千丈。如今虽然世界经济已经逐渐恢复正常,但是航运市场仍旧疲软,国内部分航运上市公司的股票也被挂牌处理。了解油轮运费率同油轮公司股票价格之间的关系,可以更好地帮助决策者和投资者对企业未来的管理和投资。尤其在近年来航运市场不断波动的情况下,加强油轮运费率和油轮公司股票价格之间的关联性研究,既可以不断丰富油轮运费率的实际意义,同时又能给股票市场上的投资者提供一定参考信息。因此研究油轮运费率和油轮公司股票价格的关联性,具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。论文首先回顾了运费率指数和股票价格方面的文献,以及研究两者关联性的文献。接着又对股票定价理论和相关性理论进行了研究,并且介绍了油轮运费率的计算方法。然后通过国内油轮运输上市公司股票价格影响因素分析,总结出了油轮运费率对油轮公司股票价格的影响机理。然后根据前文分析,并结合样本数据的特征,选用BDTI运费指数和两家航运上市公司的股票价格的时间序列作为研究变量。在对时间序列的数据样本进行过处理后,就对油轮运费率和股票价格进行协整检验,发现油轮运费率和航运上市公司的股票价格间存在协整关系。所以在上一步的研究基础上,又对油轮运费率和上市公司股票价格进行了Granger因果关系检验。然后又进一步对它们建立向量误差修正模型,来研究它们之间长期与短期间的相互关系,发现短期内油轮运费率的变化会引起上市公司股票价格的变化,长期如果两者偏离均衡状态会受到一个负向的调整力度。最后,得出油轮运费率和股票价格相关性结论,为投资者在进行投资决策时提供一些参考意见。
[Abstract]:Due to the bad world economic situation before, the shipping market has entered a depression, and the stock prices of many shipping listed companies have also plummeted. Although the world economy has gradually returned to normal, the shipping market is still weak, and some of the shares of domestic listed shipping companies have also been listed. Understanding the relationship between tanker freight rate and the stock price of tanker company can better help the decision makers and investors to manage and invest in the future of the enterprise. Especially in recent years, with the continuous fluctuation of shipping market, it can enrich the practical significance of tanker freight rate by strengthening the research on the correlation between tanker freight rate and the stock price of tanker company. At the same time, it can also provide certain reference information to investors in the stock market. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the correlation between tanker freight rate and stock price of tanker company. Firstly, the paper reviews the literature on freight rate index and stock price, and studies the relationship between them. Then the stock pricing theory and correlation theory are studied, and the calculation method of tanker freight rate is introduced. Then through the analysis of the influencing factors of the stock price of the listed oil tanker transportation companies, the paper summarizes the influence mechanism of the tanker freight rate on the stock price of the oil tanker company. Then according to the above analysis and the characteristics of the sample data, we choose the BDTI freight index and the time series of the stock price of the two shipping listed companies as the research variables. After processing the data sample of time series, the cointegration test of tanker freight rate and stock price is carried out, and it is found that there is a cointegration relationship between tanker freight rate and stock price of listed shipping company. Therefore, on the basis of the previous research, the Granger causality test of tanker freight rate and listed company stock price is carried out. Then the vector error correction model is established to study the relationship between them in the long term and in the short term. It is found that the change of tanker freight rate in the short term will lead to the change of stock price of listed companies. In the long run, if both deviate from the equilibrium state, they will be subject to a negative adjustment. Finally, the conclusion of correlation between tanker freight rate and stock price is obtained, which provides some reference for investors in making investment decisions.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F551;F831.51;F224

【参考文献】