实物期权法在飞机经营租赁决策中的应用研究

发布时间：2018-06-25 01:10

本文选题：租赁决策 + 净现值法　；参考：《中央民族大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：飞机租赁是当今世界各国航空公司更新和扩充机队的基本手段之一。在我国,飞机租赁方兴未艾,大部分的航空公司都已开展飞机租赁业务以融资融物,以支持航空公司快速发展。租赁业务在发展深化的过程中衍生出许多种方式,每种方式之间又具有差异化,所以在面对不同租赁方式的选择时,航空公司就需要选择一个最佳租赁方式。所谓租赁决策就是要在不同条件下,分析每种的方式的利弊所在,通过全面、有效的价值评估,做出最佳的方案选择。租赁决策的有效性事关企业资金使用的合理性和效率,是企业盈利的重要支撑。航空运输市场随着全球经济环境的起伏而波动,航空公司投资决策需要考虑的一个重要因素就是未来市场的不确定性对公司发展的影响。经营性租赁飞机以其较低的综合成本、较高的灵活性而成为航空公司的现实选择。传统的现金流折现(如净现值法、内部收益率法等)方法在进行租赁项目评估时往往隐含着一些不切实际的假设,如租赁项目不能中途撤销、租赁到期时不能续租或者留置等。也就是说传统的现金流折现方法认为项目在未来不能做出任何调整和变化。因此,经营灵活性项目以及具有战略增长性项目在投资决策评价时往往会被低估项目价值,导致错失投资机会。飞机经营租赁决策中存在着类似于金融期权的选择权,如能准确定量的把它们计算出来,则对科学决策有很大的帮助。针对传统现金流折现方法的不足,本文在参考国内和国际租赁决策理论研究的基础上,集中研究了实物期权方法在租赁决策中的运用本文第一步先分析了租赁项目中的不确定性和租赁管理的灵活性,阐述了传统租赁决策方法对于具有选择权的租赁项目评估时的缺陷和不足。随后,本文引入了实物期权的理论和方法,详细的介绍了实物期权的原理及应用,并且证明了在具有灵活性特征的经营租赁项目中应用实物期权法进行租赁决策评估的科学性。最后以飞机经营性租赁决策为例进行了实物期权的特征分析,并且建立了一个实物期权决策模型,比较了传统的租赁决策的方法和实物期权方法的差异,得出了实物期权方法更加科学、有效的结论。
[Abstract]:Aircraft leasing is one of the basic means for airlines in the world to renew and expand their fleet. In China, aircraft leasing is in the ascendant. Most airlines have launched aircraft leasing business to finance and finance to support the rapid development of airlines. In the process of the development and deepening of leasing business, there are many kinds of ways, and there are differences between each way, so in the face of different leasing methods, airlines need to choose the best lease mode. The so-called leasing decision is to analyze the advantages and disadvantages of each way under different conditions, and make the best option through comprehensive and effective value evaluation. The validity of leasing decision is related to the rationality and efficiency of the use of enterprise funds, and is an important support for enterprise profits. The air transport market fluctuates with the global economic environment. One of the important factors to be considered in the decision making of airline investment is the influence of the uncertainty of the future market on the development of the airline. Because of its low comprehensive cost and high flexibility, operating leased aircraft has become a realistic choice for airlines. The traditional method of discounting cash flow (such as net present value method, internal rate of return method, etc.) often implies some impractical assumptions in the evaluation of leasing project, such as the lease item can not be revoked halfway, the lease can not be renewed or retained when lease expires, and so on. That is to say, the traditional cash flow discounting method thinks that the project can not make any adjustment and change in the future. Therefore, flexible projects and strategic growth projects are often underestimated in investment decision evaluation, resulting in missed investment opportunities. There are options similar to financial options in aircraft leasing decisions. If they can be calculated accurately and quantitatively, they will be of great help to scientific decision making. In view of the deficiency of the traditional cash flow discounting method, this paper makes reference to the domestic and international leasing decision theory. This paper focuses on the application of real option method in lease decision. The first step of this paper is to analyze the uncertainty of lease project and the flexibility of lease management. The defects and shortcomings of the traditional leasing decision method in the evaluation of leasing items with option are expounded. Then, this paper introduces the theory and method of real option, introduces the principle and application of real option in detail, and proves that it is scientific to apply real option method to lease decision evaluation in the flexible leasing project. Finally, the paper analyzes the characteristics of real options with the example of aircraft operating lease decision, and establishes a real option decision model, and compares the difference between the traditional lease decision method and the real option method. The conclusion that the real option method is more scientific and effective.
【学位授予单位】：中央民族大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.49;F562.6

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