基于模糊理论的商业地产投资风险评价研究

发布时间：2018-06-26 00:40

本文选题：商业地产 + 投资风险　；参考：《湖南工业大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来，随着我国经济结构转型、城市化进程推进、居民可支配收入持续增长、消费结构优化升级以及住宅地产国家宏观调控政策紧密出台等多重效应下，作为房地产重要组成部分的商业地产正成为诸多房地产开发企业争相转型的领域。自2010年以来，我国主要的房地产开发企业均公布了商业地产投资发展战略，大量资金涌入商业地产投资领域，成为国民经济新的投资热点。然而，商业地产投资具有高度综合性、高度关联性、投资额度大、开发周期长等特点，是一项高收益、高风险的投资活动。因此，在我国相关理论和政策还不够完善的情况下，进行商业地产投资风险分析与评价问题的研究是十分必要的，具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文在借鉴国内外房地产行业投资风险研究相关理论的基础上，界定了商业地产与商业地产投资的概念。从开发商的角度出发，对我国商业地产投资全过程的风险因素分阶段进行了识别。通过专家调查法初选出风险评价指标，并在指标重要性筛选与指标体系设置原则的基础上，构建出商业地产投资风险的评价指标体系。鉴于评价体系的多层次复杂性，，评价指标难以定量化等特点，综合分析各评价方法的优缺点后，选择将层次分析法和模糊综合评价法相结合，以模糊理论为基础构建出模糊层次综合评价模型。最后，以福州苏宁广场项目为例，验证了模型的合理可行性，并从风险管理的角度出发，提出商业地产投资风险防范与控制的具体措施。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the transformation of economic structure, the advancement of urbanization, the continuous growth of disposable income of residents, the optimization and upgrading of consumption structure and the tight introduction of macro-control policies for residential real estate, and so on, As an important part of real estate, commercial real estate is becoming a field of transformation for many real estate development enterprises. Since 2010, the major real estate development enterprises in China have announced the development strategy of commercial real estate investment, and a large number of funds have poured into the commercial real estate investment field, which has become a new investment hot spot in the national economy. However, commercial real estate investment has the characteristics of high synthesis, high correlation, large investment quota and long development cycle. It is a high return and high risk investment activity. Therefore, under the condition that the relevant theories and policies of our country are not perfect, it is very necessary to study the risk analysis and evaluation of commercial real estate investment, which has important theoretical and practical significance. This paper defines the concept of commercial real estate and commercial real estate investment based on the theory of investment risk in real estate industry at home and abroad. From the point of view of developers, the risk factors of the whole process of commercial real estate investment in China are identified in stages. The risk evaluation index is selected by expert investigation method, and the evaluation index system of commercial real estate investment risk is constructed on the basis of index importance screening and index system setting principle. In view of the multi-level complexity of the evaluation system and the difficulty of quantifying the evaluation index, the advantages and disadvantages of each evaluation method are comprehensively analyzed, and the AHP and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method are selected to combine. On the basis of fuzzy theory, a comprehensive evaluation model of fuzzy hierarchy is constructed. Finally, taking Fuzhou Su Ning Square Project as an example, the reasonable feasibility of the model is verified, and from the point of view of risk management, the concrete measures to prevent and control the risk of commercial real estate investment are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：湖南工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23

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