资产价格与银行信贷对产业“空心化”影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-07-10 17:58

本文选题：资产价格波动 + 银行信贷　；参考：《江西财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来，我国产业结构发生了翻天覆地的变化。这种变化包括两个方面，一方面是产业与产业之间的变化，另一方面是某个产业内部组成结构的变化。第一个方面主要是指制造业（也称为第二产业）与第一产业和第三产业在整个产业体系中所占比重的变化；第二个方面主要是指九大子制造业的产出比例关系的变化，主要表现是重化工和初级产品子行业的增长相对较快，其他行业的发展缓慢甚至出现了萎缩。这种变化有其历史背景和现实意义，，它不仅仅是在我国经济处于快速发展阶段出现的，更是我国加入WTO，面对经济全球化，各种资源要素在有限条件下所发生的变化。针对我国未来经济的发展，目前这种产业结构的变化是利是弊尚难预测，但深入研究其变化的原因并以此来预测未来经济的发展，是具有重大意义的。在以往的文献中，大多数学者是从地区的角度来研究产业“空心化”问题，很少有从具体的子制造业角度来展开研究。深入研究制造业发展与资产价格和银行信贷之间的关联机理，既是具体实施“十二五”规划的现实需要，也是促进产业结构转型与升级，更是保证我国经济可持续发展的关键。本文采用了理论与实证相结合的分析方法,以产业“空心化”理论为出发点，结合我国目前产业发展的状况和美国与日本产业“空心化”的情况，探究了可能影响我国产业发展的因素，并在理论上分析了资产价格、银行信贷与产业“空心化”之间的关系。文章以2001至2011年制造业中各个子制造业的上市公司数据为样本，运用个体固定效应模型，证实了资产价格、银行信贷与产业“空心化”这三者之间确实存在着相关关系。本文得出的结论是：房地产价格的上升会阻碍实体经济发展，从而引发产业“空心化”；股票价格的上涨能推动公司自身的发展，会在一定程度上抑制产业“空心化”，但要严防股市扭曲所带来的“空心化”现象；外汇价格的上升，会促进产业的发展，防止产业“空心化”的蔓延；银行信贷规模扩大，能促进产业发展，但要谨防信贷市场扭曲导致产业“空心化”。最后，根据实证结果提出一些对我国产业发展有益的建议。本文系统、完善地揭示了我国银行信贷、资产价格与产业之间的作用机理与相互影响关系，有助于寻找可以促进产业结构调整的信贷政策，出台相关的楼市调控政策和股市规范政策，减慢人民币升值的速度，防止出现产业“空心化”的现象，从而实现经济结构的优化升级。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, the industrial structure of our country has changed dramatically. This change includes two aspects, one is the change between industry and industry, the other is the change of the internal structure of a certain industry. The first aspect is the manufacturing industry (also known as the second industry) with the first and third industries in the whole production. The change in the proportion of the proportion of the industry system; the second mainly refers to the change in the proportion of the output ratio of the nine manufacturing industries. The main performance is that the growth of the heavy chemical industry and the primary product sub industry is relatively fast, the development of other industries is slow or even atrophy. This change has its historical background and practical significance. It is not only in me. China's economy is in the rapid development stage, and it is our country's entry into the WTO. Facing the economic globalization, the various resource elements have changed under the limited conditions. In view of the future economic development of our country, it is difficult to predict the advantages and disadvantages of this industrial structure at present, but to study the reasons for the change in depth and to predict the future economy. The development is of great significance.
In the previous literature, most scholars study the "hollowing" problem from the point of view of the region, and seldom do research from the specific sub manufacturing point of view. The study of the relationship between the development of the manufacturing industry and the asset price and the bank credit is not only the actual need for the concrete implementation of the "12th Five-Year" plan, but also the promotion of the production. The transformation and upgrading of industrial structure is the key to ensure the sustainable development of China's economy.
Based on the theory of theory and empirical analysis, this paper takes the theory of "hollowing" as the starting point, combined with the current situation of China's industrial development and the "hollowing" situation in the United States and Japan, and explores the factors that may affect the development of China's industry, and theoretically analyzes asset prices, bank credit and industry "empty". The article takes the data of the listed companies of each manufacturing industry in the manufacturing industry from 2001 to 2011 as the sample, and uses the individual fixed effect model to confirm the asset price, and there is a correlation between the bank credit and the industrial "hollowing" between the three parties. The conclusion is that the rise of real estate prices will be blocked. Hindering the development of the real economy, thus causing the "hollow" of the industry, the rise of the stock price can promote the development of the company itself, to a certain extent, to restrain the "hollow" of the industry, but to prevent the "hollow" phenomenon brought about by the stock market distortion; the rise of the foreign exchange price will promote the development of the industry and prevent the "hollow" industry of the industry. The expansion of bank credit can promote the development of industry, but it should be beware of the "hollowing" of the credit market distortions. Finally, some suggestions on the development of China's industry are put forward according to the empirical results.
This paper systematically reveals the bank credit, the mechanism of the action between the asset price and the industry and the mutual influence, which will help to find the credit policy which can promote the adjustment of the industrial structure, introduce the relevant regulation policy of the property market and the stock market standard policy, slow down the rate of RMB appreciation and prevent the "hollow" of the industry. In order to realize the optimization and upgrading of the economic structure.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.4;F832.45;F121.3

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