商品房价格波动对银行资产稳定性影响研究

发布时间：2018-07-17 08:16

【摘要】：房地产行业与银行之间的联系非常密切。一方面，房地产行业的发展离不开银行的参与和支持，房地产的开发、销售等各个环节的资金需求规模都比较大，供给和需求都离不开金融支持；另一方面，银行资产的稳定性又受到房地产价格波动的影响。而在以间接金融为主的我国，房地产行业对银行信贷的依赖程度更高，导致我国银行系统的房地产信贷风险不断累积，一旦房地产市场震荡，银行资产将不可避免地受到冲击。作为资金密集型产业，房地产行业的价格波动不仅会影响到居民的生活水平以及房地产业相关行业的发展，也将威胁到正常的金融秩序和国民经济的持续健康发展。在这一背景下，本文分析了我国房地产行业的发展现状，总结了房地产市场存在的主要问题，梳理了商品房价格波动对银行资产稳定性的传导机制，归纳了商品房价格波动对银行资产稳定性的影响，并实证检验了商品房价格波动对银行资产稳定性的影响。本文对商品房价格波动与银行资产稳定性之间的联系进行了深入探讨，为理解我国银行系统面临的信贷风险，实现房地产市场的平稳发展提供了参考。首先，房地产市场价格波动通过信用、流动性和信息传递等机制影响银行系统的稳定性。房价的波动将影响借款者的信用状况，加剧银行面临的信用风险。在房地产贷款比重过大时，银行系统将承担大量流动性风险，资金结构搭配不当将导致银行在短期流动性需求缺乏弹性时面临较大的调整。作为公众获取房地产市场信息的重要来源，银行的房地产开发和抵押贷款等业务情况可以影响公众对于房地产市场的判断，放大市场情绪。其次，我国房地产市场投资规模不断扩大，销售价格快速上涨。近年来我国房地产投资总额实现了快速发展，房地产投资占全社会固定资产投资的比重约为18%，占GDP的比重约为10%，都远超过国际公认的警戒水平，出现了过热的迹象。房地产价格上涨过快的问题更加突出，引起了公众对房地产价格泡沫的担忧。我国房地产持续非正常地快速大幅度上涨导致部分地区房地产市场的投机氛围浓厚，高房价已经远远超过普通居民的购买能力；政府通过政策制定和土地供应控制等手段引导房地产市场发展，但是中央政府和地方政府的目标并非完全一致，地方政府为追求政绩有炒高地价推高房价的压力；此外，由于不同类型房产的利润空间差别较大，房地产开发企业一般都侧重于高价商品住宅的开发，导致我国房地产市场中低价位商品住宅房源过少，，市场结构不均衡。第三，根据基本价值法测算房地产价值偏离度，发现收入水平对房价的影响比较显著，长期来看需求因素发挥了比较关键的作用，而货币政策工具中利率调整的作用并不显现，贷款规模变化的影响更强。基于通胀率、贷款增长率、资本充足率和不良贷款率等构建构建银行稳定性指标，从我国银行稳定性的变动趋势可以发现，在加入WTO之后我国银行业稳定性得到了明显改善，但是在次贷危机之后出现了下滑的迹象。实证检验商品房价格波动对银行资产稳定性的影响，发现房价波动能够明显影响银行系统的稳定性，房价偏离基础价值产生的房价泡沫导致的道德风险与逆向选择问题导致了银行风险的累积。
[Abstract]:The relationship between the real estate industry and the bank is very close. On the one hand, the development of the real estate industry can not be separated from the participation and support of the bank. The capital demand of the real estate development and sales is large, the supply and demand can not be separated from the financial support; the other side, the stability of the bank assets is also subject to the real estate price. In China, with the main indirect finance, the real estate industry has a higher dependence on the bank credit, which leads to the continuous accumulation of the real estate credit risk in our banking system. Once the real estate market shocks, the bank assets will inevitably be hit. As a capital intensive industry, the price fluctuations in the real estate industry are not fluctuating. It will only affect the living standard of the residents and the development of related industries in the real estate industry, and will also threaten the normal financial order and the sustained and healthy development of the national economy.
Under this background, this paper analyzes the current situation of the development of the real estate industry in China, summarizes the main problems in the real estate market, combs the transmission mechanism of the commodity house price fluctuation to the stability of the bank assets, sums up the impact of the price fluctuation on the stability of the bank's assets, and empirically tests the fluctuation of the commodity house price to the bank. The relationship between the price fluctuation of the commodity house and the stability of the bank assets is deeply discussed in this paper, which provides a reference for understanding the credit risk faced by the bank system in China and realizing the steady development of the real estate market.
First, the price fluctuation of the real estate market affects the stability of the banking system through the mechanism of credit, liquidity and information transfer. The fluctuation of the house price will affect the credit status of the borrower and aggravate the credit risk that the bank faces. As an important source of public access to the real estate market information, the bank's real estate development and mortgage loans can affect the public's judgment on the real estate market and magnify the market sentiment.
Secondly, the investment scale of our real estate market is expanding and the sales price is rising rapidly. In recent years, the total investment of real estate in China has developed rapidly. The proportion of real estate investment in the fixed assets of the whole society is about 18%, and the proportion of GDP is about 10%, which is far more than the internationally recognized alert level, and the real estate has been overheated. Real estate is a sign of real estate. The problem of excessive price rise is more prominent, causing public concern about the bubble of real estate prices. The continuous and rapid rapid rise of real estate in China has led to a strong speculative atmosphere in the real estate market in some regions. High prices have far exceeded the purchasing power of ordinary residents; the government through policy making and land supply control. System and other means to guide the development of the real estate market, but the goals of the central government and the local government are not exactly the same. The local government has the pressure to push up the house prices for the pursuit of political achievements. In addition, the real estate development enterprises generally focus on the development of high price commodity housing because of the large difference in the profit space of different types of real estate. In China's real estate market, low price commercial housing is too few, and the market structure is not balanced.
Third, according to the calculation of the value deviation of real estate according to the basic value method, it is found that the income level has a significant impact on the house price. In the long run, the demand factor plays a more important role, while the effect of interest rate adjustment is not apparent in the monetary policy tool, the change of the loan scale is stronger. Based on the rate of inflation, the rate of loan growth and capital adequacy The bank stability index is constructed by the rate of rate and bad loan rate. From the trend of China's bank stability, we can find that the stability of China's banking industry has been obviously improved after the entry of WTO, but there is a sign of decline after the subprime crisis. The empirical test of the impact of commodity price fluctuation on the stability of banks' assets has been found. The volatility of house prices can significantly affect the stability of the banking system. The moral risk and adverse selection caused by house price bubbles resulting from the price deviation from the basic value lead to the accumulation of bank risks.
【学位授予单位】：湖南科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23;F832.33

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