兰州市商品住宅价格时空变化研究

发布时间：2018-07-24 15:25

【摘要】：随着房地产市场的不断发展以及住房制度改革的不断深化，兰州市住宅的商品化程度大幅提高，住房消费也在城市居民生活消费中占据了十分重要的位置，房价问题曰益成为关注焦点，研究兰州市商品住宅价格时空变化，具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文以兰州市中心四区1997年至2011年商品住宅价格样本数据为基础，应用Excel的统计分析功能描绘商品住宅价格散点图和柱形图，分析其总体变化趋势以及各个区商品住宅均价的时间变化特点，揭示时间变化规律；应用地理信息系统软件建立兰州市商品住宅价格空间数据库，对商品住宅楼盘信息进行数字化处理并制作专题地图，通过住宅价格空间分布图，分析商品住宅价格空间变化特点，揭示空间变化规律；通过对兰州市房地产价格影响因素的定性分析，确定了房地产价格的影响因素，并分析了各因素如何对房价变动起作用。通过分析得出了以下结论：（1)时间变化方面，1997年到2011年，兰州市中心四区商品住宅价格总体上不断上升，由1997年的2496元/m~2上涨到2011年的6104元/m~2，年平均增幅为14.19%。商品住宅价格略低于商品房价格，两者走势大体相同；各区商品住宅价格涨幅差异明显，城关区、七里河区、安宁区、西固区的涨幅分别为18.20%、16.26%、17.45%、11.03%。（2)空间变化方面，房价呈现带状圈层式分布规律，城关区、七里河区西站、安宁区沿河一带为中心向周边递减，中心区域9000元/m~2至15000元/m~2的价格区间，，递减至周边区域3000元/m~2到8000元/m~2的价格区间。安宁区沿南北滨河路一带房价明显高于该区其他区域。CBD对房价的影响明显，兰州的城市中心商务区城关区中心房价最高。交通干线对房价影响明显，交通发达程度直接决定了该区域的房价高低。城关区的九州开发区、东岗镇-红山根一带、西固区的大部分地区为房价低值区。（3)从影响因素来看，影响商品住宅价格的最主要因素为供给因素，需求因素，金融因素和区位因素，作为供给因素的房地产开发投资额、竣工房屋面积、竣工房屋价值等指标大幅增加，但由于供给结构不合理，有效供给不足，导致价格不断上升；作为需求因素的商品房销售面积、城市人均居住使用面积，居民收入等也持续上升，需求增加激化供需矛盾导致价格上涨；金融因素包括企业和个人从金融机构可获得的资金总和，这一因素同时作用于供给和需求，在房地产开发和消费环节商业贷款比例过大导致金融风险加大；区位因素对兰州市房价的影响比较大，主要影响因素为交通，距市中心的距离，环境等。
[Abstract]:With the continuous development of the real estate market and the deepening of housing system reform, the degree of housing commercialization in Lanzhou City has been greatly improved, and housing consumption has also occupied a very important position in urban residents' daily consumption. The problem of house price has become the focus of attention. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the temporal and spatial changes of commodity housing prices in Lanzhou. Based on the sample data of commodity housing prices from 1997 to 2011 in the central four districts of Lanzhou City, this paper applies the statistical analysis function of Excel to depict the scattered and columnar charts of commodity housing prices. This paper analyzes the general change trend and the time change characteristics of the average price of commercial housing in various districts, reveals the law of time change, and establishes the spatial database of the commodity house price in Lanzhou City by using GIS software. The information of commercial residential buildings is digitally processed and thematic maps are made. Through the spatial distribution map of housing prices, the characteristics of spatial changes of commodity housing prices are analyzed, and the laws of spatial changes are revealed. Based on the qualitative analysis of the influencing factors of real estate prices in Lanzhou, this paper determines the influencing factors of real estate prices, and analyzes how each factor plays an important role in the change of real estate prices. The conclusions are as follows: (1) from 1997 to 2011, the price of commercial housing in the four districts of Lanzhou city center has been rising, from 2496 yuan / m ~ (2) in 1997 to 6104 yuan / m ~ (2) in 2011, with an average annual increase of 14.19%. Commodity housing prices are slightly lower than commercial housing prices, and the two trends are roughly the same; there is a marked difference in the increase in commodity housing prices in various districts. The increase in Chengguan District, Qilihe District, Anning District and Xigu District is 18.20 and 16.26 and 17.45 respectively. (2) in terms of spatial changes, Housing prices show a zonal distribution pattern. Chengguan District, Qilihe District West Station, Anning District along the River area are the center of the decline toward the periphery, the central area of the price range of 9000 yuan / mt2 to 15000 yuan / mm2, is a price range of 9000 yuan / m ~ (2) to 15000 yuan / m ~ (2). A range of $3000 / m-2 to $8000 / mm2 decreasing to the surrounding area. The housing price along the north and south riverside road in Anning district is obviously higher than that in other areas. CBD has obvious influence on the house price, and the central housing price in the city central business district of Lanzhou is the highest. The traffic trunk has obvious influence on the housing price, and the degree of traffic development directly determines the housing price in this area. Jiuzhou Development Zone in Chengguan District, Donggang Township-Hongshanggen area, and most areas in Xigu District are low-value housing prices. (3) from the perspective of influencing factors, the most important factors affecting commodity housing prices are supply factors, and demand is due to factors. Financial factors and location factors, as a supply factor of real estate development investment, completed housing area, completed housing value and other indicators increased significantly, but due to unreasonable supply structure, insufficient effective supply, resulting in rising prices; As a demand factor of commercial housing sales area, urban per capita living area, residents' income and so on continue to rise, the increase of demand sharpens the contradiction between supply and demand, leading to price rise; Financial factors include the sum of funds that enterprises and individuals can obtain from financial institutions. This factor acts on both supply and demand. The excessive proportion of commercial loans in real estate development and consumption leads to increased financial risks. Location factors have great influence on house price in Lanzhou. The main influencing factors are traffic, distance from city center, environment and so on.
【学位授予单位】：西北师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23

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