基于利润空间模型的保障房政策建议——以北京市为例

发布时间：2018-07-30 08:19

【摘要】：本文从住房供需关系入手,以适宜房价收入比为约束,运用利润空间拟合供需函数,模拟房屋交易最优供给与价格,分析了北京市住房供应现状,并且核算了保障性住房受益群体的平均家庭总收入范围。以2013年的北京市保障房供应量,2011年的居住人口计算,若单依靠政府供应保障性住房,仅解决户籍内人口的住房问题就需要至少10年,若考虑暂住人口要全面解决住房问题需要时间至少翻一番,所以政府增加房屋的有效供给成为当下解决住房问题的关键。本文的建议是:北京市应大量供应保障性住房,暂时实施只租不售的住房政策,快速解决住房需求;在保障供给的前提下,为缓解资金压力,可逐步出售廉租房,出售价格可基于利润空间模型模拟,这样能有效防止出现大量"夹心层"。住房总供给量越高,廉租房的交易价格与商品房的交易价格差距越小,当二者相等时,政府无需再提供保障房,住房市场趋于稳定。
[Abstract]:This paper starts with the relationship between housing supply and demand, taking the ratio of house price and income as the constraint, applies profit space to fit the function of supply and demand, simulates the optimal supply and price of housing transaction, and analyzes the present situation of housing supply in Beijing. It also calculates the range of the average family income of the benefit groups of the indemnificatory housing. Based on the indemnificatory apartment supply in Beijing in 2013 and the resident population in 2011, it would take at least 10 years to solve the housing problem of the registered residents only if they rely on the government to supply affordable housing. It will take at least twice as long to consider the temporary population as a comprehensive solution to the housing problem, so increasing the effective supply of housing by the government is now the key to solving the housing problem. The suggestions of this paper are: Beijing should supply a large number of affordable housing, temporarily implement the housing policy of only renting and not selling, and quickly solve the housing demand; in order to ease the financial pressure, low-rent housing can be sold step by step under the premise of ensuring supply. The sale price can be simulated on the basis of profit space model, which can effectively prevent the occurrence of a large number of "sandwich layers". The higher the total housing supply, the smaller the difference between the transaction price of low-rent housing and that of commercial housing. When the two prices are equal, the government does not need to provide indemnificatory apartment, and the housing market tends to stabilize.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学研究院;
【分类号】：F299.23

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