预期因素对房价的作用机制研究——基于最优跨期模型的分析
发布时间：2018-08-15 13:19
【摘要】：本文基于最优跨期模型,探索了预期因素对我国住房价格的作用机制,并结合我国35个大中城市2000-2011年的数据,分析了预期和经济基本面对我国城市住房价格波动的影响。结果显示:从全国范围来看,预期因素对住房价格波动的解释力要强于经济基本面。从东部和中部地区来看,预期收入对住房价格波动的影响要略高于全国平均水平;预期房价对住房价格的影响要明显低于全国平均水平;利率对住房价格波动的影响不显著。
[Abstract]:Based on the optimal intertemporal model, this paper explores the mechanism of the effect of expected factors on housing prices in China, and analyzes the impact of expectation and economy on the fluctuation of housing prices in 35 large and medium-sized cities in China from 2000 to 2011. The results show that the expected factors explain the housing price volatility more strongly than the economic fundamentals. In the eastern and central regions, the impact of expected income on housing price fluctuations is slightly higher than the national average; the impact of expected house prices on housing prices is significantly lower than the national average; and the impact of interest rates on housing price fluctuations is not significant.
【作者单位】： 中南财经政法大学金融学院;
【基金】：中南财经政法大学研究生创新项目《房地产价格波动预期的成因分析》(项目编号:2012B0410)的资助
【分类号】：F293.35
[Abstract]:Based on the optimal intertemporal model, this paper explores the mechanism of the effect of expected factors on housing prices in China, and analyzes the impact of expectation and economy on the fluctuation of housing prices in 35 large and medium-sized cities in China from 2000 to 2011. The results show that the expected factors explain the housing price volatility more strongly than the economic fundamentals. In the eastern and central regions, the impact of expected income on housing price fluctuations is slightly higher than the national average; the impact of expected house prices on housing prices is significantly lower than the national average; and the impact of interest rates on housing price fluctuations is not significant.
【作者单位】： 中南财经政法大学金融学院;
【基金】：中南财经政法大学研究生创新项目《房地产价格波动预期的成因分析》(项目编号:2012B0410)的资助
【分类号】：F293.35
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