搜寻匹配视角下中国住房市场交易主体行为研究
发布时间：2018-09-07 17:19
【摘要】：住房市场交易主体行为是近年来住房经济学微观领域的前沿课题。自中国城镇住房制度改革以来，有关房价持续上涨、空置率高企、政府调控失灵等的争论此起彼伏。在此背景下，考虑住房市场交易摩擦性特点，从搜寻匹配视角探讨这些现象背后的交易主体行为，，将有助于从微观层面解析中国住房市场宏观表现的形成机制，为住房干预政策制定提供依据，因而兼具重要的理论意义和实践价值。 在国内外已有研究基础上，论文提出了住房市场交易主体行为研究的总体框架，分别从交易主体搜寻匹配行为的微观特征、搜寻匹配行为对住房市场交易结果的影响、以交易主体为对象的住房市场干预政策效果三方面展开。在该框架下，论文首先结合中国住房市场自身特点，对居间经纪人参与下的购房人和售房人搜寻匹配行为进行了理论建模，并采用数值模拟法对各交易主体行为的影响因素进行定量分析。其次，论文采用多主体仿真技术对中国住房市场交易主体及其行为函数加以设定，在NetLogo平台实现了住房市场价格、成交量与流动性的动态仿真，将微观静态分析拓展至宏观动态模拟。最后，论文探讨了限购政策下住房市场搜寻匹配行为的变化，刻画了限购政策下房价、房租等变量对需求冲击的响应。 论文研究结论包括：（1）微观层面上，以搜寻强度和搜寻持时表征的住房市场交易主体行为受到市场环境因素、单位搜寻成本和经纪佣金比例的影响程度各不相同。售房人行为对市场环境变化的反应不如购房人敏感，反映了售房人在市场环境改变时存在滞后效应。经纪佣金超过一定比例将对交易双方的收益分配造成严重危害，导致售房人退出交易。（2）宏观层面上，新房供应量的增加能够降低购房人的搜寻持时，并促使购房人向新房市场的转移。购房人搜寻强度的提高能够增加二手房成交量，但会抑制新房成交量，导致新房市场平均销售持时的增加。（3）在政策评价方面，限购政策导致房租在短时间内的大幅上涨，并通过租金收益率的传导作用最终推动房价的升高。以住房销售持时为标志的住房市场流动性指标表现出远超房价与成交量的超常波动，但最终将回复到原先均衡水平。 论文建议：（1）从根源上改善新房供给量和市场信息效率以加快交易主体搜寻匹配速度，放松土地市场对住房供给的约束。（2）尽快将强制性限购政策过渡到市场化住房干预手段，引导家庭进行合理租买选择。（3）采用房产税、租金管制等手段，提高空置房持有成本，并搭建公开房源信息的交易平台以改善需求方所处的信息不利地位。
[Abstract]:The subject behavior of housing market is a frontier subject in the micro field of housing economics in recent years. Since the reform of China's urban housing system, there has been a spate of arguments about rising house prices, high vacancy rates and government regulation failures. In this context, considering the frictional characteristics of the housing market, and from the point of view of search and match, it will be helpful to analyze the formation mechanism of the macro performance of China's housing market from the micro level. It provides the basis for the formulation of housing intervention policy, so it has both important theoretical significance and practical value. On the basis of the existing research at home and abroad, the paper puts forward the general framework of the research on the behavior of the transaction subject in the housing market, respectively from the microscopic characteristics of the transaction body search matching behavior, and the impact of the search matching behavior on the housing market transaction results. The effect of housing market intervention policy is carried out in three aspects. In this framework, the paper first combines the characteristics of China's housing market, and models the search and match behavior of buyers and sellers with the participation of brokers. Numerical simulation method is used to quantitatively analyze the factors affecting the behavior of each trading body. Secondly, the paper uses multi-agent simulation technology to set up the transaction subject and its behavior function in China's housing market, and realizes the dynamic simulation of housing market price, volume and liquidity on NetLogo platform. Micro static analysis is extended to macro dynamic simulation. Finally, the paper discusses the change of search matching behavior in the housing market under the limited purchase policy, and describes the response of the house price, rent and other variables to the demand impact under the limited purchase policy. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) at the micro level, the behavior of the transaction subjects in the housing market characterized by the search intensity and the search time is affected by the market environment factors, the degree of the unit search cost and the brokerage commission ratio are different. The behavior of the seller is less sensitive to the change of the market environment than that of the buyer, which reflects the lag effect of the seller when the market environment changes. If the brokerage commission exceeds a certain proportion, it will cause serious harm to the income distribution of both parties to the transaction, which will cause the seller to withdraw from the transaction. (2) on the macro level, the increase in the supply of new houses can reduce the time when buyers are searching for and holding a house. And to promote the purchase of new housing market transfer. The increase in the search intensity of home buyers can increase the turnover of second-hand houses, but it will restrain the turnover of new houses, resulting in an increase in the average sales time in the new house market. (3) in terms of policy evaluation, the purchase restriction policy has led to a sharp increase in rents in a short period of time. And through the rent rate of return on the final promotion of the conductive effect of the rise in house prices. The liquidity index of housing market, which is marked by the holding time of housing sales, is far more than the abnormal fluctuation of house price and transaction volume, but it will eventually return to the original equilibrium level. The suggestions are as follows: (1) to improve the supply of new houses and the efficiency of market information from the root, to speed up the search and match speed of transaction subjects, and to relax the constraints of land market on housing supply. (2) to transfer the mandatory purchase restriction policy to market-oriented housing intervention as soon as possible. (3) using the means of property tax and rent control to increase the cost of holding vacant house, and to set up a trading platform to open the information of the house to improve the disadvantage of the information on the demand side.
【学位授予单位】：清华大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23
[Abstract]:The subject behavior of housing market is a frontier subject in the micro field of housing economics in recent years. Since the reform of China's urban housing system, there has been a spate of arguments about rising house prices, high vacancy rates and government regulation failures. In this context, considering the frictional characteristics of the housing market, and from the point of view of search and match, it will be helpful to analyze the formation mechanism of the macro performance of China's housing market from the micro level. It provides the basis for the formulation of housing intervention policy, so it has both important theoretical significance and practical value. On the basis of the existing research at home and abroad, the paper puts forward the general framework of the research on the behavior of the transaction subject in the housing market, respectively from the microscopic characteristics of the transaction body search matching behavior, and the impact of the search matching behavior on the housing market transaction results. The effect of housing market intervention policy is carried out in three aspects. In this framework, the paper first combines the characteristics of China's housing market, and models the search and match behavior of buyers and sellers with the participation of brokers. Numerical simulation method is used to quantitatively analyze the factors affecting the behavior of each trading body. Secondly, the paper uses multi-agent simulation technology to set up the transaction subject and its behavior function in China's housing market, and realizes the dynamic simulation of housing market price, volume and liquidity on NetLogo platform. Micro static analysis is extended to macro dynamic simulation. Finally, the paper discusses the change of search matching behavior in the housing market under the limited purchase policy, and describes the response of the house price, rent and other variables to the demand impact under the limited purchase policy. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) at the micro level, the behavior of the transaction subjects in the housing market characterized by the search intensity and the search time is affected by the market environment factors, the degree of the unit search cost and the brokerage commission ratio are different. The behavior of the seller is less sensitive to the change of the market environment than that of the buyer, which reflects the lag effect of the seller when the market environment changes. If the brokerage commission exceeds a certain proportion, it will cause serious harm to the income distribution of both parties to the transaction, which will cause the seller to withdraw from the transaction. (2) on the macro level, the increase in the supply of new houses can reduce the time when buyers are searching for and holding a house. And to promote the purchase of new housing market transfer. The increase in the search intensity of home buyers can increase the turnover of second-hand houses, but it will restrain the turnover of new houses, resulting in an increase in the average sales time in the new house market. (3) in terms of policy evaluation, the purchase restriction policy has led to a sharp increase in rents in a short period of time. And through the rent rate of return on the final promotion of the conductive effect of the rise in house prices. The liquidity index of housing market, which is marked by the holding time of housing sales, is far more than the abnormal fluctuation of house price and transaction volume, but it will eventually return to the original equilibrium level. The suggestions are as follows: (1) to improve the supply of new houses and the efficiency of market information from the root, to speed up the search and match speed of transaction subjects, and to relax the constraints of land market on housing supply. (2) to transfer the mandatory purchase restriction policy to market-oriented housing intervention as soon as possible. (3) using the means of property tax and rent control to increase the cost of holding vacant house, and to set up a trading platform to open the information of the house to improve the disadvantage of the information on the demand side.
【学位授予单位】：清华大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23
【参考文献】
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1 郭晓e
本文编号：2228911
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