金融视角下的中国储蓄—投资转化率提升路径研究

发布时间：2018-09-09 11:38

【摘要】：资本形成对一国经济增长至关重要,而资本形成在很大程度上又是由储蓄的规模及储蓄向投资的转化决定的。在市场经济条件下,储蓄主体和投资主体往往是分离的,这就使得由金融机构和金融市场构成的金融转化路径成为储蓄—投资转化的主要渠道。考察世界各国经济金融发展历程可以发现,由于金融压抑、金融发展滞后等原因,金融路径的储蓄—投资转化经常遇到阻滞,使得宝贵的储蓄资源得不到有效配置,最终影响了经济发展。当前,我国经济进入"新常态",人口老龄化进程加快,储蓄率有可能持续下降,过去以高储蓄率支撑高投资率,进而带动经济增长的发展模式很难持续。因此,从金融视角研究储蓄—投资转化率提升路径具有重要的理论意义和实践价值。本文在综述国内外关于储蓄与投资关系以及储蓄—投资转化相关文献的基础上,采用规范分析与实证分析相结合的方法,重点对三个问题进行了研究。首先,使用西方主流经济学范式,在罗默提出的研究与开发内生增长模型基础上,放松"储蓄全部转化为投资"的强假设,引入储蓄—投资转化率变量,建立一个金融内生增长模型,对储蓄—投资转化率与经济增长率之间的关系进行研究,阐明金融发展影响经济增长的途径和机理。其次,运用面板协整理论,在Feldstein和Horioka提出的储蓄与投资相关性研究模型基础上进行扩展,建立固定影响变系数面板数据模型,对一国储蓄—投资转化率的评价方法进行研究。以中国为重点,对20国集团的19个成员国(欧盟除外)1980-2011年储蓄—投资转化率进行总量分析,对中国、巴西、日本、韩国、英国、美国等6个国家1946-2011年居民、企业、政府储蓄—投资转化率进行分部门分析,对中国31个省、自治区、直辖市1980-2012年储蓄—投资转化率进行分地区分析,从而对中国储蓄—投资转化率进行多维度评价,并分析查找存在的问题。第三,对一国储蓄—投资转化率的金融影响因素进行研究,在现有消费、储蓄、投资理论及实证研究基础上,总结归纳可能影响储蓄—投资转化率的金融因素,建立包含4个一级指标和25个二级指标的储蓄—投资转化率金融影响因素的分析框架,利用格兰杰因果检验方法,重点对中国1993-2010年储蓄—投资转化率与25项金融指标之间是否存在因果关系进行检验,揭示影响中国储蓄—投资转化率的金融因素及其影响方向和程度。研究结果表明:第一,经济增长率由储蓄—投资转化率、储蓄率及资本的边际产出共同决定,金融发展通过提高储蓄—投资转化率、影响储蓄率、增加资本的边际产出等三条途径影响经济增长;第二,中国储蓄—投资转化率无论从总量看,还是从分部门、分地区看,均处于中等水平,虽然高于欧美发达国家,但低于亚洲主要经济体,并且存在企业部门转化率低和地区间差异大等问题;第三,影响中国储蓄—投资转化率的金融因素共7项,其中6项具有正向影响,按照影响程度从大到小排序,依次是存贷比、存款、存贷款利率差、涉农贷款占比、股市波动、金融业工资总额;1项具有负向影响,为不良贷款率,影响程度最小。基于上述结论,本文从完善金融制度和增强金融市场主体活力两个角度提出政策建议。其中,在完善金融制度方面,建议提高商业银行存贷比、加快利率市场化改革、增强金融制度普惠性、加强资本市场制度建设;在增强金融市场主体活力方面,建议强化资本市场融资功能、推进商业银行转型发展、提高风险管理能力、改善人力资本管理。
[Abstract]:Capital formation is very important to a country's economic growth, and capital formation is largely determined by the scale of savings and the transformation from savings to investment. Under the condition of market economy, the main body of savings and investment is often separated, which makes the financial transformation path composed of financial institutions and financial markets become savings-investment. The main channel of capital transformation.By investigating the development of economy and finance in the world,we can find that due to the financial depression and the lag of financial development,the saving-investment transformation of the financial path often encounters obstacles,which makes the precious saving resources not be effectively allocated,and finally affects the economic development.At present,China's economy has entered the "new normal" and people are living in the new normal state. With the acceleration of population aging, the savings rate may continue to decline. In the past, it was difficult to sustain the development model of supporting high investment rate with high savings rate and then driving economic growth. On the basis of the literature on the relationship between capital and savings and investment, this paper adopts the method of combining normative analysis with empirical analysis to study three problems. First, using the western mainstream economic paradigm, on the basis of the endogenous growth model of research and development proposed by Romer, the strong hypothesis of "all savings into investment" is relaxed. By introducing the variable of savings-investment conversion rate, this paper establishes a financial endogenous growth model, studies the relationship between savings-investment conversion rate and economic growth rate, and clarifies the way and mechanism of financial development affecting economic growth. Secondly, using panel co-integration theory, this paper proposes a research model of savings-investment correlation proposed by Feldstein and Horioka. Based on the model, a fixed-impact variable-coefficient panel data model is established to study the evaluation method of a country's savings-investment conversion rate.With China as the focus, the total savings-investment conversion rate of 19 member countries of the Group of 20 (except the European Union) from 1980 to 2011 is analyzed. The savings-investment conversion rates of residents, enterprises and governments in China from 1946 to 2011 were analyzed in different sectors. The savings-investment conversion rates of 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government from 1980 to 2012 were analyzed in different regions. The savings-investment conversion rates in China were evaluated in multi-dimension and the existing problems were analyzed. Based on the existing consumption, savings and investment theories and empirical studies, this paper summarizes the financial factors that may affect the savings-investment conversion rate, establishes an analytical framework of the financial factors affecting the savings-investment conversion rate, which includes four first-level indicators and 25 second-level indicators, and uses Granger's method to analyze the financial factors affecting the savings-investment conversion rate. This paper examines the causality between the savings-investment conversion rate and 25 financial indicators in China from 1993 to 2010, reveals the financial factors affecting the savings-investment conversion rate in China and the direction and extent of its impact. The marginal output of capital determines that financial development affects economic growth by raising the savings-investment conversion rate, affecting the savings rate and increasing the marginal output of capital. Secondly, China's savings-investment conversion rate is at a moderate level, both in terms of total amount and in terms of sectors and regions, although higher than that of developed countries in Europe and the United States. Third, there are seven financial factors affecting China's savings-investment conversion rate, six of which have a positive impact, in order of the degree of impact from large to small, followed by the deposit-loan ratio, deposit-loan interest rate difference, the proportion of agricultural-related loans. Based on the above conclusions, this paper puts forward policy suggestions from two angles: perfecting the financial system and strengthening the vitality of the main body of the financial market. Among them, in the aspect of perfecting the financial system, it is suggested to increase the deposit-loan ratio of commercial banks and accelerate the reform of interest rate marketization. In order to enhance the vitality of the main body of the financial market, we should strengthen the financing function of the capital market, promote the transformation and development of commercial banks, improve the risk management ability and improve the human capital management.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F832.22;F832.48

【参考文献】