农业政策对农业板块价格波动影响研究

发布时间：2018-09-10 06:42

【摘要】：中国股票市场的剧烈波动以及政策预期的不确定性无疑加大了国家相关经济管理部门调控股票市场的难度，降低了国家利用经济手段调节证券市场的能力和效率。因此，系统深入地研究政府调控政策变化对中国股票市场的影响对于加强中国股票市场的管理和控制、改善政府对股票市场的调控和监管效率，进而保障中国股票市场健康、稳定、持续发展具有非常重要的理论和现实意义。本文通过对相关文献和理论的研究，采用描述性统计和事件研究法对2012、2013年农业政策发布以后短期内相关股票价格的变动进行了实证研究。研究表明：政策发布后，相关股票价格显著上涨，说明短期内农业政策的发布对农业股股票价格波动都有积极影响，都能不同程度的影响相关股票价格。但是两次事件的影响效果不一，影响幅度不断减小，尤其是深证农业指数相差较大，这说明市场可能对于农业政策的发布具有了一定的免疫性，农业政策的发布不能再像去年那样强烈刺激农业股票在短期内的价格增长。最后，，在前文理论研究和实证研究的基础上，指出相关股票价格在农业政策发布以后出现该现象的主要原因:市场有效性不足、政策制定不够谨慎、尚未建立适当的预期管理和舆论管理机制。据此提出以下政策建议：逐步提高股票市场有效性；完善政策决策、披露与执行程序；引导投资者理性投资；加大对农业上市公司的支持力度。
[Abstract]:The sharp fluctuation of China's stock market and the uncertainty of policy expectations undoubtedly increase the difficulty of regulating the stock market by the relevant economic management departments of the country, and reduce the ability and efficiency of the state to regulate the stock market by economic means. Therefore, a systematic and in-depth study of the impact of changes in government regulation and control policies on China's stock market will strengthen the management and control of China's stock market, improve the efficiency of government regulation and supervision of the stock market, and thus ensure the health of China's stock market. Stable, sustainable development has very important theoretical and practical significance. Based on the research of relevant literature and theory, this paper makes an empirical study on the changes of stock prices in the short term after the agricultural policy was issued in 2012 and 2013 by using descriptive statistics and event research methods. The results show that the relative stock price increases significantly after the policy is issued, which indicates that the agricultural policy has a positive effect on the volatility of agricultural stock price in the short term, and can affect the related stock price to varying degrees. However, the effects of the two events are different, and the impact range is constantly decreasing, especially the difference in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's agricultural index, which indicates that the market may have a certain degree of immunity to the promulgation of agricultural policies. The announcement of agricultural policy can no longer strongly stimulate short-term price growth in agricultural stocks as it did last year. Finally, on the basis of the previous theoretical and empirical studies, the paper points out the main reasons for the phenomenon after the agricultural policy is issued: insufficient market effectiveness, inadequate policy making, There has not been a proper mechanism for anticipatory management and public opinion management. Based on this, the author puts forward the following policy suggestions: gradually improving the effectiveness of the stock market; perfecting policy decisions, disclosure and execution procedures; guiding investors to invest rationally; and increasing the support for agricultural listed companies.
【学位授予单位】：山东财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F320;F832.51;F224

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