南京市别墅价格影响因素及其空间作用差异研究

发布时间：2018-10-14 10:47

【摘要】：住宅价格一直是近年来全社会普遍关注的重要问题,国家不断出台各项措施进行调控,但收效并不明显。居民改善性住宅需求和投资性住宅需求日渐旺盛,阻碍了刚性需求的释放,导致住宅市场供需结构发生变化,引发市场价格整体波动。而别墅在国家用地审批的严格控制下,逐步成为稀缺性存量房产资源,不仅具有改善居住条件的作用,也增强了消化住宅投资需求的能力。别墅价格的波动以及各项价格影响因素的变化,在一定程度上左右着居民投资性及改善性住宅需求,进而对刚性需求市场产生间接作用,同时,不同影响因素对价格的空间作用差异也会对别墅楼盘的分布和价格的空间分布规律产生影响。本文以区位理论、供需理论、消费者理论和住宅价格影响因素理论为基础,在对南京市别墅市场现状进行供给和需求两方面的分析的基础上,利用特征价格模型对真实市场数据进行回归拟合,筛选出对南京市别墅价格影响最明显的主要影响因素,进而采用空间误差模型和地理加权回归模型将不同影响因素对别墅价格的空间作用系数纳入拟合分析,以得到南京市别墅价格影响因素的作用程度及空间影响规律。研究结果表明,第一,别墅用地的停止审批导致存量别墅用地稀缺性的增强,南京市别墅价格稳步增长,别墅供给规模不断增加,且以中小户型为主,表现出显著的区域分布差异性；第二,制约南京市别墅价格的主要因素是建筑特征因素和区位特征因素。具体表现为,物业费、距CBD距离和交通条件对别墅价格的影响较显著,容积率和绿化率相对较弱。其中,距CBD距离和容积率对价格的影响为负向,其余指标为正向。第三,空间作用方面,物业费对价格的空间作用差异表现为“西南-东北”方向递变趋势,距CBD距离指标的空间作用差异表现为“东-西”递变趋势,而绿化率对别墅价格的正向作用以“主城区”为中心分别向南、向北递增,容积率对别墅价格的负向作用以“百家湖”地区为中心向四周递减。鉴于以上研究结论,本文提出相应的政策建议。首先,完善别墅相关政策规定,适当引导新型别墅需求,充分利用容积率指标和规划限制指标,对别墅的开发建设进行调控,合理配置住宅需求；其次,在集约节约用地的前提下规范物业市场,保证物业条件与物业费水平相互协调；此外,推进城市配套建设总体规划,扩大公共交通网络覆盖面,加强生态环境建设,为住宅市场的稳步发展提供良好的设施保障。
[Abstract]:Housing price has been an important issue that the whole society has paid close attention to in recent years. The government has continuously introduced various measures to regulate and control housing prices, but the results are not obvious. Residents' demand for improved housing and investment housing is becoming more and more vigorous, which hinders the release of rigid demand, which leads to the change of supply and demand structure of housing market and the fluctuation of market price as a whole. Under the strict control of national land approval, villa has gradually become a rare stock of real estate resources, which not only improves the living conditions, but also enhances the ability of digesting the housing investment demand. The fluctuation of villa price and the change of all kinds of price influence factors, to a certain extent, affect the residential demand of investment and improvement, and then produce indirect effect on the rigid demand market, at the same time, Different influence factors on the spatial effect of price will also have an impact on the distribution of villa real estate and the law of spatial distribution of price. Based on location theory, supply and demand theory, consumer theory and housing price influencing factor theory, this paper analyzes the supply and demand of Nanjing villa market. By using the characteristic price model to regression fit the real market data, the main factors that have the most obvious influence on the villa price in Nanjing are screened out. Then spatial error model and geographical weighted regression model are used to analyze the spatial effect coefficient of different influencing factors on villa price in order to get the degree of action and the law of spatial influence of the influencing factors of villa price in Nanjing. The results show that, first, the suspension of the examination and approval of villa land leads to an increase in the scarcity of existing villa land, the price of villa in Nanjing has steadily increased, and the supply scale of villas has been increasing, and the main type of villas is small and medium-sized units. The main factors restricting the price of villa in Nanjing are architectural characteristics and location characteristics. The property cost, distance from CBD and traffic conditions have a significant effect on the villa price, while the volume ratio and green rate are relatively weak. The effect of distance from CBD and volume ratio on price is negative, and the other indexes are positive. Thirdly, the spatial effect of property fee on price shows the trend of "southwest to northeast" direction, and the spatial effect difference of distance from CBD index to "east to west" trend, the spatial effect difference of property fee on price is the trend of "southwest-northeast" direction, and the spatial effect difference of distance from CBD index is "east-west" trend. The positive effect of green rate on villa price is to the south and north of the main urban area, and the negative effect of the volume ratio to the villa price is decreasing in the area of "Baijia Lake". In view of the above conclusions, this paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations. First of all, improve the relevant policy provisions of villas, properly guide the demand for new villas, make full use of the volume ratio index and planning restriction index, control the development and construction of villas, and rationally allocate the housing demand; secondly, Standardizing the property market under the premise of intensive land conservation to ensure that property conditions are in harmony with the level of property charges; in addition, to promote the overall planning of urban supporting construction, to expand the coverage of public transport networks, and to strengthen the construction of the ecological environment, For the steady development of the housing market to provide good facilities protection.
【学位授予单位】：南京农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23

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