我国短期跨境资本流动的规模测算和影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-11-13 10:05

【摘要】：20世纪80年代以后，发达国家首先开始放松了对国际资本流动的限制，20世纪90年代以后，在发达国家进一步推动国际资本自由化流动的同时，发展中国家也开始逐渐放松对国际资本流动的限制。以高流动性、高投机性和高度虚拟化为主要特征的短期跨境资本的流动，对资本流入国的利率、汇率和货币政策等产生重大的影响。近年来越来越多的国际资本进入中国市场，尤其是短期跨境资本在金融危机时为了寻求避险和增值。加上几年来人民币升值预期的不断增强，，来自世界各地的短期跨境资本开始频繁进出我国关境。短期跨境资本的大量流入会造成我国市场中流动性过剩，进一步增加人民币升值压力。短期跨境资本的大量流出则会对中国国际储备形成冲击，甚至会危及经济基本面。由于我国目前尚未放开资本项目的管制，大量的短期跨境资本隐藏于经常项目之下进出我国关境。因此，有必要对我国短期跨境资本流动的影响因素进行探索，并针对相应的主要因素提出相关的监管建议。本文首先概述了短期跨境资本的定义与分类，从国际收支平衡表中反映的显性渠道和表外的隐性渠道两方面详细描述了进出我国关境的短期跨境资本的流动途径。接着对既往的短期跨境资本尤其是隐蔽的短期跨境资本流动的规模测算方法进行总结，选择适合本文的方法对2003年第3季度至2012年第3季度我国短期跨境资本的净流入额进行测算。然后在前文基础上讨论我国短期跨境资本流动的驱动因素，并运用VAR模型通过EViews5.0软件进行ADF平稳性检验、Granger因果检验和脉冲响应分析，对我国短期跨境资本流动的影响因素进行实证检验。最后从强化短期跨境资本流动监测、建立金融风险指标评估体系和短期跨境资本流动的管理三方面提出应对措施和建议。
[Abstract]:After the 1980s, the developed countries first began to relax the restrictions on international capital flows. After the 1990s, while the developed countries further promoted the flow of international capital liberalization, Developing countries are also easing restrictions on international capital flows. Short-term cross-border capital flows, characterized by high liquidity, high speculation and high virtualization, have a significant impact on the interest rates, exchange rates and monetary policies of capital inflow countries. In recent years, more and more international capital has entered the Chinese market, especially short-term cross-border capital in order to seek risk avoidance and appreciation during the financial crisis. Coupled with rising expectations of yuan appreciation over the past few years, short-term cross-border capital from around the world has begun to move in and out of China frequently. The large inflow of short-term cross-border capital will cause excess liquidity in the Chinese market and further increase the pressure of RMB appreciation. A large outflow of short-term cross-border capital could have an impact on China's international reserves and even jeopardize economic fundamentals. Since China has not yet liberalized the control of capital account, a large amount of short-term cross-border capital is hidden in and out of China under the current account. Therefore, it is necessary to explore the influencing factors of short-term cross-border capital flows in China, and to put forward relevant regulatory suggestions for the corresponding main factors. This paper first summarizes the definition and classification of short-term cross-border capital and describes in detail the flow of short-term cross-border capital into and out of China from two aspects: the explicit channel reflected in the balance of payments account and the hidden channel outside the balance of payments account. Then it summarizes the previous methods of measuring the scale of short-term cross-border capital flows, especially the hidden short-term cross-border capital flows. This paper chooses the suitable method to measure the net inflow of short-term cross-border capital from the third quarter of 2003 to the third quarter of 2012. Then the driving factors of short-term cross-border capital flows in China are discussed on the basis of the above, and the ADF stationary test, Granger causality test and impulse response analysis are carried out by using VAR model through EViews5.0 software. This paper empirically tests the influencing factors of short-term cross-border capital flows in China. Finally, the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward from three aspects: strengthening the monitoring of short-term cross-border capital flows, establishing the financial risk index evaluation system and managing short-term cross-border capital flows.
【学位授予单位】：苏州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.5;F831.7

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