西部地区金融发展与城市化互动关系研究

发布时间：2019-06-15 05:38

【摘要】：2011年我国城市化率首次超过50%，非农人口超过农业人口。然而目前中国的城市化率只相当于韩国的1970年水平，日本的1950年水平，美国的1920年水平，城市化发展空间依然很大。党的十八大报告明确指出，要坚持走中国特色城市化的道路，将城市化视作全面建成小康社会的载体之一和经济发展方式转变的重点之一。西部地区城市化水平显著低于东、中部地区，，因此在国家政策大背景下，西部地区城市化有很大的发展空间。现代金融体系诞生于生产力发展过程中，大大提高了社会整体运行效率。金融与城市化建设密切相关，城市基础设施、企业发展和转型的各项服务、城市运行的配套功能等目标的实现，都需要借助金融的力量。然而城市化进程中资金量大、周期长，对金融体系提出了新挑战。从这个角度出发，本文从理论和实证两个部分对西部地区金融发展和城市化之间的关系进行研究。理论部分，本文首先回顾了金融发展理论、城市化理论，以及对国内外金融发展与城市化关系研究的文献进行总结，明确了本文的研究内容、目的。实证部分，本文先建立了西部地区金融发展的指标体系，西部地区城市化的指标体系；利用因子分析法得出西部地区金融发展现状，进行现状分析；利用因子分析法得出了西部地区城市化现状，进行现状分析；对两个变量之间进行相关性分析；得出了金融发展和城市化之间的作用机理，提出金融发展和城市化之间的作用理论：金融对产业结构升级的影响、金融发展对区域经济增长的影响；城市化中的产业对金融发展的推动、城市化的人口集聚对金融发展的推动、城市化的城市发展对金融发展的推动；从省域层面进行基于VAR模型的Granger因果关系检验，并采用脉冲响应函数来验证这种因果关系，以实证结果来呼应本文的理论研究。通过研究发现：有关金融发展水平的因子分析表明，西部地区金融发展具有明显的区位效应，存在显著的正的空间自相关性，存在溢出效应。有关城市化水平的因子分析表明，西部地区城市化具有明显的区位效应，存在显著的正的空间自相关性，存在溢出效应。中国西部地区金融发展和城市化互为彼此的Granger原因，二者存在着互动关系；其中，金融发展对城市化的促进作用要大于城市化对金融发展的促进作用。
[Abstract]:In 2011, the urbanization rate of China exceeded 50% for the first time, and the non-agricultural population exceeded the agricultural population for the first time. However, at present, the urbanization rate in China is only equivalent to the 1970 level in South Korea, the 1950 level in Japan and the 1920 level in the United States, and there is still a lot of room for urbanization. The report of the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) clearly points out that it is necessary to adhere to the road of urbanization with Chinese characteristics and regard urbanization as one of the carriers of building a well-off society in an all-round way and one of the key points of the transformation of the mode of economic development. The urbanization level in the western region is significantly lower than that in the east and central regions, so under the background of national policy, the urbanization in the western region has a lot of room for development. The modern financial system was born in the process of the development of productive forces, which greatly improved the overall operation efficiency of society. Finance is closely related to urbanization construction. The realization of urban infrastructure, various services for enterprise development and transformation, and supporting functions of urban operation all need the power of finance. However, in the process of urbanization, the amount of capital is large and the cycle is long, which poses a new challenge to the financial system. From this point of view, this paper studies the relationship between financial development and urbanization in the western region from both theoretical and empirical aspects. In the theoretical part, this paper first reviews the theory of financial development, the theory of urbanization, and summarizes the literature on the relationship between financial development and urbanization at home and abroad, and clarifies the research content and purpose of this paper. In the empirical part, this paper first establishes the index system of financial development in the western region, the index system of urbanization in the western region, obtains the present situation of the financial development in the western region by using the factor analysis method, analyzes the present situation of the urbanization in the western region by using the factor analysis method, and analyzes the correlation between the two variables. This paper obtains the mechanism between financial development and urbanization, and puts forward the theory of the role between financial development and urbanization: the influence of finance on the upgrading of industrial structure, the influence of financial development on regional economic growth, the promotion of industry in urbanization on financial development, the promotion of urbanization population agglomeration on financial development, and the promotion of urbanized urban development on financial development. The Granger causality test based on VAR model is carried out from the provincial level, and the impulse response function is used to verify the causality, and the empirical results echo the theoretical research in this paper. Through the study, it is found that the factor analysis of the level of financial development shows that the financial development in the western region has obvious location effect, there is significant positive spatial autocorrelation, and there is spillover effect. The factor analysis of urbanization level shows that urbanization in western China has obvious location effect, positive spatial autocorrelation and spillover effect. The financial development and urbanization in western China are each other's Granger reasons, and there is an interactive relationship between them, among which, the promoting effect of financial development on urbanization is greater than that of urbanization on financial development.
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.7;F299.27

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