大气污染治理对经济影响的CGE模型分析

发布时间：2018-01-10 05:25

  本文关键词：大气污染治理对经济影响的CGE模型分析　出处：《对外经济贸易大学》2017年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

  更多相关文章： 雾霾治理 CGE模型 大气污染 情景模拟 中国经济

【摘要】：改革开放30多年以来,中国在政治、经济、教育、体育、军事等众多方面取得了举世瞩目的成就。然而,在环境方面尤其是大气环境方面的问题却日益突出。在此背景下,本文建立了一套动态多区域一般均衡模型,用以模拟分析各类大气污染治理措施的治理效果及可能带来的经济后果。在模型方面,本文改变了传统文献使用计量经济模型分析问题的思路,探索性地建立了多区域动态CGE模型。在现有研究成果中,使用该方法分析治理雾霾对经济影响的文献并不多见。在模型的结构设计方面,本文构造了生产、消费、进出口、区域间调入调出、投资、污染物排放等多个模块。此外,为了研究减排政策对当期及以后各期的影响,分析持续性减排政策的后果,本文以递归方式搭建了动态模块,将模拟时期设定为2030年。在数据方面,本文采用最新可获得的《2010年中国30省区市区域间投入产出表》。在地理范围上,本文将中国划分为长三角、东北、环京津冀、京津冀、南部、西北、西南、中部和珠三角九个地区。在情景设置方面,本文模拟了治理大气污染常用的三类政策手段:污染税、排放权交易机制和科技创新。在第四章,本文梳理了通过污染税手段治理环境的经济学理论,从庇古税、福利经济学等角度阐明了污染税在治理环境时的经济学理论。本文梳理了大量研究文献,总结了他们在模拟硫税、碳税时针对不同国家执行税率的分析经验,设定了4套适合中国当前经济发展状况的污染税政策。分别为单一低税率情景(A01)、单一高税率情景(A02)、时期差异化情景(A03)和地区差异化情景(A04)。模拟结果显示:(1)实施污染税政策能够显著地降低PM2.5年均浓度。(2)实施二氧化硫税政策会增加名义GDP,但导致实际GDP下降。(3)在政策执行或变动的当年,税收政策对经济的冲击最大,而后期变化幅度较小。(4)在某些地区执行硫税政策而其他地区不执行时,执行政策的地区污染排量降低,但不执行政策的地区排量增加,即存在污染泄露问题。在第五章,本文根据对SO2排放量约束的不同程度设计了三种排放权交易情景,由宽松到严格依次B01、B02和B03情景。模拟结果表明:(1)实施排放权交易机制对SO2排放量进行管制,会导致中国实际GDP相对于基准情景下降、GDP平减指数上升、名义GDP上升。(2)在只有部分地区实行排放权交易制度的B01情景下,4个空气污染严重的地区大气质量明显好转,然而未实施政策的5个地区的PM2.5年均浓度反而高于基准情景。(3)SO2排放权交易价格在污染严重的地区明显高于轻污染地区,而且随着时间的推移其价格越来越高。(4)实施二氧化硫排放权交易机制会导致各类商品的生产成本及销售价格普遍上涨。在第六章,本文针对提高能源利用效率(D01)和能源清洁技术进步(D02)两类科技进行了模拟情景设置,同时增加设置了科技进步与征收二氧化硫税的复合情景(D03和D04)。模拟结果显示:(1)提高能源利用效率能够对宏观经济和就业带来一定的正面效应,同时有助于降低大气中的污染物浓度。(2)在能效提高与硫税复合的情景中,能效提高可以显著地缓解甚至彻底抵消了征收污染税对经济带来的负面影响,同时大气污染物排放量略有降低,就业量小幅上升。(3)大力发展能源清洁技术能够缓解当前严重的雾霾问题;与硫税政策同时执行时,还有助于降低实际GDP的受损程度。(4)如果清洁技术足够发达,那么硫税对实体经济的抑制作用将大大降低,其经济总量与基准情景下的经济总量大体相当。在第七章,本文梳理了日本、美国、英国等5个发达国家曾经遭受的大气污染问题,归纳总结了它们治理大气污染的成功经验。大气污染问题几乎是每个国家从落后走向发达的“必经阶段”,而且各国大气污染最严重的时期大多处于它们的工业化、城市化进程中。然而,它们通过各自适合自身的措施成功地治愈了大气污染问题。这些措施归纳起来可分为政府立法、科技创新、调整能源消费结构和市场化行为等。根据本文的模拟结果及发达国家治理污染的成功经验,本文提出若干政策建议,以供政策制定者参考。首先,治理大气污染必须从顶层设计入手进行统筹规划。其次,中国必须加快环境保护类的法治建设,为治理大气污染提供法律保障。再次,政府应该完善公民参与机制,充分调动起公民参与治理大气污染的积极性。最后,提高科学技术水平是治理大气污染的最根本、最有效的手段之一。此外,优化能源消费结构,降低煤炭在一次能源消费中的比重是解决当前大气污染最直接的途径。值得一提的是,充分利用市场机制治理大气污染是行政强制减排的有力补充,也能够激励企业进行技术革新,加快科技创新的步伐,还能够引导能源消费结构朝着更合理的方向调整。
[Abstract]:Since 30 years of reform and opening up, Chinese in politics, economy, education, sports, military and other aspects have made remarkable achievements. However, in terms of the environment especially the atmospheric environmental problems have become increasingly prominent. Under this background, this paper established a dynamic multi region general equilibrium model for simulation and analysis of governance all kinds of measures of air pollution control effect and the possible economic consequences. In the model, this paper changes the traditional literature uses econometric model to analyze the problems, explore the establishment of multi area dynamic CGE model. In the current research, analysis of governance haze on the economic impact of the literature using this method is rare in terms of structure design model, this paper constructs the production, consumption, import and export, regional transferred to transfer, investment, pollutant emissions and other modules. In addition, for the study of emission reduction policies Effect of current and future periods, sustainability analysis of emission reduction policy consequences, this paper recursively constructed dynamic module, the simulation period is set for 2030. In terms of data, this paper uses the regional China 30 provinces and municipalities in the latest available <2010 input output table. In the scope of science, this paper will China divided into the Yangtze River Delta, northeast ring, Beijing Tianjin Hebei, Beijing Tianjin Hebei, South, northwest, southwest, central and the Pearl River Delta region. The nine set in the scene, this paper simulates the governance of the three policy tools: air pollution pollution tax, emissions trading mechanism and technological innovation. In the fourth chapter, this paper reviews by means of environmental pollution tax economics theory, from the perspective of Pigou tax, welfare economics expounds pollution tax economics theory in the governance environment. This paper reviews many literatures, summarizes them in the simulation of sulfur tax, carbon tax Analysis of the experience of different countries in the implementation of tax clockwise, setting up 4 sets for the current economic development situation of the Chinese pollution tax policy. Low tax rates were for a single scenario (A01), a single high rate scenario (A02), time difference scenarios (A03) scenarios and area difference (A04). The simulation results show that: (1) the implementation of pollution tax policy can significantly reduce the annual concentration of PM2.5. (2) the implementation of sulfur dioxide tax policy will increase the nominal GDP, but led to the decline in real GDP. (3) or when the change in policy implementation, the impact of tax policy on the economy's largest, and later changed little. (4) the sulfur tax policy implementation in some areas, while other areas do not perform well when the implementation of the policy of regional pollution emissions decreased, but not the implementation of the policy area increase displacement, there is pollution leakage problem. In the fifth chapter, this paper designed three kinds of emissions according to different degrees of SO2 emission constraint Trading scenarios, from loose to strict order of B01, B02 and B03. The simulation results show that: (1) the implementation of emissions trading mechanism to control SO2 emissions, will lead to the actual GDP China decreased compared with the baseline scenario, the GDP deflator rose, nominal GDP rose. (2) the implementation of emissions trading system in the only part of the B01 scenario, 4 air pollution serious regional air quality improved significantly, the annual concentration of 5 regions but not the implementation of the policy of PM2.5 is higher than that of the baseline scenario. (3) SO2 emissions trading price in polluted areas was higher than that of the light pollution area, and with the passage of time, the price is more and more more high. (4) the implementation of sulfur dioxide emissions trading mechanism will lead to a general increase in all kinds of goods in the production cost and the selling price. In the sixth chapter, aiming at improving energy efficiency and clean energy (D01) technology (D02) Two kinds of technology to simulate scene setting, while increasing the composite scene setting and the progress of science and technology of sulfur dioxide tax (D03 and D04). The simulation results show that: (1) improve the efficiency of energy use can have a positive effect on the macro economy and employment, while helping to reduce the concentration of pollutants in the atmosphere (2. In the context of improving energy efficiency) and sulfur tax composite, energy efficiency can significantly alleviate or even completely offset the negative impact of pollution tax on the economy, while the emissions of air pollutants decreased slightly, the volume of employment slightly rise. (3) vigorously develop clean energy technology can alleviate the current severe haze problem; at the same time the implementation of with the sulfur tax policy, also help to reduce the damage degree of the actual GDP. (4) if the cleaning technology developed enough, then the inhibitory effects of sulfur tax on the real economy will be greatly reduced, and the base of its economy The total economic situation roughly. In the seventh chapter, this paper analyzes the United States, Japan, Britain and other air pollution problems in 5 developed countries have suffered, summarizes their successful experience of air pollution. The air pollution problem is almost every country from behind to developed "stage", and the serious air pollution in most countries during their industrialization, the city in the process. However, through their respective suitable measures to successfully cure the problem of air pollution. These measures can be sum up the legislation for the government, science and technology innovation, the adjustment of energy consumption structure and market behavior. According to the successful experience of the simulation results in this paper and the developed countries to control pollution, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions, for policy makers. First of all, air pollution must be from the top-level design of the system Planning. Secondly, we must accelerate the construction of the rule of law China environmental protection, provide legal protection for air pollution. Thirdly, the government should perfect the citizen participation mechanism, and fully mobilize the enthusiasm of the citizens to participate in air pollution control. Finally, improve the level of science and technology is the fundamental treatment of air pollution, one of the most effective means. In addition, the optimization of energy consumption structure, reduce the coal in the proportion of primary energy consumption is the most direct way to solve the current atmospheric pollution. It is worth mentioning that the full use of the market mechanism of air pollution governance is a powerful complement to administrative mandatory emission reduction, can also encourage enterprises to carry out technological innovation, accelerate the pace of technological innovation, but also to guide the energy consumption structure towards a more reasonable direction adjustment.

【学位授予单位】：对外经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X51;F127
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本文编号：1404038