制度环境与金融开放对国际资本流动“突然停止”的影响

发布时间：2018-03-17 19:26

本文选题：制度环境　切入点：金融开放　出处：《暨南大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：国际资本流动“突然停止”是指一个国家的资本流入在短期内急剧下降并对经济造成重创的现象。突然停止的爆发会造成金融市场的动荡与恐慌,导致资产价格下跌、货币贬值、产出下降、实体经济萧条等一系列后果。本文的研究对有关制度环境的建设与金融开放政策的设计具有一定的导向性作用,研究结论有助于为国家制定相关政策以及决定政策落实的时机顺序提供相应理论依据与实证支持。本文以1995-2012年全球106个国家作为研究对象,通过逻辑回归与泊松回归模型,探讨以全球治理指标、经济自由化指数、Hofstede文化六维度为代表的政治、经济、文化三方面的制度环境与金融开放对国际资本流动突然停止发生与否以及发生频率的影响。实证分析发现:(1)政治制度环境的改善能够在当期降低突然停止发生的可能性。(2)经济自由化与突然停止当期发生与否间呈倒U型关系,而在引入政治制度环境与经济自由化的交互项之后,交互项与突然停止间呈显著的负相关关系。(3)文化制度环境中,仅不确定性回避文化与突然停止的发生频率间存在正向变动关系。(4)金融开放可以降低样本期间突然停止发生的频率,但与当期突然停止发生的概率间不存在显著的线性或者曲线关系。同时,随着政治制度环境由极差逐渐改善,实施金融开放对突然停止当期发生与否存在先增后降的影响。
[Abstract]:"sudden cessation" of international capital flows is a phenomenon in which capital inflows to a country fall sharply in the short term and cause severe economic damage. A sudden halt in capital flows can cause turmoil and panic in financial markets and lead to a fall in asset prices. A series of consequences, such as devaluation of currency, decline of output, depression of real economy, etc., the research in this paper has certain guiding effect on the construction of institutional environment and the design of financial opening policy. The conclusions are helpful to provide theoretical basis and empirical support for countries to formulate relevant policies and decide the timing sequence of policy implementation. This paper takes 106 countries in the world from 1995 to 2012 as the research object, through logical regression and Poisson regression model. This paper discusses politics and economy represented by global governance index, economic liberalization index and Hofstede culture. The impact of the three aspects of cultural institutional environment and financial opening on the sudden stoppage of international capital flows and the frequency of occurrence. The empirical analysis shows that the improvement of the political institutional environment can reduce the sudden stoppage in the current period. Possibility 2) the relationship between economic liberalization and sudden cessation is inversely U-shaped. After introducing the interaction between political institutional environment and economic liberalization, there is a significant negative correlation between the interaction item and sudden cessation. There is only a positive change relationship between the culture of uncertainty avoidance and the frequency of sudden cessation. (4) Financial openness can reduce the frequency of sudden stoppage during the sample period. However, there is no significant linear or curvilinear relationship between the probability of sudden stoppage in the current period. At the same time, with the gradual improvement of the political system environment, the effect of financial opening on the occurrence or not of sudden stoppage in the current period is increased first and then decreased.
【学位授予单位】：暨南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F831.6

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