稳增长和防风险双底线下的宏观经济——2016年宏观经济形势分析与2017年预测

发布时间：2018-04-24 23:34

本文选题：筑底 + 债务风险　；参考：《经济理论与经济管理》2017年01期

【摘要】：2016年经济呈现出短期底部企稳与泡沫聚集的特点。在潜在增长平台下移、周期性、结构性以及趋势性因素共同作用的背景下,经济下行压力依然巨大,2017年宏观经济仍将持续筑底。而底部运行的深度和持续的长度取决于世界经济复苏程度、中国经济潜在增长水平、新产业新动能培育、房地产周期调整、政治经济周期波动以及对潜在风险的化解与对策等多种因素。与此同时,在"债务—投资"驱动模式下,我国债务规模快速攀升,债务水平已经积累至相当程度,债务的结构性风险突出,尤其是广义政府债务水平超出国际警戒线。而中国经济目前存在的深层次问题本质上大多与债务风险密切相关。比如资产泡沫的聚集,实际上是"债务—投资"驱动模式中投放的大量货币在股市、债市以及房地产等领域的伺机流动。债务风险有可能是引发中国经济爆发危机的关键点。从目前情况来看,中国具备防范危机的实力,但是对于可能引发危机的潜在因素必须重视。一方面,树立正确的危机观,不惧怕危机,建立危机应急机制。另一方面,在债务风险演变至债务危机前,防患于未然,建立风险缓释机制。
[Abstract]:2016 economy presents the short-term bottom stabilizes and the bubble gather characteristic. Against the backdrop of a downward, cyclical, structural and trending potential growth platform, the downward pressure on the economy remains enormous, and the economy will continue to bottom out in 2017. And the depth and length of the bottom run depends on the degree of recovery of the world economy, the level of potential economic growth in China, the cultivation of new industries and new momentum, and the adjustment of the real estate cycle. Political and economic cycle fluctuations and potential risk resolution and countermeasures and other factors. At the same time, under the "debt-investment" driving mode, China's debt scale is rising rapidly, the debt level has accumulated to a considerable extent, the structural risk of debt is prominent, especially the generalized government debt level exceeds the international warning line. However, most of the deep problems in Chinese economy are closely related to debt risk. The accumulation of asset bubbles, for example, is actually an opportunistic flow of large amounts of money invested in the debt-investment model in the stock market, bond markets and real estate. Debt risk is likely to trigger a crisis in China's economy a key point. As things stand, China has the strength to prevent crises, but it must pay attention to the underlying factors that could trigger them. On the one hand, set up the correct view of crisis, do not fear the crisis, establish a crisis emergency mechanism. On the other hand, before the debt risk evolves to the debt crisis, the risk mitigation mechanism should be established.
【基金】：“中国特色社会主义经济建设协同创新中心”子项目“认识适应和引领经济新常态研究”阶段性研究成果
【分类号】：F124

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