卫星应用系统脆弱性研究

发布时间：2018-06-07 03:01

本文选题：卫星应用系统 + 脆弱性　；参考：《北京理工大学》2015年博士论文

【摘要】：卫星通信、卫星遥感和卫星导航等技术正在由科学研究走向大众应用,并推动卫星应用产业成为一项战略新兴产业。卫星应用系统作为卫星技术和商业运营结合的依托载体,属于复杂的高科技电子信息系统,在技术运行时存在技术制约、系统故障和外部安全威胁等风险因素,在系统的规划、研制和商业运营过程中也面临着政治、经济、研发、管理等方面的风险。传统的系统风险研究主要基于可靠性理论和风险管理理论,利用可靠性方法在评估复杂系统时难以全面考虑人为因素、突发性威胁因素等影响,利用风险管理理论则多强调外界因素而忽视对系统自身因素的分析。脆弱性用于表征系统受到外部威胁时易损的程度及适应或恢复的能力,综合考虑了系统内部特性和外部风险因素,可以有效地解释系统对风险的应对能力问题。本文首先综述了国内外脆弱性理论和卫星应用技术与产业风险的研究状况,面向系统运行效能和系统寿命指标,分别提出卫星应用系统的技术脆弱性和非技术脆弱性概念。然后,通过分析典型的卫星应用系统结构和性能特征,建立了系统的一般功能结构模型。根据系统效能理论和装备全寿命周期理论,给出卫星应用系统的效能分配原则,并结合卫星应用产业模式特点,分别建立了卫星应用系统效能分配体系和寿命指标分配体系。再依据“风险-系统脆弱性-风险后果”的脆弱性理论模型,构造相应的系统技术脆弱性指标体系和非技术脆弱性指标体系。最后,在技术和非技术脆弱性体系模型的基础上,提出了基于“风险-系统-效能(寿命)”特征的脆弱性路径概念,通过不同脆弱性路径之间对比来找出相对较脆弱的环节。把系统的结构部件或全寿命周期各阶段看作系统节点,系统节点对于效能(寿命)指标的贡献用效能(寿命)分配权重因子表示,风险因素对系统节点的影响程度用风险影响权重因子表示。建立以两种权重因子为主要参数的数学模型,实现对不同路径的脆弱程度量化,实现系统的脆弱性评估。通过工程实例应用,验证了该评估方法的合理性和实用性。脆弱性理论是面向复杂系统特性研究的新型理论,已经有一些学者将该理论应用于航空航天等领域,在他们的研究成果启发下,本文的主要创新之处包括以下几点:(1)将脆弱性理论引入卫星应用技术与产业研究领域,构建基于风险理论的卫星应用系统脆弱性模型;(2)结合传统卫星应用技术及其发展趋势,提出统一的卫星应用系统定义,并建立卫星应用系统的一般结构模型;(3)根据系统效能理论和装备全寿命周期理论,分别建立针对于系统效能指标的系统技术脆弱性体系和针对全寿命周期指标的非技术脆弱性体系,将脆弱性理论研究与系统运行效能、全寿命周期理论相结合,使脆弱性理论研究更具现实意义;(4)结合主观赋权法和客观赋权法,建立一套综合的系统脆弱性评估方法,融合了专家主观信息和各属性指标间的客观差异性,并提出基于二元语义的灰色关联分析法,实现对不同方案的系统脆弱性比较,在工程应用中取得了较为理想的效果。
[Abstract]:Satellite communication, satellite remote sensing and satellite navigation technology are moving from scientific research to popular application, and promoting the satellite application industry to become a strategic new industry. Satellite application system, as the support carrier of satellite technology and commercial operation, is a complex high-tech electric sub information system. There are technical constraints in the operation of technology. Risk factors such as system failure and external security threat are also faced with the risk of political, economic, research and management in the process of system planning, development and business operation. The traditional system risk research is mainly based on the theory of reliability and risk management, and it is difficult to consider the people in a comprehensive way when evaluating the complex system by using the reliability method. In terms of factors, sudden threat factors and so on, the theory of risk management emphasizes external factors and neglects the analysis of the factors of the system. Vulnerability is used to characterize the degree of vulnerability and the ability to adapt or recover when the system is threatened by external threats. It takes into account the internal and external risk factors of the system, and can effectively explain the system. This paper first summarizes the domestic and foreign vulnerability theory and the research status of the satellite application technology and industrial risk, facing the system operation efficiency and the system life index, and respectively proposes the technical vulnerability and the non technical vulnerability of the satellite application system. Then, the typical satellite application system is analyzed. The general functional structure model of the system is established. According to the theory of system effectiveness and the theory of whole life cycle equipment, the principle of efficiency allocation for satellite application system is given. The efficiency distribution system of satellite application system and the distribution system of life index are established according to the characteristics of the satellite application industry model. The vulnerability theory model of risk system vulnerability risk consequence is constructed, and the corresponding system technology vulnerability index system and non technical vulnerability index system are constructed. Finally, on the basis of the technology and non technical vulnerability system model, the concept of vulnerability path based on the characteristics of "risk system effectiveness (life)" is put forward, and the difference is different from that of the system. A relatively fragile link is found between the vulnerability paths. The structural components of the system or all phases of the whole life cycle are regarded as the system nodes, and the contribution of the system nodes to the performance (life) index is expressed by the weight factor of the efficiency (life) allocation, and the impact of the risk factors on the system nodes is expressed by the risk influence weight factor. A mathematical model with two weight factors as the main parameter is established to quantify the vulnerability of different paths and to realize the vulnerability assessment of the system. The rationality and practicability of the evaluation method is verified by the application of an engineering example. The theory of vulnerability is a new theory for the research of the characteristics of complex systems. The main innovations of this paper are as follows: (1) introducing vulnerability theory into the field of satellite application and industry research, constructing the vulnerability model of satellite application system based on risk theory; (2) combining with the traditional satellite application technology and its development trend, The unified satellite application system definition and the general structure model of the satellite application system are established. (3) according to the system effectiveness theory and the equipment life cycle theory, the system technology vulnerability system and the non technical vulnerability system for the whole life cycle index are established respectively, and the vulnerability theory is studied and studied. The system operation efficiency and the whole life cycle theory combine to make the research of the vulnerability theory more realistic. (4) combining the subjective empowerment method and the objective empowerment method, a comprehensive system vulnerability assessment method is set up, which combines the subjective information of the expert and the objectivity difference between the attribute indexes, and puts forward the grey relational grade based on the two element semantics. The analysis method achieves the comparison of system vulnerabilities of different schemes, and achieves an ideal effect in engineering application.
【学位授予单位】：北京理工大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：V19;V474

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