涉林气候谈判对中国木材产品国际贸易影响机制的研究

发布时间：2018-06-25 04:36

本文选题：涉林气候谈判 + 木材产品　；参考：《东北林业大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：随着国际气候变化谈判的深入,各国纷纷以气候谈判框架公约为基础对本国的木材产品相关贸易政策和林业政策进行调整,以保护本国的森林资源。这些政策措施在保护森林资源的同时,也会对木材产品国际贸易产生一定的冲击和影响。目前学者们对于涉林气候谈判对中国木材产品国际贸易的影响的研究大多还停留在逻辑推理阶段,推测气候谈判可能会通过一系列关税或非关税措施直接或间接地对木材产品国际贸易产生影响。事实上,气候谈判中的涉林议题必将对包括中国在内的世界各国的木材产品相关贸易政策和林业政策、木材产业的经济发展和技术创新产生重大影响,从而影响到木材产品国际贸易水平。因此,深入探究涉林气候谈判是否以及如何对木材产品国际贸易产生影响,不仅有助于相关理论研究的推进,而且能够为推进我国木材产品国际贸易健康发展提供理论指导。具体来讲,本研究围绕以下几个方面展开：首先,对国内外关于气候谈判与木材产品国际贸易的相关研究分别进行综述,发现关于涉林气候谈判影响木材产品国际贸易机制的研究缺口,然后提出本文的研究问题。此外,对气候变化、气候谈判、涉林气候谈判等关键概念进行了界定,确定了本研究选定的木材产品统计范围,并概述了本文的相关基础理论。随后,阐释了气候谈判的发展历程、重要国际气候谈判中的林业议题、涉林气候谈判的政治、经济和技术意义,并对涉林气候谈判背景下各国所采取的应对政策和行动进行梳理。其次,重点剖析涉林气候谈判影响木材产品国际贸易的政策传导机制。本文所指的政策传导机制是指,涉林气候谈判是通过影响各国制定和调整与木材产品国际贸易相关的林业政策和贸易政策,从而对木材产品国际贸易产生影响。涉林气候谈判形成的《联合国气候变化框架公约》和《京都议定书》等法律文件确立了森林资源在应对气候变化和气候谈判中的战略作用,各国制定相应的林业政策和木材产品贸易政策来打击非法采伐,从而实现林业的健康发展。然而,这些林业政策和贸易政策很容易带上贸易保护主义色彩,对木材产品的生产、供给和贸易结构产生影响。在此基础上本文进一步对涉林气候谈判影响木材产品国际贸易的经济效应进行分析,发现涉林气候谈判会通过上述政策传导机制对木材产品贸易的数量和价格产生抑制作用。再次,在前文定性分析的基础上,定量检验涉林气候谈判的政策效应。通过政策梳理确立涉林气候谈判的政策效应指标体系；在广泛征求专家意见的基础上确定最终的评价指标及指标权重；随后开展问卷调研,重点考察涉林气候谈判的三个国际会议对中国木材产品贸易相关政策的影响程度。研究结果表明涉林气候谈判的国际会议对木材产品相关政策产生了影响。同时,三个会议对我国相关贸易政策和林业政策的影响程度基本是同等的。这意味着涉林气候谈判确实会导致政府制定和调整林业政策和木材产品国际贸易相关政策,目的是为了保护本国森林资源,从而更好地发挥森林资源在应对气候变化和气候谈判中的作用。然后,基于涉林气候谈判政策效应的定量分析结果,进一步实证检验涉林气候谈判政策效应对中国木材产品国际贸易的影响。鉴于与贸易政策相比,林业政策对木材产品贸易具有一定的时滞性和隐蔽性,因此本文重点选取涉林气候谈判所导致的木材产品相关贸易政策作为研究对象,首先从理论上分析贸易政策影响木材产品进口和出口的理论机制,其次建立拓展的引力模型,以中国对欧盟主要国家的进出口数据为基础,分别实证检验涉林气候谈判对中国胶合板出口的影响,以及涉林气候谈判对中国原木进口的影响。研究发现,涉林气候谈判所引起的政策设置对中国胶合板出口具有正向影响,而对中国原木进口具有负向影响。这一研究发现验证了涉林气候谈判导致的木材产品贸易相关政策确实会对我国木材产品贸易产生影响,而且结果表明涉林气候谈判对我国不同木材产品进出口的影响存在差异。最后,此基础上进一步从政府、行业和企业三个不同层面,提出我国应对涉林气候谈判、推进木材产品国际贸易健康发展的对策建议。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of the international climate change negotiations, countries have adjusted their own timber products related trade policies and forestry policies on the basis of the Framework Convention on climate negotiations to protect their own forest resources. These policies and measures will also have a certain impact and shadow on the international trade in wood products while protecting forest resources. At present, most scholars have studied the influence of forest climate negotiations on the international trade of wood products in China. Most of them still remain in the logical reasoning stage. It is presumed that climate negotiations may have a direct or indirect effect on the international trade of wood products through a series of tariff or non-tariff measures. In fact, the forest related issues in climate negotiations must be discussed. It will have a significant impact on the trade policies and forestry policies of wood products, economic development and technological innovation of the wood industry in all countries, including China, which will affect the international trade level of wood products. It is helpful to promote the research of relevant theories and to provide theoretical guidance for the healthy development of international trade in wood products in China.
First, a review of the relevant studies on climate negotiations and international trade in wood products was made, and the research gaps on the impact of forest related climate negotiations on the international trade mechanism of wood products were found, and then the research issues were put forward. The statistical scope of the selected timber products was determined and the relevant basic theory of this paper was outlined. Then, the development process of climate negotiations, the forestry issues in the important international climate negotiations, the political, economic and technical significance of the forest climate negotiations, and the policies and actions taken by various countries under the context of the negotiation of forest climate negotiations were discussed. The movement is combed.
Secondly, the policy transmission mechanism of forest climate negotiations affecting the international trade of wood products is analyzed. The policy transmission mechanism referred to in this paper refers to the forestry policy and trade policy related to the international trade of wood products, which affects the international trade of wood products, and has a influence on the international trade of wood products. Legal documents, such as the United Nations Framework Convention on climate change and the Kyoto Protocol, have established the strategic role of forest resources in dealing with climate change and climate negotiations. Countries have formulated corresponding forestry policies and trade policies for timber products to combat illegal logging and thus achieve the healthy development of forestry. Industry policy and trade policy are easy to take on trade protectionism and have an impact on the production, supply and trade structure of wood products. On this basis, this paper further analyzes the economic effects of forest climate negotiations affecting the international trade of wood products. The quantity and price of product trade have a restraining effect.
Thirdly, on the basis of qualitative analysis, the policy effect of forest climate negotiation is tested quantitatively. The policy effect index system of forest related climate negotiation is established through policy, and the final evaluation index and index weight are determined on the basis of extensive consultation of experts, and then a questionnaire survey is carried out to focus on the negotiation of forest related climate negotiations. The impact of the three international conferences on China's timber trade related policies showed that the International Conference on forest related climate negotiations had an impact on the policy of timber products. At the same time, the impact of the three meetings on China's related trade policies and forestry policies was basically equal. It will lead to the government's formulation and adjustment of policies on forestry policies and international trade in wood products, with the aim of protecting their own forest resources and thus making better use of the role of forest resources in climate change and climate negotiations.
Then, based on the quantitative analysis results of the policy effect of forest climate negotiation, the influence of the policy effect of forest climate negotiation on the international trade of China's timber products is further tested. In view of the time lag and concealment of the forestry policy to the trade of wood products, the emphasis of this paper is to select the forest climate negotiations. The related trade policy of wood products is the research object. First, the theoretical mechanism of trade policy affecting the import and export of wood products is theoretically analyzed. Secondly, an extended gravitational model is established. Based on the import and export data of the main EU countries, the export of China's plywood export is verified. The impact of forest climate negotiations on the import of Chinese logs has been found. It is found that the policy setting caused by forest climate negotiations has a positive impact on the export of China's plywood, but has a negative impact on the import of China's logs. It has an impact on China's timber products trade, and the results show that there are differences in the impact of forest related climate negotiations on the import and export of different timber products in China.
Finally, on this basis, from three different levels of government, industry and enterprise, we put forward some countermeasures and suggestions to deal with forest climate negotiations and promote the healthy development of international trade in wood products.
【学位授予单位】：东北林业大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.88;F752

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